Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs Semifinals Review

Timothy Rosario | 12 Hours Ago

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s semifinal games below.

North Dakota State 28, South Dakota State 21

	North Dakota State	South Dakota State
Success Rate	46.3%	36.9%
Yards Per Play	5.9	5.0
Pressure Rate	44.82%	19.23%
TFL Rate	15.38%	7.4%
Red Zone TD%	100%	100%
3rd/4th Down%	58.33%	50%

North Dakota State secured a trip to Frisco and the national championship game through individual brilliance from Cam Miller and Bryce Lance. Miller put the Bison on his back in the most crucial moments, recording 280 total yards and four touchdowns. Lance was the best athlete on the field with 125 receiving yards and three touchdowns, highlighted by his game-winning one-handed grab in the fourth quarter.

Just as much credit should be given to the North Dakota State offensive line and front seven, which won the battle at the line of scrimmage. While the Bison struggled to run the ball, averaging only 2.8 yards per carry with their running backs, they dominated the Jackrabbits in pass protection. North Dakota State only allowed five pressures and allowed Cam Miller to remain comfortable in the pocket. The unit also allowed Miller to escape the pocket multiple times, making key plays with his legs.

On the other side, North Dakota State neutralized a dominant South Dakota State rushing attack. Despite some early success, the Jackrabbits were held to 3.2 yards per carry. After Amar Johnson's 39-yard touchdown run, South Dakota State's running backs only generated 42 yards on 23 carries, averaging 1.83 yards per carry. The Bison were disruptive up front, posting 10 tackles for loss led by Kody Huisman and Logan Kopp. North Dakota State also made Gronowski uncomfortable in the picket, generating pressure on 44.8% of all dropbacks.

Montana State 31, South Dakota 17

	Montana State	South Dakota
Success Rate	45.3%	44.2%
Yards Per Play	5.3	7.0
Pressure Rate	51.61%	29.16%
TFL Rate	3.85%	6.25%
Red Zone TD%	66.67%	0%
3rd/4th Down%	46.67%	25%

The analytics show that this game was highly competitive, with both offenses having nearly identical success down-to-down. South Dakota was more explosive than Montana State, averaging 9.3 yards per carry when giving the ball to Travis Theis or Charles Pierre Jr. The Coyotes did a solid job at limiting Adam Jones and Scottre Humphrey, as the duo combined for 106 yards on 29 carries, averaging 3.7 yards per attempt.

The difference in this game was Montana State's ability to dominate South Dakota in key moments. The Bobcats scored touchdowns on two of their three red zone attempts, while the Coyotes failed to generate touchdowns on all three red zone trips. The Coyotes were inefficient on third and fourth down, converting on 3-of-12, while Montana State was much more efficient, finishing 7-of-15.

Another difference was the dynamic play of Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott, who consistently made key plays for the Bobcats. He finished the game with over 250 total yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, the Bobcats generated constant pressure on Aidan Bouman, finishing with two sacks in crucial moments. Montana State was better than South Dakota in the margins, which secured their spot in the FCS national championship.

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