FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 8 (Week 7)

Timothy Rosario | 2 Hours Ago

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

As conference play begins across the FCS, it is time to look closer at the FCS Playoff picture ahead of Week 7. After each week, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2024 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 7. 

Big Sky

Locks: None
Should Be In: Montana State

Montana State is about as close to "Lock" status as a team will be this early in the season. The Bobcats are 6-0 and have an FBS win over New Mexico on their resume. The only reason the Bobcats are not officially a "lock" is because they have not recorded a ranked win yet. That all changes in Week 7 as Montana State hosts Idaho in one of the weekend's biggest games.

Work To Do: Idaho, Montana, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, Weber State, UC Davis

For now, we have excluded teams that must win every game on their schedule to make the postseason. UC Davis has the strongest resume of this group, with an undefeated (5-0) record against FCS opponents and one of the best wins in the nation over Idaho. The Aggies must avoid a trap game against Portland State but will have a chance to add multiple wins over the next few weeks. Idaho is another team close to moving up to the "Should Be In" level. The Vandals have an FBS win over Wyoming and three ranked wins over UAlbany, Abilene Christian, and Northern Arizona.

Montana, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Weber State still need to do significant work to clinch their spots. The Grizzlies and Hornets are searching for marquee wins, while Northern Arizona and Weber State already have three losses this season. In Week 7, Northern Arizona travels to Montana in a massive Big Sky matchup, while Sacramento State must avoid a letdown against Eastern Washington.

Big South-OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: SEMO

SEMO has one of the best resumes in the nation. The Redhawks are 5-0 against FCS competition and have a ranked win over Southern Illinois. SEMO also holds a key tiebreaker over UT Martin, who the Redhawks defeated earlier this season, which puts them in the perfect position to secure the auto-bid. The Redhawks have their sights set on a potential Top 8 seed.

Work To Do: UT Martin, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State

UT Martin already lost to SEMO, which means the Skyhawks will most likely have to receive an at-large bid to the postseason. The Skyhawks should be favorites in all their remaining games and have a real chance to finish this season 9-3, which may be the only way to secure their spot in the playoffs.

Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State have a chance to shake up the Big South-OVC but will need to pull off the upset over SEMO. Tennessee Tech is in the best spot with a 2-0 conference record and a head-to-head win over Tennessee State. Neither team has the resume to earn an at-large bid.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Villanova, Rhode Island, Richmond, New Hampshire, William & Mary, Stony Brook, Maine, Monmouth, Towson

Due to the size of the conference, many teams in the CAA will not have a chance to play each other, creating a chaotic race for the postseason. There is an intriguing question about how many bids this conference deserves to the FCS Playoffs, but it seems safe to assume that at least three teams will find their way into the bracket.

Villanova and Rhode Island are best positioned to secure the auto-bid with undefeated records against FCS competition. William & Mary remains one of the favorites to win a share of the conference despite a Week 6 loss to Towson due to a questionable strength of schedule. Towson is one of the most intriguing teams in this race after the Tigers' upset win over the Tribe. The Tigers have an opportunity to add some key wins over the next four weeks but have looked competitive in losses against Villanova and North Dakota State. There are still too many questions surrounding this conference race, which will come down to the final weekend of the season.

MVFC

Locks: None
Should Be In: South Dakota State, North Dakota State, South Dakota

All three programs are close to being locks for the postseason but need one or two more wins on their resume. Each program is undefeated against FCS competition and has recently dominated ranked opponents. Unless things change drastically, expect North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and South Dakota to all earn Top 8 seeds. In five combined conference games, these three teams have won by a combined score of 225-43.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Youngstown State

Unlike last season, the playoff picture for the Missouri Valley seems clear right now. North Dakota and Illinois State should secure at-large bids, while UNI, Southern Illinois, and Youngstown State will be on the outside looking in. North Dakota and Illinois State have the most straightforward paths for these teams, both sitting at 4-2 (1-1 MVFC). The Redbirds also avoid a tough matchup against South Dakota State. Youngstown State and Southern Illinois would need a miracle to make the field; both will be eliminated with losses next weekend. Northern Iowa is mathematically still alive for the playoffs but has not shown the ability to win key games. The Panthers will need to pull off an upset over South Dakota or North Dakota to give themselves a chance, but two losses will eliminate them from consideration.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Wagner

The NEC will be a one-bid league this season with the conference champion receiving an auto-bid to the postseason. Over the first six weeks, Duquesne looks like the best team in the conference. The Dukes are undefeated against FCS competition and have a win over Youngstown State. Central Connecticut State and Robert Morris are also undefeated in conference play but have not shown the same potential as Duquesne in out-of-conference play.

