Behind The Numbers: North Dakota State vs Colorado Review

Timothy Rosario | Sep 2, 2024

Colorado running back Dallan Hayden is stopped on fourth down by North Dakota State defensive end Loshiaka Roques and linebacker Logan Kopp in the second quarter at Folsom Field / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We will also give you some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

Below is a special edition of Behind The Numbers for the electric Week 1 matchup between Colorado and North Dakota State.

Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26

Success Rate: Colorado (54%), North Dakota State (46%)

The Success Rate shows a fairly even game, with Colorado able to find answers more consistently than North Dakota State. Both teams' success rates being near or over 50% shows that the advantage was mostly slanted toward both teams' offenses.

The most significant difference was North Dakota State's inability to stop Colorado's dynamic passing attack, led by Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. The Buffaloes averaged 13.1 yards per pass attempt, the sixth-most allowed by an FCS program this weekend. Travis Hunter made some extraordinary plays, but the bigger concern was Colorado's slot receivers finding space in the middle of the defense. The absence of All-American defensive back Cole Wisniewski was evident throughout Thursday's game.

North Dakota State stayed in the game due to its run defense. The Bison held Colorado to 2.5 yards per carry and made some pivotal plays in short-yardage situations. One pivotal moment was North Dakota State's stop on fourth and one early in the second quarter, which led to a field goal that extended the lead to 20-14.

While Colorado had a future NFL draft pick leading its offense, quarterback Cam Miller played one of the best games of his career. Miller was outstanding in every aspect of the game, leading the Bison in rushing. He consistently made good decisions, extended plays with his legs, and was accurate with his ball placement. Miller ranked No. 4 among all FCS quarterbacks in passer efficiency and completion percentage.

One question mark for the Bison entering the season was the interior offensive line. Despite some rushing success from Miller, the North Dakota State rushing attack only averaged 3.33 yards per carry.

The Bison's failure to succeed in the power run game and score touchdowns in the red zone were key reasons for the upset. North Dakota State had five red zone opportunities but only scored a touchdown on three attempts. If the Bison scored a touchdown on only one of those two attempts, this game could have shifted in momentum.

The final noteworthy statistic in this game was Colorado’s performance on third down. The Buffaloes went an impressive 7-of-11 on third down, and three of those conversions were passes completed to Travis Hunter.

More FCS Football News

FCS Football Recap: Week 1 Takeaways
Week 1 FCS Football Top 25 Scoreboard
Preseason Top 10 FCS Prospects For 2025 NFL Draft
Behind The Numbers: Week 0 FCS Football Review
2024 FCS Football Central Preseason All-American Team

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