FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 8 (Week 11)

Timothy Rosario | Nov 8, 2024

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After each week, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2024 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 11.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State, UC Davis

Montana State improved to 9-0 with a win over Eastern Washington. The Bobcats were ranked second in the committee's midseason Top 10 ranking but could make a move for the No. 1 spot with two ranked games to end the season. UC Davis moves into the "Lock" tier after a dominant win over Northern Colorado. The Aggies are 8-1, with their only loss coming against California in the season opener. The offense is playing at an elite level, averaging over 54 points per game over their past three games. The Aggies will have a chance to add another ranked win as they travel to Montana this weekend.

Should Be In: Montana

After dominant wins over Northern Colorado and Cal Poly, Montana has improved to 7-2 and moved into the "Should Be In" tier. A win over UC Davis would secure their spot in the "Lock" tier. The Grizzlies must have one of their best offensive performances of the season and find a way to stop an efficient UC Davis offense this weekend.

Work To Do: Idaho, Northern Arizona

Idaho had a much-needed bye week last Saturday as the Vandals gear up for the final push to the postseason. The Vandals remain in this category because they only have six wins, but a win this weekend will move them into the "Should Be In" tier. Despite having three losses, the Vandals have an FBS win and one of the nation's most difficult strength of schedules. Idaho should be the favorite in its final three games, which have the Vandals positioned for a Top 8 seed.

Northern Arizona remains in the picture after a 27-6 win over Weber State. They have winnable games against Northern Colorado and Cal Poly before a tricky matchup against Eastern Washington to end the season. The Lumberjacks are ranked No. 20 in the Massey Ratings and have a Top 20 strength of schedule.

Big South-OVC

Locks: SEMO

Southeast Missouri State had a bye week in Week 10 but remains positioned to earn a Top 8 seed. The Redhawks are 8-1 overall and 8-0 against the FCS, with games against Lindenwood and Western Illinois in the next two weeks. A season-ending matchup against Tennessee State will be the toughest remaining test for the Redhawks.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: UT Martin, Tennessee State

In one of last weekend's biggest games, UT Martin defeated Tennessee State 28-21. The Skyhawks have put themselves in a great position to secure an at-large bid but must win their remaining games to feel safe on the bubble. UT Martin's only FCS losses were an overtime loss to SEMO and a one-score loss to Missouri State. Tennessee State was competitive in losing to UT Martin, which kept the Tigers in the playoff picture. The Tigers must win their final three games, including a huge matchup with SEMO, to remain on the bubble for the playoffs.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: Rhode Island

Rhode Island becomes the first CAA team to move into the "Should Be In" tier. The Rams added a solid win over Monmouth to their resume and moved to 8-0 against the FCS. Rhode Island will be a lock with a win over Delaware this weekend. Despite some media criticism, the Rams are ranked No. 13 in the Massey Ratings and have a Top 50 strength of schedule.

Work To Do: Villanova, Richmond, Stony Brook, William & Mary

We finally received some clarity in the CAA race this past weekend. With Week 10 victories, Stony Brook, Richmond, and Villanova have started to separate from the rest of the field. If any of these teams reach nine wins, they would likely move into the "Lock" tier. Richmond appears to be the strongest candidate after a quality win over Delaware. Villanova has the head-to-head win over Stony Brook and is ranked No. 11 in the Massey Ratings. Stony Brook may have the weakest resume, but it holds a quality win over William & Mary and is 7-1 against the FCS.

William & Mary remains on the bubble with a 6-3 overall record but lacks a quality win. The Tribe only has one win over a team with a .500 record or better this season. They will likely need to win out, including a statement win over Richmond to secure an at-large bid.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State, South Dakota State

South Dakota State moves into the "Lock" tier after a dominant win over Murray State, giving the Jacks their seventh win of the season. North Dakota State remains the favorite for the No. 1 overall seed following a victory over Northern Iowa in Week 10. If the Jackrabbits want to make a run at the No. 1 overall seed, they would need NDSU or Montana State to suffer a loss in the season's final three weeks.

Should Be In: South Dakota

South Dakota enjoyed a bye week in Week 10 but has an interesting game against Indiana State this weekend. An intriguing aspect of South Dakota's resume is that its game against Portland State was canceled this season, which limited the Coyotes to only 10 Division I games. It will be interesting to see if that hurts the Coyotes in seeding discussions.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Illinois State

North Dakota damaged its playoff chances with a loss to Indiana State. The Hawks dropped to 5-4 and have lost three of their past four games. They also have matchups against South Dakota, SDSU, and Illinois State to end the season. The only reason the Hawks remain in the picture is their win over Montana and a potential upset in one of their final three games. North Dakota will likely need to win two of their final three games to secure a spot in the postseason.

