Week 3 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

As I've done over the past few years, I'll preview the biggest games of the weekend and give my official predictions. Let's keep this season going and preview the biggest Week 3 games from across the FCS landscape.

2026 Prediction Record: 40-10
2022-25 Prediction Record: 540-175 (75.5%)

No. 18 South Carolina State at Furman

Kickoff: 7 pm ET (ESPN+)

Storylines To Watch: I still don't think we completely know what either of these teams are after three games. The Bulldogs have played two non-Division I opponents, while the Paladins have played one non-Division I team and then an FBS game against Tennessee. This means we really only have one true data point for either team, making this a very tricky game to analyze.

The biggest difference was how dominant South Carolina State has looked in its three games, compared to Furman. The Bulldogs are currently outscoring their opponents 184-13, while Furman struggled a bit against Anderson in Week 0 with a 20-3 win. The Paladins do have the most impressive win this year between these two teams, defeating Mercer in a defensive slugfest in Week 2. This weekend's game is going to be extremely important in determining where these teams really rank among other FCS contenders.

Lastly, Chennis Berry is already widely considered one of the best head coaches in HBCU football, but a win this weekend could begin to earn him the national recognition he truly deserves. He's 22-6 overall and 10-0 in conference play over his career at South Carolina State, which includes an HBCU national championship last season. If Berry can start to pick up key non-conference wins, I think he's going to have a real shot at being a Top 3 head coach in FCS football.

Matchup To Watch: South Carolina State's Defensive Line vs. Furman's Offensive Line

South Carolina State's defensive line has been an absolute problem for opponents this year. The Bulldogs have recorded 28 TFLs, 10 sacks, and are holding opponents to 1.4 yards per carry. The trio of Jordan Dollard, Joshua Barker, and Ka'von Chisolm have combined for 13 TFLs and 7.5 sacks. It was one of the keys to SCSU's run to Atlanta last season, and I think this unit has an even higher ceiling than what we saw last year.

Furman's offensive line has struggled at times with allowing negative plays and pressure. The Paladins allowed 6 TFLs and 4 sacks against Mercer, which can't happen against this SCSU defensive line. The negative plays impact the rushing attack, but more importantly, they put quarterback Jake Garcia in an uncomfortable spot. He hasn't played well under pressure, which is why this is a huge key to the game for the Paladins.

X-Factor: Mason Pickett-Hicks (South Carolina State, RB)

The star of the South Carolina State offense has been running back Mason Pickett-Hicks. Both of these teams are going to want to establish the run, which is why all eyes will be on Pickett-Hicks. In SCSU's lone FCS game, he exploded for a season-high 210 yards and 2 rushing TDs. His 11.5 yards per carry leads the entire FCS and is over 3 yards per carry more than Tylan Hines at No. 2.

I talked about SCSU's defensive line earlier, but Pickett-Hicks will face his toughest test this weekend. The Paladins have also been very good up front, including Buck Buchanan Award runner-up Joshua Stoneking, who led the team in tackles against Mercer. There's also Eli Lipscomb, who leads the team with 5 TFLs and 2 sacks. This is going to be a defensive slugfest in Greenville. I just trust the South Carolina State offense a little more, giving them the advantage on the road.

Prediction: South Carolina State (23-20)

No. 14 Austin Peay at No. 17 West Florida

Kickoff: 7 pm ET (ESPN+)

Storylines To Watch: The Argos haven't wasted any time since they made the jump to the Division I level. They opened the season with a Top 25 win over Southern Illinois, then followed it up with a 28-point rout of Central Arkansas on the road. If West Florida can find a way to win this game, there's going to be a real argument that this team is a Top 10 team in the country right now.

This will be Austin Peay's biggest test of the season so far, excluding an FBS matchup against Vanderbilt. The Govs handled business against Gardner-Webb in Week 0, but Morehead State was overmatched from the jump last weekend. This is an important step for Jeff Faris and the Govs, because they fell just outside of the playoffs, which could be linked to unexpected losses to Southern Utah and Eastern Kentucky on the road. This is a huge road test for the Govs, and if they are truly ready to emerge as a national contender, it's a game that they have to find a way to win.

