Behind The Numbers: FCS National Championship Preview

Timothy Rosario | Jan 1, 2025

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Ahead of the FCS Playoffs, we examined some of the most important advanced stats on offense and defense. These stats helped us better understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses and how teams will perform over the final months of the season.

Below, we go behind the numbers for the FCS National Championship game between Montana State and North Dakota State.

Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs

	Montana State	North Dakota State
Off. Success Rate	53.65%	52.26%
Yards Per Play	7.33	6.38
Red Zone TD%	82.54%	76.05%
Yards Per Carry	6.59	4.68
Yards Per Pass	8.98	9.23
TFL% Allowed	4.33%	7.01%
Pressure% Allowed	17.82%	19.32%
TO%	0.91%	0.61%
Def. Success Rate	34.92%	39.42%
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.04	5.42
Def. Red Zone TD%	58.82%	57.89%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	4.0	3.86
Yards Per Pass Allowed	5.99	7.19
TFL%	9.34%	10.40%
Pressure%	40.66%	44.70%
TO% Forced	1.87%	2.86%

The FCS National Championship game is finally here. On Jan. 6, No. 1 Montana State and No. 2 North Dakota State will meet in Frisco, Texas. Plenty of storylines surrounding this game will be covered across the country, but let's examine how these teams compare on the field.

Montana State has been the most consistent, dominant team down-to-down in FCS football this season. The Bobcats have a net success rate of 18.72%, which ranks No. 1 nationally. North Dakota State's net success rate is 12.84%, still among the best at the FCS level. This measure shows how dominant a team has been down-to-down while factoring in the strength of each team's schedule.

When Montana State has the ball, it starts with their spread option attack. The Bobcats rank No. 2 nationally in rushing offense and lead the nation in yards per carry (6.59). North Dakota State's rushing defense has been stout over the second half of the season. Last week, the Bison held a potent South Dakota State rushing attack to 3.2 yards per carry and only allowed one explosive play on the ground.

An interesting trend has been Montana State's running backs in the postseason. In three playoff games, they have only averaged 4.86 yards per carry. One factor is the health of starting running back Scottre Humphrey, who has been limited since the end of the regular season. The extra week of rest could benefit the Bobcats, allowing their running backs to return to full strength.

What separates Montana State's rushing attack from the rest of the country is quarterback Tommy Mellott. It is an element North Dakota State's defense has not seen all season. Mellott has only had 10 or more carries in four games this season, but three have been in the past four. In the past two weeks, Mellott has recorded 256 rushing yards on 31 carries.

Montana State has utilized Mellott's athleticism differently this season. Instead of power reads up the middle, the Bobcats have called many more outside zone plays for Mellott. This has been a key factor in keeping him healthy compared to previous seasons when he struggled with injuries. Mellott also does an excellent job of picking up yards with his legs on broken plays. It will be essential for North Dakota State's defense to tackle in open space, limiting explosive plays for the Bobcats.

North Dakota State's rushing defense performed well against South Dakota and South Dakota State. However, those teams utilize a gap scheme and heavy personnel to run downhill, but that feeds right into the strength of North Dakota State's defense. Defensive tackles Eli Mostaert and Kody Huisman have been dominant this season, combining for 19 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.

Montana State will attack the Bison defense very differently, utilizing a zone attack with more reads and RPOs, attacking more areas of the field. A better comparison would be the offense that the Bison saw against ETSU earlier this season, which features another athletic quarterback in Jaylen King. ETSU finished the game with over 270 rushing yards and 7.1 yards per carry. The Bison have improved since that game, but there could be a blueprint for the Bobcats to find success.

On the other side of the ball, North Dakota State's downfield passing attack will be the key to the game. Although I do not expect the Bison to be very effective in running the football, they will attempt to establish the run early, setting up play-action shots later in the game. North Dakota State averages only 4.68 yards per carry and has been held to 4.0 yards or less per carry in their last four games. Montana State has held opponents to 3.8 yards per carry, allowing 150 or more rushing yards only twice this season.

Due to this, I expect North Dakota State to lean on Cam Miller's arm in this game. Miller has done an excellent job generating explosive plays through the air, averaging 9.23 yards per pass attempt. Pass protection has been a massive factor in North Dakota State's offensive success. The Bison are allowing pressure on only 19% of dropbacks, highlighted by only allowing five pressures against South Dakota State in the semifinals.

The strength of Montana State's defense has been the secondary. It is a veteran unit that has held opponents to only 5.99 yards per pass attempt. They complement one of the best pass-rushing duos in the FCS, which has excelled in generating pressure even if they do not record a sack. The Bobcats are generating pressure on 41% of all dropbacks and did an excellent job against a strong South Dakota offensive line in the semifinals.

The matchup between Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV against Grey Zabel and Mason Miller could be one of the most significant deciding factors in this game. The Bison offensive line has been fantastic all season but allowed four sacks and 16 pressures against a talented Mercer defensive line. The Bobcats will need to find a way to have similar success on Monday night.

Championship games seem to always come down to winning in the margins. Whether it is third- and fourth-down efficiency or red zone opportunities, capitalizing on key moments will always matter when two elite teams meet in these games. The team that gets off the field on third down and forces field goals in the red zone has a significant advantage.

Both offenses have been elite in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on over 75% of red zone attempts. Montana State leads the nation with a red zone touchdown percentage of 82.5%. Defensively, these teams have allowed touchdowns on 58% of red zone opportunities, around the national average at the FCS level. The Bobcats appear to have the advantage on third downs, holding opponents to 32% compared to 42% for the Bison defense.

This game should be highly competitive; one play or mistake could flip the outcome. I expect to see an offensive battle, as both teams feature two of the most efficient offenses in the nation. Montana State's experience in the secondary and the vast number of offensive weapons tip the scales here. I expect the Bobcats to break through and win their first national title since 1984.

Prediction: Montana State 35, North Dakota State 31

More FCS Football News

FCS National Championship: Offensive Spotlight
FCS National Championship: Defensive Spotlight
History Of The FCS National Championship Game
Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs Semifinals Review
2024 FCS Playoffs: Official Bracket, Schedule, Scores

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