Illinois State has the best chance to earn an at-large bid with winnable games against UNI and Indiana State. The Redbirds also have a season-ending matchup against North Dakota, which could serve as a playoff elimination game. If Illinois State can secure two wins in their last three games, the Redbirds will feel safe on the bubble.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Robert Morris

The NEC race may be decided this weekend with a massive matchup between Duquesne and Robert Morris. Both teams are undefeated in conference play entering Week 11. The Dukes have won six consecutive games, including an out-of-conference victory over Youngstown State. The Colonials have won four consecutive games, including back-to-back shutouts against conference opponents.

Patriot

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Holy Cross, Bucknell, Lehigh

After some disappointing out-of-conference performances, the Patriot League will be a one-bid league this season. Holy Cross remains the only undefeated team in conference play after defeating Lafayette in Week 10. The Crusaders will face Bucknell and Lehigh in the next two weeks; both sit at 2-1 in conference play. Wins over the next two weeks will lock Holy Cross into the postseason as the Patriot League representative.

Pioneer

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake, Morehead State

Despite being another one-bid league, the race for the auto bid will be extremely competitive. Drake controls its destiny for the auto-bid after improving to 5-0 in conference play with a win over Marist in Week 10. Morehead State improved to 6-3 overall and 4-1 in conference play after a massive win over St. Thomas. The Bulldogs host the Eagles on Nov. 16 in a game that could determine the conference championship.

SoCon

Locks: Mercer

Mercer had another massive comeback victory over ETSU in Week 10. The Bears have secured wins over the other top teams in the SoCon and could clinch the conference's auto-bid this weekend. If the Bears defeat VMI and Western Carolina loses to ETSU, Mercer will win the SoCon and receive the auto-bid. Even if chaos ensues with a Mercer loss, the Bears will receive an at-large bid.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina

These three teams find themselves on the edge of the bubble and will likely be fighting for only spots in the postseason. Western Carolina and ETSU will meet in Week 11 in a potential playoff elimination game. The loser will have five losses and will likely be on the outside looking in this season. If Western Carolina defeats ETSU and Mercer loses a conference game, the Catamounts could potentially secure the SoCon auto-bid.

Chattanooga may have the best chance at an at-large bid despite losing to the Catamounts in Week 10. The Mocs will be favorites in their final three games, and two of their losses have come from FBS opponents. They also hold the head-to-head win over ETSU. They will have an intriguing matchup against Austin Peay to end the season. The Governors have struggled at times this season but have given many UAC teams a tougher test than expected.

Below are the Massey Rating and strength of schedule for each of these teams entering Week 11.

Chattanooga: No. 11 overall, No. 18 strength of schedule
Western Carolina: No. 26 overall, No. 22 strength of schedule
ETSU: No. 28 overall, No. 27 strength of schedule

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: Incarnate Word

Incarnate Word will move into the "Lock" category with a win over Lamar this weekend. The Cardinals are in a great position after being ranked No. 9 in the committee's midseason rankings last week. Incarnate Word is 7-2 and 4-0 in conference play with most of their difficult games already being played. If the Cardinals win the next two games, Incarnate Word can secure the auto-bid for the Southland.

Work To Do: Stephen F. Austin, Southeastern Louisiana

Stephen F. Austin still has the conference's best chance to earn an at-large bid. The Lumberjacks can add ranked wins over Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian to their resume over the next three weeks. Southeastern Louisiana is one of the most intriguing teams on the bubble this season. The Lions defeated Lamar in Week 10, moving to 5-5 overall and 5-3 against the FCS. If they can win out, the Lions would be 7-5 with two FBS losses and three FCS losses to teams ranked inside the Top 15. Southeastern Louisiana still needs to win their remaining games and may need some help from other teams to feel safe on the bubble.

UAC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, Southern Utah, Eastern Kentucky

After last weekend's results, the UAC has stolen the title of "Conference of Chaos" from the CAA. Central Arkansas suffered a stunning upset against winless Utah Tech, while Tarleton State lost its first FCS game of the season against Eastern Kentucky.

There is a scenario where the UAC could have a four-way tie at the top of the conference. If Tarleton State defeats Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas defeats Tarleton State, and both Southern Utah and Eastern Kentucky win out, we would be looking at that exact scenario. This may be unlikely, but who would have the advantage in this scenario is unclear.

The winner of the Tarleton State-Abilene Christian game will have the best shot to secure the auto-bid, while the loser will have an excellent shot at an at-large bid if they win their remaining games. Central Arkansas must win its remaining games to secure an at-large bid, including a playoff elimination game against Eastern Kentucky this weekend.

Note: North Carolina Central is the strongest playoff contender from the HBCU conferences. After losing to South Carolina State, the Eagles could win out and finish 9-3 but would not receive the bid to the Celebration Bowl. North Carolina Central would have a quality win over Alabama State but a strength of schedule outside the Top 80. The Eagles would not have a strong resume as last season, but they will be considered for one of the at-large bids.