Matchup To Watch: West Florida's Rushing Attack vs. Austin Peay's Defense

The rushing stats may not pop off the page, but this West Florida offense is built on the run game. The Argos are averaging just under 200 rushing yards per game, a lot of which has come from the playmaking ability of quarterback Ty'ray Davis.

He leads the team with 163 rushing yards and 2 TDs. TJ Lane and Markel Townsend are the two names to watch at running back, combining for 145 yards and 2 TDs. The Argos are going to need to find some sort of success on the road, control the pace of the game, and keep this explosive Austin Peay defense on the sidelines.

Austin Peay has held opponents to 3.1 yards per carry, including a fairly impressive performance against Vanderbilt in Week 1. They've generated 20 TFLs in three games, but this West Florida offensive line has been excellent at limiting those negative plays, allowing only 7 TFLs and 1 sack in two games. Kelton Crisp and Malik Denkins are two of the biggest playmakers on this defensive line. They need to be disruptive and keep UWF's offense off schedule, which is something that SIU and UCA failed to do against the Argos.

X-Factor: Chris Parson (Austin Peay, QB)

There's no other logical choice here. Parson is the definition of an X-factor, especially after his All-American season in 2025. He's picked up right where he left off, throwing for 684 yards, 5 passing TDs, and 1 INT. He also leads the country in yards per pass attempt (12.0) and ranks 2nd nationally in yards per completion (18.0). We haven't seen him use his legs as much as last season, but if he gets outside the pocket, he can do some special things.

The other reason I picked Parson here is that West Florida has been elite at forcing opposing teams into mistakes. Parson has done an outstanding job at protecting the football, finishing last year with only 5 INTs on over 326 passing attempts. The Argos have forced 4 INTs, which completely changed the momentum in both of their games. It'll be interesting to see if the Argos can create turnovers against an extremely effective, efficient player like Parson.

Prediction: Austin Peay (34-31)

No. 9 Youngstown State at No. 2 South Dakota State

Kickoff: 7 pm ET (ESPN+)

Storylines To Watch: I think one of the most interesting storylines to watch will be the quarterback battle. Beau Brungard is the defending Walter Payton Award winner and has only continued to improve over the first three games this year. He has 765 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, 1 INT, 259 rushing yards, and 4 rushing TDs. This is going to be a massive test for Brungard. If he can lead this team into Brookings and come out with a win, the Penguins may emerge as a real threat to make a run to Nashville with all the talent on this roster.

Chase Mason entered the year with a ton of hype, with some even crowning him as the top FCS prospect in the upcoming NFL Draft. It hasn't seemed to click yet for Mason and this passing attack. A lot of it could be tied to drops, but until last week, Mason really hasn't lived up to the preseason hype. This is the perfect stage for Mason to show what he can really do in this offense. He's completed 53% of his passes for 697 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 1 INT, and 1 rushing TD this season.

We know Brungard is going to lead Youngstown State in carries, but what about Mason's involvement in the plus-one rushing attack? We haven't seen the Jackrabbits really utilize Mason's legs since he took over the starting job last season. I would love to see the Jacks find a way to get Mason more involved in the run game, especially in short-yardage and red zone situations. For those who don't remember, Mason put up over 460 rushing yards and 6 TDs on 10.1 yards per carry in 2024. This is the perfect game to let him open up this offensive attack with his athleticism.

Matchup To Watch: South Dakota State's Rushing Attack vs. Youngstown State's Defense

The Penguins were able to jump on the Jackrabbits early last season, but it was SDSU's downhill rushing attack that changed that game after halftime. That's the key to success in this one. I want to see South Dakota State lean into its run game, giving Josiah Johnson, Corey Blair Jr., and Ramon McKinney Jr. plenty of opportunities to go make plays for this offense.

Youngstown State has some playmakers in the front seven, but can the Penguins hold up for four quarters against this physical rushing attack? It was the biggest difference between these teams last season. If the Penguins are going to win this game, they need Carston Marshall, Graydon Rollins, and Michael Wells to elevate this front seven and find a way to limit SDSU's rushing attack.

