Week 13 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | Nov 22, 2024

North Dakota State running back Barika Kpeenu / Zachary Lucy (NDSU Athletics)

We preview and make our official predictions for the top FCS games on the Week 13 slate right here. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 146-38
2022-23 Record: 207-75

No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 4 South Dakota

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

North Dakota State can secure the No. 1 overall seed this weekend. The Bison are 10-0 against the FCS and have multiple ranked wins on their resume. South Dakota could shake up the Top 4 seed conversation with an upset but should remain in the Top 8 with a competitive loss this weekend. The Bison have won seven of the past eight matchups against the Coyotes.

South Dakota's defense is the x-factor in this matchup. The Coyotes rank No. 2 in the MVFC in total and rushing defense and lead the conference in passing defense. Defensive end Mi'Quise Grace is having a breakout season, leading the Coyotes with 14 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. An experienced linebacker core, led by Gary Bryant III and Nate Ewell, will be the key to stopping a dynamic North Dakota State offensive attack.

The Bison lead the MVFC in scoring offense, putting up 39.7 points per game this season. Quarterback Cam Miller is the catalyst with 2,166 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 288 rushing yards, and six rushing touchdowns. Running backs CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu have combined for over 1,500 yards and 18 touchdowns.

After a disappointing start to the season, North Dakota State's rushing defense has emerged as one of the best in the nation. The Bison have held three of their past five opponents under 100 yards rushing, including back-to-back weeks against UNI and Missouri State.

The Bison defense will be tested again as the Coyotes are led by a dangerous 1-2 punch at running back. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have combined for over 1,700 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns, ranking in the No. 1 and 2 in the conference in rushing yards per game.

This is another chance for the Coyotes to prove they are a national title contender. North Dakota State has looked like the best team in the nation, and I expect Miller to be the difference in this game. South Dakota's defense makes enough plays to keep this competitive, but Miller delivers another late-game drive to secure the No. 1 overall seed for the Bison.

Prediction: North Dakota State (27-20)

No. 9 Montana at No. 2 Montana State

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

There may not be a more intense rivalry at the FCS level than the Brawl of the Wild. Montana State enters this year's matchup as a heavy favorite and has a chance to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the FCS Playoffs. Montana could jump into Top 8 seed consideration with an upset, but the Grizzlies have not won in Bozeman since 2015.

Montana's quarterback controversy is the biggest question mark in this game. The Grizzlies have remained committed to a two-quarterback system despite subpar play from Keali'i Ah Yat. If the Grizzlies start Logan Fife, this game becomes much more intriguing. Fife has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,676 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, and two interceptions.

The key to the game will be Montana's ability to limit Montana State's rushing attack. The Bobcats rank No. 2 nationally with 317.2 rushing yards per game, while Montana allowed over 200 yards rushing against Portland State last weekend. Scottre Humphrey leads the Bobcats with 1,221 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellot may be the current favorite for the Walter Payton Award. He is having a career year with 1,862 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 590 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. This will be a massive test for the Montana front seven, led by Riley Wilson and Vai Kaho. The Grizzlies have done an excellent job creating negative plays, recording 63 tackles for loss and 22 sacks this season.

Homefield advantage has been massive in this rivalry over the past four seasons. Montana State looks like the better team at almost every position and will be able to feed off the energy of Bobcat Stadium. Montana's instability at quarterback will be too much to overcome, and Mellot will deliver his Walter Payton moment to complete an undefeated season.

Prediction: Montana State (34-20)

Yale at No. 17 Harvard

Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (ESPNU)

With a win this weekend, Harvard can secure the first outright conference title since 2014. It would be the second consecutive championship for the Crimson. Yale has won five of the past seven matchups against Harvard, including back-to-back wins over the Crimson.

Yale leads the Ivy League in rushing offense but must find success against Harvard's defense, which ranks No. 2 in the conference in rushing defense. Josh Pitsenberger and Tre Peterson have combined for over 1,000 rushing yards and eight touchdowns for the Bulldogs.

This game features two of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. Yale's Grant Jordan is a dynamic weapon with 1,651 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 287 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns. Harvard's Jaden Craig is the favorite for Ivy League Offensive Player of the Year, throwing for 2,138 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only two interceptions.

