Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs Quarterfinals Preview

Timothy Rosario | 4 Hours Ago

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ahead of the FCS Playoffs, we examined some of the most important advanced stats on offense and defense. These stats helped us better understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses and how teams will perform over the final months of the season.

Below, we go behind the numbers for each quarterfinal matchup of the FCS Playoffs.

NOTE: Overall statistical rankings come from FCS Football Central’s average of several important factors. Rankings can be found in the Behind The Numbers article below.

Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs

No. 8 Idaho at No. 1 Montana State

	Montana State	Idaho
Off. Success Rate	54.73% (1st)	44.08% (7th)
Yards Per Play	7.57 (1st)	6.35 (6th)
Red Zone TD%	81.13% (1st)	70.21% (5th)
Yards Per Carry	6.89 (1st)	4.67 (6th)
Yards Per Pass	9.03 (3rd)	8.61 (5th)
TFL% Allowed	4.45% (2nd)	8.55% (7th)
Pressure% Allowed	17.26% (4th)	17.49% (5th)
TO%	0.94% (3rd)	1.66% (5th)
Def. Success Rate	33.95% (2nd)	41.24% (8th)
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.78 (2nd)	5.20 (7th)
Def. Red Zone TD%	68.97% (8th)	59.09% (6th)
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.77 (7th)	3.65 (5th)
Yards Per Pass Allowed	5.73 (1st)	6.85 (5th)
TFL%	9.65% (4th)	8.17% (6th)
Pressure%	40.47% (5th)	40.7% (4th)
TO% Forced	1.75% (8th)	1.77% (7th)

These two programs meet again with a trip to the semifinals on the line. Montana State defeated Idaho 38-7 earlier this season, but the Vandals were without starting quarterback Jack Layne. Everything begins with Montana State's offense, which ranks No. 1 in success rate and yards per play. The Bobcats are dominant down-to-down and produce explosive plays at an extremely high rate. If the Vandals cannot find a way to contain this offense, the chances of an upset are low.

Montana State's offense starts with a potent rushing attack, averaging over 6.8 yards per carry. Idaho has a formidable rushing defense, holding opponents to 3.65 yards per carry. In the first matchup, the Vandals did a solid job limiting explosive plays from the running backs but allowed Tommy Mellott to rush for 140 yards on only ten carries. Idaho must contain Tommy Mellott this weekend, who just had one of the best performances of his career last weekend. If the Vandals can force Montana State to pass, Idaho can utilize its pass rush to make things uncomfortable. Idaho has generated pressure on 40.7% of dropbacks and did a solid job with 15 pressures on 22 dropbacks in the first matchup.

All eyes are on quarterback Jack Layne, who will be crucial if the Vandals want to pull off the upset. Idaho's strategy has been establishing the run, controlling the clock, and setting up deep shots to wide receivers Jordan Dwyer and Mark Hamper. This is the formula the Vandals used to stun the Bobcats last season, but it will be a more challenging task this weekend. Montana State is holding opponents to 5.73 yards per attempt and has excelled in limiting explosive plays in the passing game. Jack Layne will need to make plays with his legs and extend the pocket. The pace of the game could be a deciding factor here. A high-possession game favors the Bobcats, while a low-possession game could help the Vandals escape with the win.

Prediction: Montana State 38, Idaho 20

No. 6 Incarnate Word at No. 3 South Dakota State

	South Dakota State	Incarnate Word
Off. Success Rate	48.97% (4th)	45.08% (6th)
Yards Per Play	6.85 (3rd)	6.12 (7th)
Red Zone TD%	70.91% (4th)	56.14% (8th)
Yards Per Carry	6.36 (2nd)	4.82 (5th)
Yards Per Pass	7.58 (7th)	7.36 (8th)
TFL% Allowed	4.21% (1st)	7.95% (6th)
Pressure% Allowed	21.54% (7th)	15.83% (1st)
TO%	1.20% (4th)	1.78% (7th)
Def. Success Rate	36.29% (3rd)	36.79% (4th)
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.56 (1st)	4.97 (5th)
Def. Red Zone TD%	36% (2nd)	35.14% (1st)
Yards Per Carry Allowed	2.97 (2nd)	3.64 (4th)
Yards Per Pass Allowed	6.14 (2nd)	6.29 (3rd)
TFL%	10.19% (3rd)	10.22% (2nd)
Pressure%	42.26% (3rd)	38.32% (6th)
TO% Forced	2.42% (4th)	3.29% (2nd)

