FCS Playoffs Semifinal Preview: North Dakota State at No. 2 Montana

Preview of the FCS Playoffs semifinal matchup between North Dakota State and Montana on Saturday afternoon in Missoula

The winner of this game will advance to face the winner of No. 1 South Dakota State vs. No. 5 UAlbany in the 2024 FCS National Championship.

2023 Predictions Record: 88-40
2022 Predictions Record: 115-35

North Dakota State (11-3) @ No. 2 Montana (12-1)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. CT (Dec. 16, ESPN2)
Line: North Dakota State (-1)
Series History: North Dakota State leads 6-4

Key Players: North Dakota State

Cam Miller (QB): 199 for 267 (74.5%), 2,531 Passing Yards, 18 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 645 Rushing Yards, 13 Rushing TDs
Eli Green (WR): 40 Receptions, 779 Receiving Yards, 19.5 YPC, 2 Receiving TDs
TaMerik Williams (RB): 113 Carries, 715 Rushing Yards, 6.3 YPC, 8 Rushing TDs
Cole Wisniewski (DB): 81 Total Tackles, 2 TFLs, 8 INTs, 5 PBUs, 1 Forced Fumble
Jake Kava (DL): 45 Total Tackles, 13 TFLs, 7 Sacks
Logan Kopp (LB): 80 Total Tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3.5 Sacks, 3 INTs, 4 PBUs, 2 Forced Fumbles

Key Players: Montana

Clifton McDowell (QB): 122 for 205 (59.5%), 1,701 Passing Yards, 12 Passing TDs, 3 INTs, 734 Ruhsing Yards, 9 Rushing TDs
Junior Bergen (WR): 49 Receptions, 707 Receiving Yards, 14.4 YPC, 4 Receiving TDs, 723 Return Yards, 3 Return Touchdowns
Eli Gillman (RB): 175 Carries, 901 Rushing Yards, 5.1 YPC, 10 Rushing TDs, 102 Receiving Yards
Riley Wilson (LB): 46 Total Tackles, 14 TFLs, 8.5 Sacks, 4 QBHs
Trevin Gradney (DB): 22 Total Tackles, 5 INTs, 6 PBUs, 1 Forced Fumble
Alex Gubner (DL): 34 Total Tackles, 9 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 2 PBUs, 2 QBHs

North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz will resign at the end of the season to become an assistant coach at USC. It is a similar exit to former head coaches Craig Bohl and Chris Klieman, both of whom led the Bison to the FCS National Championship in their final seasons.

The Bison offense is beginning to find its rhythm behind an impressive rushing attack that ranks fourth in the nation (241.8 YPG). Running back TaMerik Williams leads the Bison rushing attack, but quarterback Cam Miller is going to be the x-factor this weekend.

Miller has played at an extremely high level this season but struggled against Montana State in the second round with only 66 passing yards. The Grizzlies are going to be more aggressive and more physical than the Bobcats, which could create problems for Miller. He will need to lean on his talented receiver core, led by an emerging star in sophomore Eli Green. Green has recorded 60 or more yards in five consecutive games, including a 116-yard performance against South Dakota in the quarterfinals.

Defensively, North Dakota State has excelled in getting to the quarterback as the Bison have recorded two or more sacks in five consecutive games. Jake Kava and Dylan Hendricks (10.5 TFLs; 6.5 Sacks) lead the Bison pass rush and this group will need to find a way to slow down quarterback Clifton McDowell. Tackling has been inconsistent for the Bison, which could be something to watch this weekend against an elite group of playmakers for Montana. 

Many experts eliminated Montana from national title contention after an unimpressive start to the season, including a shocking loss to Northern Arizona. Since that loss, Montana has won nine consecutive games and now has a chance to make the eighth FCS National Championship appearance in school history.

Quarterback Clifton McDowell has been special this season since stepping into the starting role, going 9-0 as the starter for the Grizzlies. He has done an excellent job of protecting the ball, which will be key against the Bison secondary that has forced the most interceptions in the nation (21). 

The matchup to watch will be the talented Montana wide receiver core against the North Dakota State secondary. Keelan White (739 Receiving Yards), Junior Bergen, and Aaron Fontes (517 Receiving Yards) all can create explosive plays for this offense. Bergen is also tied for the most punt return touchdowns in the FCS and ranks No. 5 in kickoff return yardage this season. 

The Grizzlies have done an excellent job at slowing down the run, allowing only 97.4 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Defensive tackle Alex Gubner is the catalyst for the front seven as the senior takes up space and allows Montana's talented linebacker core to make plays in the backfield. Montana ranks No. 5 in the FCS in interceptions, led by cornerbacks Trevin Gradney and Corbin Walker (2 INTs; 8 PBUs). 

The Bison seem to be peaking at the right time, but Montana's aggressive 3-3-5 defense is going to create problems for Cam Miller this weekend. I expect McDowell to shine on the biggest stage and the elite receiver core for the Grizzlies will be the difference in this matchup.

Prediction: Montana (34-31)

FCS Playoffs Semifinal Preview: No. 5 UAlbany at No. 1 South Dakota State