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Holy Cross, Lafayette

The Patriot League is another one-bid league after a disappointing performance in out-of-conference play. Lafayette won the conference last season and has a win over Monmouth, but a loss to Columbia most likely eliminated the Leopards from receiving an at-large bid. Holy Cross suffered three one-score losses in non-conference matchups but had a huge victory over Colgate last weekend. The Crusaders travel to Lafayette on Oct. 26, which could decide the auto-bid for the conference.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Butler, Drake, Dayton, Davidson

Another one-bid league, but the race for the auto-bid will be an interesting one. The top of the conference made their impact in out-of-conference play. Butler is 5-0 and has a win over Murray State, while Drake stunned Eastern Washington earlier this season. Dayton and Davidson are also unbeaten in conference play, with the Flyers having an out-of-conference win over Saint Francis.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: Mercer

Mercer already has ranked conference wins over Wofford and Chattanooga, taking an early lead for the SoCon's auto-bid. The Bears are 5-0 and only need a few more wins to secure their spot in the playoffs for the second consecutive season. One question mark is the health of DJ Smith, who left with a leg injury in the second half against the Terriers. After a much-needed bye week, Mercer will host Princeton in an intriguing out-of-conference matchup.

Work To Do: ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina, Samford, Furman

Behind Mercer, the next tier of this conference is chaotic. Samford and Furman are fighting to stay in contention for the postseason. Neither team has looked good enough to make a run, but their records are good enough to keep them in this group for now.

The conversation surrounding ETSU, Chattanooga, and Western Carolina is intriguing due to strength of schedule. The Mocs saved their season with a win over ETSU last weekend and have a chance to make a strong run for a potential at-large bid. A win over the Paladins will build much-needed momentum after Chattanooga navigated a brutal three-game stretch to open the season. ETSU was just a few plays away from beating North Dakota State, while Western Carolina lost a competitive road matchup against Montana. The Bucs need a win to secure their spot in this race against Samford in Week 7, while Western Carolina hosts The Citadel.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Incarnate Word, Lamar, Nicholls

None of these have played a conference game, however, these are the teams who are expected to compete for the auto-bid. Incarnate Word has a notable win over Northern Arizona, while Lamar earned a ranked win over Weber State. Nicholls sits at 2-3 but has looked dominant in their past two games after winning the conference last season. Week 7 will be a massive weekend for the Southland, headlined by Incarnate Word hosting Nicholls in a game that could decide the conference. Another team that could emerge is Stephen F. Austin, which has a chance to make a statement against Lamar this weekend.

UAC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Works To Do: Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian, Eastern Kentucky, Southern Utah

Abilene Christian picked up one of the biggest wins of the season, upsetting Central Arkansas in Week 6. The Wildcats have a chance to compete for a Top 8 seed as their only loss is a one-score loss to Idaho. Central Arkansas will need to rebound from this weekend's loss, but have a manageable schedule until games against Southern Utah and Tarleton State to end the season. The Bears may need to win out to secure the auto-bid but will still have a solid resume for an at-large bid.

Entering Week 7, Tarleton State may have the second-best resume in the conference. The Texans are undefeated against the FCS with have solid wins over McNeese and Southern Utah. Tarleton State just needs to keep winning to secure the first-ever appearance in the FCS playoffs. Eastern Kentucky is undefeated against FCS competition, but the strength of schedule has been questionable. If the Colonels can win a key road game against Southern Utah, this team could be in position to make another postseason run. After a heartbreaking loss, Southern Utah is on the bubble of being a playoff contender. The Thunderbirds will most likely need to run the table to stay in contention due to their out-of-conference loss to Idaho State.

Note: North Carolina Central and Jackson State have the potential to build solid resumes for an at-large bid. If these teams win their conferences, they will meet in the Celebration Bowl and will not be eligible for the FCS Playoffs. If either team slips up in conference play, both will most likely be in contention for an at-large bid. The Eagles have three solid out-of-conference wins and made the playoffs last season.

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