Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs Semifinals Preview

Timothy Rosario | 7 Hours Ago

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ahead of the FCS Playoffs, we examined some of the most important advanced stats on offense and defense. These stats helped us better understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses and how teams will perform over the final months of the season.

Below, we go behind the numbers for each semifinal matchup of the FCS Playoffs.

NOTE: Overall statistical rankings come from FCS Football Central’s average of several important factors. Rankings can be found in the Behind The Numbers article below.

Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs

No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 2 North Dakota State

	North Dakota State	South Dakota State
Off. Success Rate	52.64%	49.26%
Yards Per Play	6.41	6.93
Red Zone TD%	75.36%	70.49%
Yards Per Carry	4.72	6.37
Yards Per Pass	9.22	7.77
TFL% Allowed	6.78%	4.04%
Pressure% Allowed	19.35%	21.72%
TO%	0.65%	1.35%
Def. Success Rate	39.64%	37.07%
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.45	4.55
Def. Red Zone TD%	55.56%	37.93%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.92	2.99
Yards Per Pass Allowed	7.15	6.02
TFL%	10.01%	9.97%
Pressure%	44.66%	41.45%
TO% Forced	2.97%	2.43%

Our first semifinal game gives us a massive matchup between the two most dominant FCS teams of the last decade. In this preview, we will begin by looking at the Week 8 matchup between these programs, where the Bison defeated the Jackrabbits 13-9 in Fargo. Many things will be different this weekend, including a trip to the national championship being on the line. Both teams should be much healthier, but the first game gives a baseline for this weekend's semifinal matchup.

North Dakota State was more consistent offensively in the first matchup, posting a 46% success rate compared to South Dakota State's 35% success rate. Both teams struggled to establish the run, highlighted by North Dakota State's 3.5 yards per carry and its failure in multiple short-yardage situations. South Dakota State's Chase Mason had an explosive 66-yard touchdown run, but the running backs only averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

The most significant difference in the game was Cam Miller's clutch game-winning touchdown drive. He was 7-for-7 on the final drive, finding RaJa Nelson for the 20-yard touchdown. Before that drive, both teams struggled to find success passing. South Dakota State averaged 3.9 yards per attempt, while the Bison were not much better until the final drive. An overlooked aspect of North Dakota State's win was the Bison's ability to generate pressure. South Dakota State had the game's only sack, but the Bison finished with 15 pressures compared to the Jackrabbits' seven pressures. This was one of the biggest reasons South Dakota State's passing attack struggled.

One thing that is unlikely to change in this matchup is North Dakota State's inability to run the ball against South Dakota State's defense. The Jackrabbits have the best run defense in the nation, holding opponents to 2.99 yards per carry. The Bison were held under four yards per carry against Abilene Christian and Mercer, which could be a sign of things to come this weekend. This could put pressure on quarterback Cam Miller to make plays through the air. The Bison have one of the most effective passing attacks in the country, averaging 9.22 yards per attempt.

North Dakota State's offensive line dominated the first matchup, giving Miller plenty of time in the pocket. This unit has been one of the best pass-blocking groups in the nation, allowing pressure on only 19.3% of dropbacks. One potential concern is that Mercer successfully generated pressure, sacking Miller four times and posting ten tackles for loss. South Dakota State has generated pressure on 41.45% of all dropbacks this season but could not find that same success against the Bison. If the South Dakota State creates pressure and makes Miller uncomfortable in the pocket, the Jackrabbits will be in a great position to pull off the upset.

On the other side of the ball, everything starts with South Dakota State's rushing attack. The Jackrabbits rank No. 2 in yards per carry (6.37) and utilize a variety of playmakers to find success on the ground. The x-factor this weekend could be freshman running back Kirby Vorhees, who did not play in the first matchup. Vorhees gives the offense a downhill power back that may allow the Jackrabbits to wear down North Dakota State's front seven. This will be the most important key for South Dakota State, which lacked down-to-down success in the first matchup.

