Behind The Numbers: South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State Preview

Timothy Rosario | Oct 17, 2024

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

The biggest matchup of the 2024 FCS football season will take place in the Fargodome this weekend. No. 1 South Dakota State will look to extend its winning streak over No. 2 North Dakota State to six games. We take a look behind the numbers of these two programs ahead of this massive matchup.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We have added some content ahead of the biggest FCS game of the season. No. 1 South Dakota State travels to the Fargodome to face No. 2 North Dakota State. Let's take a look at some of the more important numbers behind the matchup.

	South Dakota State	North Dakota State
Success Rate	50.62%	53.86%
Defensive Success Rate	38.18%	39.64%
Redzone TD%	55.6%	72.9%
Defensive Redzone TD%	64.7%	35.7%
Yards Per Rush (YPR)	7.32	4.71
YPR Allowed	2.99	3.87
Yards Per Pass Attempt	7.35	9.26
YPA Allowed	6.30	7.75
TFL%	11.1%	8.9%
TFL% Allowed	3.3%	7.1%
Pressure%	43.7%	52.9%
Pressure% Allowed	22.4%	19.1%
TO%	1.7%	0.4%
TO% Forced	2.5%	2.7%

Before we jump into the preview, I want to briefly explain why these particular stats were chosen. These stats all represent per-play stats instead of per-game stats. Per-game stats, such as total offense or points per game, can be very misleading. Those stats don't account for the fact that some teams could run 80 plays while others could only average 50, which will significantly alter the per-game statistics. Looking at more in-depth stats tells a deeper story of the team's down-to-down performance.

The statistical breakdown for this game is interesting. Both teams are obviously very good and have performed similarly based on the success rates, but there are a few key areas that stand out. The first is Red Zone Touchdown Percentage, which could be a deciding factor in this game. North Dakota State has been a machine offensively, scoring a touchdown on nearly 73% of red zone trips. On the other hand, South Dakota State has been incredible at forcing field goals in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on only 36% of red zone trips.

Another thing that stands out is the rushing game of both teams. North Dakota State has been solid on the ground but has failed to generate the same amount of explosive plays as they did in the past. However, South Dakota State has the most explosive rushing attack in the nation, averaging over 7.0 yards per carry. The Jackrabbits have also done an excellent job creating negative plays, forcing a negative play on 11% of defensive snaps. This could lead to North Dakota State having issues establishing the run this weekend.

The Bison have been more effective through the air as quarterback Cam Miller and wide receiver Bryce Lance have formed a dangerous connection. Miller has completed over 76% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions. On the other side, South Dakota State will have to try and slow down the Bison pass rush, which leads the nation with a 52.9% pressure rate. Unfortunately, the Bison will be without their best pass rusher as Dylan Hendricks is sidelined with an injury.

South Dakota State has won the past five meetings against the Bison, the Jacks' longest winning streak since 1910-17. It should be a great game between two of the best teams in the subdivision. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday at 7 p.m. CT on ESPN2.

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