Despite Yale dominating this series over the past seven seasons, Harvard appears to be the most complete team in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs have enough talent to keep this competitive, but Craig puts the exclamation point on his stellar season with a game-winning touchdown drive.

Prediction: Harvard (24-21)

No. 3 South Dakota State at Missouri State

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

South Dakota State needs a win to remain in the race for the auto-bid and a share of the conference title. Missouri State will be looking to shake up the FCS in its final game at the FCS level before joining the C-USA next season. The Jackrabbits have won eight consecutive games over the Bears, including seven games by 14 points or more.

Missouri State struggled to stop the run last week, allowing over 360 rushing yards to North Dakota State. The Bears have allowed 200 or more rushing yards in three of the past four games, which will be problematic against the No. 1 rushing offense in the MVFC. Amar Johnson leads the Jackrabbits with 852 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Four players, including Angel Johnson and Kirby Vorhees, have surpassed the 400-yard mark this season.

The Bears lead the MVFC in passing offense and will try to find success against South Dakota State's secondary. The Jackrabbits rank No. 2 for passing defense in the MVFC, holding opponents to 182.1 yards per game. Quarterback Jacob Clark has completed 71.8% of his passes for 3,418 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns.

South Dakota State has suffocated opposing offenses, which will create problems for the Bears. I expect a heavy dose of Amar Johnson and the Jackrabbits' rushing attack this weekend. Combine that with Mark Gronowski's playmaking ability, and you have the perfect recipe for another dominant win for South Dakota State.

Prediction: South Dakota State (45-20)

No. 12 SEMO at Tennessee State

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

The Big South-OVC race will be decided this weekend. SEMO will win the outright conference title and clinch the auto-bid with a win, while Tennessee State secures at least a share of the conference title with an upset victory. The Tigers will need UT Martin and Tennessee Tech to lose to secure the auto-bid but will have an excellent shot at earning an at-large bid with a win.

SEMO's offense will hinge on quarterback Paxton DeLaurent, who leads the Big South-OVC with 3,287 passing yards and 27 passing touchdowns. Wide receiver Dorian Anderson is having a breakout season, posting 869 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Tristan Smith and Cam Pedro have also combined for over 1,400 receiving yards, giving the Redhawks a dangerous trio on the outside.

It will be an interesting matchup for the SEMO offense against a Tennessee State defense that leads the conference in passing defense. The Tigers have held opponents to 192.4 passing yards per game, including four games under 100 passing yards. Defensive back Boogie Trotter is a key piece in the secondary, posting 50 total tackles, three interceptions, and seven pass breakups.

Tennessee State quarterback Draylen Ellis is the x-factor in this matchup. Ellis is having his best season with the Tigers, passing for 2,501 yards and 20 touchdowns. The offense reaches a different level when Ellis is at his best, and he faces a massive challenge against SEMO's defense, which leads the conference in scoring defense.

Tennessee State's defense is good enough to make SEMO's offense one-dimensional, which has struggled to run the ball consistently. This feels like now or never for head coach Eddie George, who should have the Tigers locked in on Saturday afternoon. Give me Tennessee State with the upset, keeping the Tigers in position for their first postseason appearance since 2013.

Prediction: Tennessee State (24-20)

Other Week 13 FCS Predictions:

No. 6 Incarnate Word 45, East Texas A&M 14
No. 7 Idaho 28, Idaho State 17
No. 8 Mercer 38, Furman 10
No. 11 Abilene Christian 35, Stephen F. Austin 21
No. 14 Illinois State 34, North Dakota 17
Delaware 38, No. 15 Villanova 35
No. 16 Tarleton State 34, Central Arkansas 23
Monmouth 35, No. 18 Stony Brook 31
No. 19 Duquesne 28, Central Connecticut State 20
No. 24 New Hampshire 23, Maine 17

More FCS Football News

Week 13 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
Behind The Numbers: Analyzing FCS Playoff Bubble Resumes
FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 19 (Week 13)
FCS Football Recap: Week 12 Takeaways