In another rematch, Incarnate Word travels to Brookings again after a 45-24 loss to South Dakota State earlier this season. Both teams have changed significantly since that Week 2 matchup in September. Incarnate Word struggled to get off the field on third down, allowing the Jackrabbits to convert on 10 of 13 attempts. These are the top two defenses in red zone touchdown rate, allowing a touchdown on only 36% of red zone opportunities. In the first game, South Dakota State was held to a field goal on its first two red zone trips but scored touchdowns on the following four opportunities. The Cardinals were inside the South Dakota State 30-yard line three times but only scored one touchdown.

Incarnate Word is known for its high-powered offense, but the defense has been the strongest aspect of this team. Entering the postseason, Incarnate Word's defense ranked No. 3 among playoff teams. The Cardinals constantly find themselves in high-possession games due to their style of play, similar to last week when they generated over 430 yards of total offense. That number is misleading because the Cardinals ran over 85 plays, generating only 5.0 yards per play. Consistency is the biggest concern for this offense, posting the sixth-best success rate of the remaining teams. Incarnate Word does have some of the best individual talent in the nation, led by Zach Calzada and Jalen Walthall. In this matchup, Calzada's ability to use his legs will be huge, but he must have his best performance against an elite South Dakota State defense. The Jackrabbits rank in the top three in every advanced statistic we tracked this season.

In the last matchup, Incarnate Word struggled to generate negative plays and limit explosive plays in the air. The Jackrabbits have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, which will put more pressure on Incarnate Word to load the box and create downfield opportunities for Mark Gronowksi and Griffin Wilde. South Dakota State averages over 6.3 yards per carry and averaged 5.5 yards per carry against the Cardinals in the first matchup.

Prediction: South Dakota State 37, Incarnate Word 17

No. 5 UC Davis at No. 4 South Dakota

	South Dakota	UC Davis
Off. Success Rate	54.67% (2nd)	47.83% (5th)
Yards Per Play	7.56 (2nd)	6.54 (4th)
Red Zone TD%	77.27% (2nd)	66.10% (6th)
Yards Per Carry	6.31 (3rd)	4.06 (8th)
Yards Per Pass	9.57 (1st)	8.83 (4th)
TFL% Allowed	5.07% (3rd)	7.47% (5th)
Pressure% Allowed	21.31% (6th)	17.18% (3rd)
TO%	0.85% (2nd)	1.71% (6th)
Def. Success Rate	38.08% (6th)	37.18% (5th)
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.88 (4th)	5.18 (6th)
Def. Red Zone TD%	62.06% (7th)	56.82% (5th)
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.19 (3rd)	3.69 (6th)
Yards Per Pass Allowed	6.99 (6th)	6.50 (4th)
TFL%	7.54% (7th)	7.30% (8th)
Pressure%	35.29% (7th)	26.87% (8th)
TO% Forced	1.89% (6th)	2.23% (5th)

This matchup appears to be one of the most exciting on paper, with the ability to turn into a shootout. South Dakota will lean on its rushing attack and create explosive plays downfield off the run. The Coyotes have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging 7.56 yards per play. South Dakota has the second-best success rate among postseason teams and leads all teams in yards per pass attempt. UC Davis has struggled to generate negative plays, ranking last in TFL and pressure rate among playoff teams. The Aggies have relied on solid base defense but are not elite at any given position. The secondary is the strongest positional group, holding opponents to 6.5 yards per pass attempt.