The Bison have been excellent against the run, holding their past six opponents to 3.68 yards per carry. Abilene Christian found early success with a 90-yard touchdown run, but the Bison did a solid job limiting the run late in that game. Where do the Jackrabbits turn if the Bison contain South Dakota State's rushing attack? The attention will shift to wide receiver Griffin Wilde, who failed to make a significant impact in the first game. He averages 82 yards per game this season but finished with only four receptions for 25 yards against the Bison. The North Dakota State secondary has been vulnerable to explosive plays downfield, allowing over 7.1 yards per pass. This could create some opportunities for Mark Gronwoski to push the ball downfield against the Bison.

Another important aspect of this matchup will likely be red zone efficiency. South Dakota State has the best red zone defense in the nation, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on only 38% of red zone trips. In close matchups between elite teams, offenses that are forced to kick field goals in the red zone often lose. A touchdown in one red-zone trip is better than two field goals, and I think that may be the difference in this game.

Prediction: South Dakota State (21-20)

No. 4 South Dakota at No. 1 Montana State

	Montana State	South Dakota
Off. Success Rate	54.35%	54.08%
Yards Per Play	7.47	7.46
Red Zone TD%	83.33%	76.47%
Yards Per Carry	6.76	6.09
Yards Per Pass	9.04	9.68
TFL% Allowed	4.22%	5.07%
Pressure% Allowed	17.58%	20.06%
TO%	0.97%	1.17%
Def. Success Rate	34.21%	38.93%
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.92	4.93
Def. Red Zone TD%	62.35%	61.76%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.91	3.18
Yards Per Pass Allowed	5.85	6.94
TFL%	9.68%	7.28%
Pressure%	39.88%	33.41%
TO% Forced	1.87%	2.43%

In the next semifinal matchup, No. 4 South Dakota makes the trip to Bozeman to face No. 1 Montana State. Some people may doubt the legitimacy of South Dakota's status as a title contender, but this team has continued to prove that it belongs in that conversation all season long. This matchup features two of the top offenses in all of Division I football, measured by success rate. The Bobcats lead the nation with a 54.3% success rate, while South Dakota ranks No. 2 at 54.1%. The defenses have been comparable, giving up 4.9 yards per play, but South Dakota has the edge against the run, while the Bobcats have the edge in pass defense.

Much has been made of South Dakota's defensive struggles over the past few weeks. The Coyotes have a tough time defending elite passing attacks due to the lack of pass rush. They rank last among semifinal teams in pressure rate (33.41%), which is odd given the amount of talent in the front seven. The Coyotes have been much more efficient in stopping the run than generating an elite pass rush. The Coyotes struggled to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket, which led to coverage breakdowns over the middle of the field. The good news for South Dakota is that Montana State is not an elite passing attack, but the Bobcats will look to establish the run.

Still, Montana State's rushing attack is one of the best in the nation and presents challenges that the Coyotes have not seen this season. The Bobcats average 6.76 yards per carry and have continued to dominate despite multiple injuries to key players. The biggest question is how well South Dakota can contain quarterback Tommy Mellott. Mellott led the rushing attack with 131 yards against Idaho and had the best passing performance of his career against UT Martin the week before. An overlooked aspect of this Montana State offense is the efficiency in the red zone. The Bobcats are scoring a touchdown on 83.33% of red zone opportunities. South Dakota has struggled to limit touchdowns in the red zone, which could limit the possibility of an upset this weekend.

South Dakota will test Montana State's depth in the front seven with a power-rushing attack. The Coyotes average over six yards per carry and are led by two All-Conference running backs. Montana State allowed over six yards per carry against Idaho, but some yardage came after the game was out of hand. This may be the best overall rushing offense that the Bobcats have faced this season.

The Coyotes build their passing attack off the running game, ranking No. 1 in yards per pass attempt (9.68). This is an area that Montana State is well equipped to defend, as the Bobcats are allowing the lowest yards per pass attempt in the postseason. The Bobcats have also done an excellent job generating pressure and creating negative plays. This could be something to watch after South Dakota had two offensive linemen struggle with injuries against UC Davis last weekend.

One of the biggest keys to the game will be turnovers. Both teams have done an excellent job of protecting the ball and neither team entered the postseason with a high turnover rate. That narrative has flipped as South Dakota has forced nine turnovers in the past two games. This game should be much closer than many anticipate, but Tommy Mellott's ability to make plays and home-field advantage will push the Bobcats to Frisco.

Prediction: Montana State (27-24)

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