Behind The Numbers: Week 9 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Oct 29, 2024

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 9 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 9?

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

South Dakota State 20, South Dakota 17

Success Rate: SDSU (44%), USD (41%)

Many people left this game discussing the mistakes that the offenses made, which left points on the board. Penalties, dropped passes, and missed field goals plagued both teams, but none of that should overshadow how well these defenses played on Saturday night.

South Dakota was held to 3.5 yards per carry, while an explosive South Dakota State rushing attack averaged 3.8. South Dakota's passing attack averaged 5.5 yards per attempt, compared to South Dakota State's 5.6. These were some of the lowest outputs of the season for both programs.

The Jackrabbits excelled on third down, holding the Coyotes to 3-of-12 on third down attempts. The Coyotes dominated differently, creating negative plays. South Dakota's defense posted a tackle-for-loss rate of 10%, generating seven tackles for loss. Mark Gronowski's ability to extend drives with his legs was the most significant difference in this game. Gronowski had 54 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown while making key throws in crucial moments.

Youngstown State 41, North Dakota 40

Success Rate: YSU (56%), UND (51%)

Youngstown State has struggled this season, losing five of its past six games, but the Penguins rebounded strongly this weekend. The Penguins were the better team this weekend, but two turnovers led to 14 points for North Dakota. Youngstown State averaged 6.5 yards per play, while North Dakota was held to 5.3 yards per play. Entering this game, Youngstown State was allowing over 8.0 yards per play. The Penguins dominated on the ground, racking up over 330 rushing yards and 6.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Beau Brungard showed his potential in this game, leading the Penguins with 176 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Following this game, North Dakota has fallen to No. 7 in the MVFC in yards per play.

Mercer 44, Western Carolina 34

Success Rate: Mercer (41%), WCU (40%)

Mercer's offense got off to a slow start this weekend, but the Bears turned things around with explosive plays late in the second quarter. Despite a success rate of only 41%, Mercer generated 12 explosive plays, which is one explosive play for every five plays Mercer's offense ran. Dwayne McGee finished the game with 223 rushing yards on 18 carries, posting explosive touchdown runs of 64 and 59 yards. Quarterback Cole Gonzales and running back Branson Adams played well for the Catamounts, but the offense settled for field goals too often this weekend. Mercer's defense generated plenty of pressure, posting four sacks and seven tackles for loss.

Incarnate Word 34, Southeastern Louisiana 31

Success Rate: UIW (46%), SLU (43%)

Incarnate Word defeated Southeastern Louisiana in a game that may have determined the Southland champion this season. Incarnate Word's defense dominated this game, holding Southeastern Louisiana to 4.3 yards per play and forcing three turnovers. The Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns on those turnovers, which became the difference in this game. Penalties were an issue for Incarnate Word, which finished the game with 11 penalties for over 100 yards, seven of which led to first downs for the Lions. The Cardinals posted a 12% tackle-for-loss rate, ending the game with nine tackles for loss.

Rhode Island 24, Maine 14

Success Rate: Rhode Island (36%), Maine (33%)

It was another defensive slugfest for Rhode Island, in which the Rams made just enough plays to win the game. The defensive line was outstanding, generating seven tackles for loss and six sacks. The Rams held Maine to 1.9 yards per carry on 30 rushing attempts, while Malik Grant posted 97 rushing yards for the Rhode Island offense. The Rhode Island defense will have another test next weekend as the Rams host Monmouth.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Central Arkansas wide receivers Malachi Henry and Trejan Bridges / UCA Athletics

Idaho 38, Eastern Washington 28

Success Rate: Idaho (47%), EWU (56%)

Eastern Washington lost another game despite winning the success rate battle due to the defense's inability to limit explosive plays. Idaho generated ten explosive plays, which helped the Vandals average nearly 7.0 yards per play. The Vandals converted on 11-of-15 attempts on third and fourth downs, which led to Idaho's best offensive outputs of the season. The Eagles may have found plenty of success down-to-down but could not generate points in the red zone as Idaho's defense made some key stops. Safety Tommy McCormick recorded 18 total tackles, while defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby posted two tackles for loss.

Central Arkansas 24, North Alabama 19

Success Rate: UCA (27%), UNA (40%)

It was another terrible offensive performance for Central Arkansas, but the Bears continue to find ways to win. North Alabama slowed down running back ShunDerrick Powell, forcing Central Arkansas to rely on explosive plays through the air. The Bears had four scoring drives, but on the other nine drives, Central Arkansas' offense generated 48 yards on 39 plays for an average of 1.2 yards per play.

Central Arkansas' defense saved the day, holding North Alabama to less than 5.0 yards per play and forcing four turnovers. The Bears had three players who recorded 3.0 or more tackles for loss, while David Walker posted three forced fumbles.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 9?

Stony Brook Athletics

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

Stony Brook 35, William & Mary 13

Success Rate: Stony Brook (46%), W&M (37%)

Stony Brook earned a huge ranked victory over William & Mary, moving to 6-1 against the FCS this season. It was a sloppy game as these teams combined for eight turnovers, but Stony Brook's ability to stop the run was the difference. The Tribe averaged 4.3 yards per carry, their lowest output of the season. Offensively, the Seawolves were led by Roland Dempster, who rushed for 144 yards on 27 carries. Quarterback Tyler Knoop created explosive plays downfield, averaging 16.0 yards per completion.

Montana 24, Northern Colorado 0

Success Rate: Montana (54%), UNC (30%)

Montana looked fresh off a bye week with a 24-0 win over Northern Colorado. The question mark for this team has been the defense, but the Grizzlies looked dominant this weekend against an overmatched opponent. Northern Colorado posted a success rate of only 30%, averaging 4.0 yards per play. Montana's defense was less aggressive in this matchup, posting four tackles for loss, which is a change of pace for a unit known for being aggressive and generating negative plays. Running back Nick Ostmo was effective, averaging over 8.0 yards per carry and ending the game with 107 rushing yards.

More FCS Football News

FCS Football Recap: Week 9 Takeaways
Week 9 FCS Football Top 25 Scoreboard
FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 23 (Week 9)
FCS Football Recap: Week 8 Takeaways

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