Everything for UC Davis starts with the passing attack, which has excelled due to elite weapons and excellent pass blocking. Despite having one of the best running backs in the nation, UC Davis is only averaging 4.06 yards per carry, ranking last among remaining playoff teams. This could be the matchup to watch against South Dakota's defense, which has held opponents to 3.19 yards per carry. Larison's ability to excel as a wide receiver is the most dangerous aspect of this offense. Quarterback Miles Hastings has been excellent this season, averaging over 8.8 yards per pass attempt. South Dakota allowed over 7.0 yards per attempt last weekend against Tarleton State, which could lead to the Aggies finding success downfield.

Prediction: South Dakota 35, UC Davis 31

No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State

	North Dakota State	Mercer
Off. Success Rate	53.46% (3rd)	42.45% (8th)
Yards Per Play	6.45 (5th)	5.81 (8th)
Red Zone TD%	75.76% (3rd)	57.14% (7th)
Yards Per Carry	4.83 (4th)	4.21 (7th)
Yards Per Pass	9.16 (2nd)	8.32 (6th)
TFL% Allowed	6.15% (4th)	11.03% (8th)
Pressure% Allowed	16.67% (2nd)	26.11% (8th)
TO%	0.47% (1st)	2.42% (8th)
Def. Success Rate	40.68% (7th)	31.62% (1st)
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.56 (8th)	4.86 (3rd)
Def. Red Zone TD%	55.56% (4th)	51.52% (3rd)
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.95 (8th)	2.23 (1st)
Yards Per Pass Allowed	7.30 (8th)	7.10 (7th)
TFL%	9.50% (5th)	12.46% (1st)
Pressure%	43.29% (2nd)	47.34% (1st)
TO% Forced	3.04% (3rd)	3.84% (1st)

Both teams were uncomfortable in their second-round games. They faced early deficits but found a way to win in the second half. This game is intriguing as one of the best defenses in the nation meets one of the nation's best offenses. Mercer has held opponents to 2.23 yards per carry, leading all postseason teams. The Bears have also generated negative plays on 12.46% of snaps and created pressure on 47.34% of dropbacks this season; both rank No. 1 nationally. An interesting statistic is Mercer's 3.84% turnover rate defensively, which leads the nation, but North Dakota State leads the nation with a 0.47% turnover rate offensively. The Bears will need to force turnovers to have a chance to pull off the upset this weekend.

Mercer's defense should be able to find success against North Dakota State's rushing attack, which has struggled to produce explosive plays. The Bison were held in check by Abilene Christian last weekend, averaging under 4.0 yards per carry. The problem is that Mercer's secondary allows over 7.0 yards per attempt, which could be an issue against North Dakota State's Cam Miller. Miller has had the best season of his career, averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt. Mercer must generate pressure and contain Miller, forcing him into uncharacteristic mistakes.

The biggest roadblock for Mercer is its lack of offensive success. The Bears have relied on running back Dwayne McGee but rank seventh among remaining teams with 4.21 yards per carry. The offensive line has experienced some growing pains this season. The unit ranks last among quarterfinal teams, allowing a negative play on 11% of snaps. North Dakota State ranks last among playoff teams in yards per play allowed but has done an excellent job creating negative plays and generating pressure. The Bison generate pressure on 43.29% of dropbacks and create negative plays on 9.5% of snaps. North Dakota State forces a turnover on 3% of snaps, which is a concern for a young Mercer offense that ranks last in turnover rate.

Prediction: North Dakota State 31, Mercer 6

More FCS Football News

2024 FCS Football Central Freshman All-American Team
2024 FCS Playoffs: Second-Round Recap
2024-25 FCS Football Head Coaching Change Tracker
2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

---

Follow FCS Football Central on social media for ongoing coverage of FCS football, including on X, Facebook, and YouTube.