How Do Montana State, North Dakota State Compare To Past FCS National Championship Contenders?

Timothy Rosario | Jan 3, 2025

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As we prepare for the 2025 FCS National Championship game, we wanted to take a look at how Montana State and North Dakota State compare to previous teams who have made appearances in the FCS national title game over the past five seasons.

Do these teams belong in the same conversation as last season's South Dakota State team or the 16-0 North Dakota State team in 2019? We examine both teams in this season's national title game and compare them to those who have appeared in the national title game in the last five full seasons. Due to the unique format of the season, we excluded the shortened spring 2021 season.

We utilized several advanced metrics, including the Massey Power Rating, Sagarin Power Rating, and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS). The SRS is not logged for FCS teams, but we have utilized their formula to make our own SRS for teams at the FCS level. The calculation is straightforward, using the average margin of victory and strength of schedule.

	Massey Power Rating	Sagarin Rating	SRS
2024 Montana State	53.5	76.6	26.2
2024 North Dakota State	55.8	76.3	25.7
2023 South Dakota State	62.8	83.3	24.3
2023 Montana	49.9	69.1	15.9
2022 South Dakota State	58.8	76.0	25.9
2022 North Dakota State	55.3	69.7	18.9
2021 North Dakota State	63.3	76.3	23.3
2021 Montana State	52.3	65.1	18.4
2019 North Dakota State	61.4	78.6	24.4
2019 James Madison	57.2	72.8	22.3

Both teams this season compare favorably with the past four FCS national champions. Montana State has the second-highest adjusted margin of victory, winning by an average of 19.1 points per game. It only trails the 2019 North Dakota State team, which defeated opponents by an average of 19.3 points per game.

The most interesting takeaway is that this is the first matchup in the FCS National Championship in the past five full seasons in which both teams appear to be playing at a championship standard. Analytically, this is the closest gap between the teams playing in the national championship in the past five seasons.

This should be no surprise to fans, who have seen dominant performances over the past few seasons in Frisco. The average margin of victory in the past five national championships has been 16.4 points, with the closest game being Sam Houston State's two-point win over South Dakota State in the spring of 2021.

If you were to average these three metrics together, they would rank as follows:

1. 2023 South Dakota State (56.8)
2. 2019 North Dakota State (54.8)
3. 2021 North Dakota State (54.3)
4. 2022 South Dakota State (53.6)
5. 2024 North Dakota State (52.6)
6. 2024 Montana State (52.1)
7. 2019 James Madison (50.8)
8. 2022 North Dakota State (47.9)
9. 2021 Montana State (45.3)
10. 2023 Montana (44.9)

Every metric we analyzed indicates that Monday's game could be an instant classic. Both teams rank much closer to recent FCS national champions, compared to the runner-ups over the past five seasons.

No. 1 Montana State will face No. 2 North Dakota State in the 2025 FCS National Championship game in Frisco, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for Jan. 6 at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN.

More FCS Football News

Behind The Numbers: FCS National Championship Preview
FCS National Championship: Offensive Spotlight
FCS National Championship: Defensive Spotlight
History Of The FCS National Championship Game
2024 FCS Playoffs: Official Bracket, Schedule, Scores

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