X-Factor: Redzone Efficiency & Lynn Wyche-El (Youngstown State, WR)

In games like this, finding ways to turn red zone opportunities into touchdowns becomes extremely important. It's something that's plagued the Jackrabbits all season, with only six TDs on 15 red zone opportunities. On the other side, Youngstown State has scored 13 TDs on 14 red zone trips. The Jacks cannot settle for field goals in this game. If the Penguins are able to finish drives with TDs, and SDSU continues to settle for FGs, this game could flip very quickly in the direction of Youngstown State.

Lynn Wyche-El was one of my favorite offseason additions for the Penguins. He's delivered on that hype, leading the team with 18 receptions for 229 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs. Wyche-El has been a dangerous weapon out of the slot, which could test some of the new secondary pieces for SDSU. He really turned heads against Kentucky, where he had a season-high 7 receptions for 111 yards.

Prediction: South Dakota State (31-23)

Quick-Hit Week 3 Predictions:

No. 7 Lehigh 38, Dartmouth 20

It's finally time for the Ivy League to join the party, but there's no warm-up game for Dartmouth here. The Mountain Hawks are running the ball at an elite level, which starts with Luke Yoder, who leads the team with 419 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs. The Big Green were excellent against the run last season, but will have some new pieces stepping into starting roles in the front seven. I like Lehigh to wear down this Dartmouth defense, pulling away in the second half for a big non-conference win.

No. 8 Rhode Island 38, Stony Brook 31

We still don't expect to see Devin Farrell, but Tyler Budge has played well in his first three starts. This Rhode Island defense has been outstanding, forcing 6 INTs and recording 10 sacks this season. Stony Brook has been a second-half team all year, but the Seawolves can't afford another slow start if they want to pull off the upset. They've run the ball well behind CJ Hester and Jeremiah Coney, but quarterback Quinn Boyd is going to need a big game. I like the Rams to win a high-scoring battle, but this has some upset potential due to Farrell's absence.

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin 31, Prairie View A&M 21

This is a massive in-state battle between two programs that are looking to win back-to-back conference titles. The Lumberjacks are going to lean on their aggressive defensive attack, which has produced 24 TFLs, 11 sacks, and 6 INTs over their first three games. The Panthers have relied on Tevin Carter to be a superstar in their biggest games. He leads the team with 600 passing yards, 156 rushing yards, and 8 total TDs. My concern here is that the Panthers haven't been very effective running the ball downhill, which is a major problem against SFA's front seven. I think this one could be a slugfest early, but SFA's dominance across the line of scrimmage becomes too much in the second-half.

No. 19 Yale 34, Holy Cross 10

It's officially the start of the Kevin Cahill era at Yale, as the Bulldogs look to win back-to-back Ivy League championships. This defense returns 11 significant contributors from last season's unit, including All-American safety Abu Kamara. Holy Cross has been abysmal offensively, making this a real potential mismatch. The Crusaders haven't been able to run the ball, while David Lynch has struggled with turnovers. I expect a massive day for this Yale defense, while Dante Reno and Jaxton Santiago lead the offensive attack for the Bulldogs.

No. 25 Harvard 38, New Hampshire 17

Harvard is looking to win a share of the Ivy League title for the third consecutive season under head coach Andrew Aurich. Even with a new starting quarterback, Harvard returns nearly 20 significant contributors from last season's playoff team. The defense features one of the best CB duos in the entire country with Damien Henderson and Austin Jake-Guillory, plus All-American linebacker Sean Line anchors the front seven. New Hampshire has struggled to start the year, losing to UAlbany in Week 0 and escaping with a 7-point win over Stonehill. I don't trust the Wildcats to find much success offensively, which is going to create opportunities for Harvard to completely control this game on Saturday.

Other Notable Week 3 Predictions:

Abilene Christian 24, Idaho 20

Towson 27, Morgan State 23

Monmouth 31, UAlbany 16

North Alabama 23, Alcorn State 20

Central Arkansas 24, SEMO 17

Incarnate Word 37, Houston Christian 30

Gardner-Webb 28, North Carolina Central 21

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