Week 9 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | 2 Hours Ago

Dave Eggen (SDSU Athletics)

We preview and make our official predictions for the top FCS games on the Week 9 slate right here. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 104-26
2022-23 Record: 207-75

No. 4 South Dakota at No. 3 South Dakota State

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CT (ESPNU)

South Dakota State will have to rebound from a loss to an FCS opponent for the first time under head coach Jimmy Rogers. Conversely, South Dakota has a chance to prove it belongs in the same conversation as NDSU, SDSU, and Montana State with an upset win this weekend.

The biggest matchup in this game will be South Dakota's rushing attack against a stout front seven for South Dakota State. The Coyotes rank No. 7 nationally with 232.6 rushing yards per game, led by Charles Pierre Jr. with 705 yards and 12 touchdowns. Running back Travis Theis has been sidelined with an injury but is reportedly set to return this weekend. The Jackrabbits have limited opponents to 99.4 yards per game on the ground but have allowed over 100 yards in back-to-back games.

South Dakota's offense starts with the rushing attack, which allows quarterback Aidan Bouman to take shots down the field. Bouman has been excellent this season, completing 69.8% of his passes for 1,393 yards and seven touchdowns. The Coyotes lead the MVFC in yards per attempt, while Bouman ranks No. 1 nationally with 10.24 yards per attempt.

South Dakota State has leaned on one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the nation this season. The Jackrabbits are the only team at the FCS level averaging over 7.0 yards per carry. Amar Johnson leads the unit with 521 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while backup quarterback Chase Mason is a dynamic weapon with 336 rushing yards.

The question mark for South Dakota State is the passing attack, which has struggled to find consistency this season. Quarterback Mark Gronowski has completed 61.3% of his passes for 1,221 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Can the Jackrabbits solve their issues against a South Dakota secondary that leads the MVFC in passing defense? Dennis Shorter leads the Coyotes with two interceptions and seven pass breakups.

South Dakota has not scored a touchdown against South Dakota State since 2021, but I expect that streak to end this weekend. The Coyotes have the talent to keep this game much more competitive than the past two matchups. I still lean towards the Jackrabbits this weekend. I expect South Dakota State to win the battle at the line of scrimmage while Gronowski reminds the country why he won the Walter Payton Award last season.

Prediction: South Dakota State (27-20)

No. 24 Western Carolina at No. 14 Mercer

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Mercer's undefeated season ended last week as Samford stunned the Bears in a 55-35 upset. Turnovers and injuries allowed the Bulldogs to build a 42-7 first-half lead, but the Bears still control their destiny in the SoCon race.

The biggest question this weekend is the health of quarterback DJ Smith, who left last week's game with an injury. Freshman Whitt Newbauer is expected to get the start if Smith is not available. He has completed 63.6% of his passes for 214 yards and one touchdown in limited action this season.

The question marks at quarterback put more pressure on Mercer to establish the run against the Catamounts. Dwayne McGee leads the Bears with 519 rushing yards and five touchdowns, but the room lacks depth. No other running back has posted more than 135 rushing yards this season. The Catamounts allow over 185 yards per game on the ground, but they held Furman to a season-low of 55 yards last week.

Western Carolina started the season 1-3 after a brutal out-of-conference schedule but has won three consecutive games to open conference play. The Catamounts are the only remaining undefeated team in the SoCon entering Week 9.

Quarterback Cole Gonzales is playing at an elite level, including last weekend's record-setting performance against Furman. Gonzales has recorded 1,171 passing yards and six touchdowns over the past three weeks. De'Andre Tamarez is having a breakout season, leading the Catamounts with 364 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

As Western Carolina's offense continues to shine, the Catamounts will face their toughest test of the season. Mercer ranks No. 3 nationally in total defense, holding opponents to 251.7 yards per game. The Bears have forced 16 interceptions, led by Myles Redding and TJ Moore, with five each.

This is one of the most challenging games to predict this weekend. Mercer's defense must prevent this game from turning into a shootout, which could be difficult, given the elite play we have seen from Gonzales. There is also the question of Mercer's offense without DJ Smith, who has been an integral part of their success. I am going to trust Mercer's defense to make a play to win the game, but the Bears may be on upset alert against a red-hot Western Carolina team.

Prediction: Mercer (24-21)

No. 10 Incarnate Word at Southeastern Louisiana

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

After a 1-4 start, Southeastern Louisiana has won three consecutive games and sits atop the Southland standings with a 3-0 conference record. The Lions will face their toughest challenge of the conference slate as Incarnate Word has won four consecutive games since back-to-back losses to South Dakota State and Southern Illinois.

