Behind The Numbers: North Dakota State Upsets South Dakota State In Dakota Marker

Timothy Rosario | Oct 20, 2024

Tim Sanger (NDSU Athletics)

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week, but this week, we had to take an even deeper look at one of the season's biggest games.

The Dakota Marker returns to Fargo for the first time since 2019. No. 2 North Dakota State ended a five-game losing streak to the Jacks, defeating No. 1 South Dakota State 13-9 on Saturday night.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from North Dakota State's massive win over South Dakota State below.

North Dakota State 13, South Dakota State 9

Success Rate: NDSU (47%), SDSU (35%)

The No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup lived up to the hype on Saturday night. It was a defensive slugfest that came down the wire, with the Bison winning their first Dakota Marker since 2019.

North Dakota State was the more consistent, efficient offense down-to-down with a success rate of 47%, while South Dakota State only posted a success rate of 35%. Despite the low success rate, the Jackrabbits stayed in the game due to stellar play on third and fourth downs. South Dakota State converted on 8-of-16 of its attempts, while North Dakota State was only 5-for-13 in those situations.

Before the game, we discussed that the Bison were more efficient offensively, but South Dakota State was the more explosive offense. The Jackrabbits had the game's most explosive play as Chase Mason scored on a 66-yard touchdown run. Outside of Mason's touchdown, the Jacks struggled to produce explosive plays on the ground, averaging only 4.3 yards per carry. North Dakota State's longest run was only 17 yards, as the Bison averaged 3.5 yards per carry.

The difference in this game was Cam Miller and North Dakota State's passing attack. Miller only passed for 163 yards but completed 74% of his passes and was efficient throughout the game. He conducted a magnificent game-winning touchdown drive, going 7-for-7 for 74 passing yards and one touchdown.

On the other side, Mark Gronowski struggled once again. He only completed 59% of his passes and the Jacks averaged less than 4.0 yards per attempt. That ranks among the worst yards per attempt in the nation. In the second half, Gronowski only completed 6-of-15 passes for 55 yards and a costly interception.

Another interesting note is that the defenses appeared to utilize similar strategies on Saturday night. Both teams were going to limit explosive plays and keep everything in front of them without being too aggressive. Neither team generated more than two tackles for loss, while linebacker Adam Bock recorded the game's only sack.

The Bison generated more pressure, finishing with a 42% pressure rate, contributing to Gronowski's poor performance. The Jacks failed to replicate the same success, posting a 23% pressure rate and allowing Miller to stand comfortably in the pocket. North Dakota State linebacker Logan Kopp had an outstanding game, finishing as the Bison's highest-graded defensive player. He also recorded the game-winning interception late in the fourth quarter.

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