Everything starts with quarterback Zach Calzada, who has completed 66.9% of his passes for 1,867 yards and 18 passing touchdowns. The Cardinals have two dynamic weapons in wide receivers, Jalen Walthall and Roy Alexander. The duo has combined for over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns. Southeastern Louisiana ranks No. 2 in the Southland in passing defense, led by Keydrain Calligan and Tylon Cooper.

Incarnate Word's defense struggled against the run early this season but has held its past three opponents under 130 yards on the ground. Limiting the run will be key this weekend as the Lions will lean on running back Antonio Martin Jr., who leads the Lions with 1,088 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

Southeastern Louisiana is one of the hottest teams in the nation, but the Cardinals look like the most complete team in the Southland Conference. Calzada will be able to make enough plays offensively to escape Hammond with a huge conference win.

Prediction: Incarnate Word (35-31)

Morgan State at No. 20 North Carolina Central

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

As conference play finally begins in the MEAC, North Carolina Central is the overwhelming favorite to make the Celebration Bowl. The Eagles have won four consecutive games, winning by an average of 42 points over that stretch.

Quarterback Walker Harris has shined in his first season as the starter, completing 63.5% of his passes for 1,116 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. He will be tested this weekend against a Morgan State secondary that is allowing only 122.9 yards per game, which ranks No. 1 in the MEAC. The Bears have battled injuries but are led by defensive backs Carlvainsky Decius and Ja'son Prevard.

An intriguing matchup will be North Carolina Central's offensive line against Morgan State's front seven. Elijah Williams leads the Bears with 6.5 tackles for loss and six sacks, while Nana Asante has recorded six tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. The Eagles have only allowed 12 sacks this season, which ranks No. 2 in the MEAC.

Morgan State has once again been plagued by offensive inconsistency. The Bears rank No. 98 nationally in total offense, averaging 311.3 yards per game. Linebacker Jaki Brevard and defensive tackle Quantez Mansfield anchor an Eagles' defense that has been much improved this season.

The preseason hype surrounding Morgan State centered around the elite defense, but the lack of improvement on offense has cost the Bears multiple games this season. If the Bears cannot establish any momentum offensively, the Eagles will wear Morgan State's defense down with an efficient offensive attack. I expect this game to be extremely competitive early, but the Eagles pull away behind Harris and running back J'Mari Taylor.

Prediction: North Carolina Central (28-13)

No. 16 William & Mary at Stony Brook

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (FloSports)

In a chaotic CAA race, every game is important. Eight teams have a 2-1 conference record or better, which means there is no margin for error for either team this weekend. William & Mary suffered an upset loss to Towson before rebounding with a win over Campbell. The Seawolves lost to Villanova but got a massive win over Towson last weekend.

The decision to start quarterback Tyler Knoop has unlocked the Stony Brook offense. Last week, he had his best performance of the season, completing 34-of-40 attempts for 387 passing yards and six touchdowns. Cornerback Jalen Jones leads the nation with 14 pass breakups and is the leader of a secondary that ranks No. 2 in the CAA with seven interceptions.

William & Mary ranks No. 3 nationally for rushing offense, averaging over 275 yards per game. The Tribe is 0-2 when rushing for less than 170 yards this season. Running backs Bronson Yoder and Malachi Imoh have combined for over 1,100 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Stony Brook has struggled to stop the run, allowing almost 200 yards per game this season. The Seawolves have allowed over 240 rushing yards in back-to-back games.

Stony Brook also has a dynamic weapon at running back as Roland Dempster ranks No. 3 nationally with 12 rushing touchdowns. Dempster has topped the 100-yard mark in four consecutive games, posting 803 rushing yards this season.

I expect the Tribe to take advantage of the mismatch in the trenches and establish the run early with Yoder and Imoh. Stony Brook has the talent to keep this game competitive, but I trust William & Mary's defense to make some key plays late for a huge conference victory.

Prediction: William & Mary (27-24)

Other Week 9 FCS Predictions:

No. 6 SEMO 34, Gardner-Webb 17
No. 8 Tarleton State 38, Austin Peay 20
No. 11 Idaho 31, Eastern Washington 21
No. 13 Villanova 30, New Hampshire 14
No. 15 Rhode Island 23, Maine 16
Columbia 24, No. 22 Dartmouth 21
No. 23 ETSU 31, Wofford 14

More FCS Football News

Week 9 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 23 (Week 9)
Behind The Numbers: Week 8 FCS Football Review
FCS Football Recap: Week 8 Takeaways
FCS Football Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 9 Ballot

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