2024 FCS Playoffs: Second-Round Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | Dec 6, 2024

Mercer cornerback TJ Moore / Mercer Athletics

The race to Frisco continues this weekend after an exciting first round of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. We preview and make our official predictions for all eight second-round games below. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 162-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75

Lehigh at No. 8 Idaho

Kickoff: 8 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Lehigh had one of the biggest wins of the first round, upsetting No. 9 Richmond for the first postseason win since 2011. Idaho enters the postseason with plenty of momentum, winning five consecutive games as multiple starters return from injury.

Quarterback Jack Layne has been playing at a high level since returning from injury, throwing for 512 yards and six touchdowns in the past two games. Mark Hamper is having a breakout freshman campaign, leading the Vandals with 853 receiving yards and five touchdowns. It will be interesting to see how the Vandals attack a Lehigh secondary, holding opponents to 5.4 yards per pass attempt.

The dynamic running back duo of Luke Yoder and Jaden Green lead the Lehigh offense, combining for over 1,500 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. Green is also a threat on special teams, leading the Hawks with over 500 kick return yards. Idaho's defense has held opponents to 3.6 yards per carry, holding ten opponents under 150 rushing yards this season. Defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby will be a player to watch, leading the Vandals with 13.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.

Multiple Lehigh defenders suffered injuries last week, which could impact the Hawks' ability to slow down the Vandals' offense. Idaho will lean on running back Nate Thomas, creating opportunities for the Vandals to push the ball downfield. The Idaho front seven will be too much down the stretch as the Vandals secure the second-round victory.

Prediction: Idaho (34-17)

---

No. 10 Rhode Island at No. 7 Mercer

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Rhode Island escaped with a 21-17 win over Central Connecticut State in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. Mercer wants to build on its historic season, in which the Bears won their first conference championship in program history.

The Rams have leaned on the run after losing starting quarterback Devin Farrell to injury. Malik Grant broke the single-season rushing record last weekend, totaling 1,390 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Rhode Island was held under 90 rushing yards in both losses this season.

Mercer leads the nation in rushing defense, holding opponents to 67.4 rushing yards per game. Only one FCS opponent has topped the 90-yard mark this season, while six teams have failed to reach 60 rushing yards against the Bears. Defensive linemen Arias Nash and Brayden Manley have combined for 24.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks.

Dwanye McGee has emerged as a workhorse for the Mercer offense, leading the Bears with 1,018 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Freshman quarterback Whitt Newbauer is starting to find his rhythm, throwing for 1,251 passing yards and ten touchdowns. Mercer's offensive line will need to neutralize A.J. Pena, who has recorded 20 tackles for loss and 12 sacks.

I expect Rhode Island to struggle against Mercer's defense, which will put pressure on quarterback Hunter Helms. The Bears force turnovers on 4% of all defensive snaps, while Helms has struggled to protect the ball. I expect Mercer to pull away in the second half behind another impressive defensive performance.

Prediction: Mercer (27-13)

---

UT Martin at No. 1 Montana State

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

UT Martin had the most dominant win of the first round, demolishing No. 16 New Hampshire in a 41-10 blowout victory. Montana State is the only remaining undefeated team in the FCS, winning by an average margin of 23.6 points this season.

Montana State leads the nation in rushing offense, averaging over 317 yards per game and 6.94 yards per attempt. The Bobcats have topped the 300-yard mark in eight games this season, led by Scottre Humphrey with 1,223 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. It starts with the offensive line, which only allows negative plays on 4.41% of all offensive snaps.

It will be interesting to see how UT Martin's defense matches up against Montana State's rushing attack. The Skyhawks rank fifth nationally in rushing defense, holding opponents to 84.9 yards per game. They have held six of their past seven opponents under 100 rushing yards. Linebacker Jaylon Sharpe leads the defense with 79 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, and two sacks.

UT Martin has the talent to keep this game competitive early, but Montana State's depth will help the Bobcats create separation in the second half. I expect another electric performance from quarterback Tommy Mellott while Montana State's front seven limits UT Martin's rushing offense.

Prediction: Montana State (41-20)

---

No. 12 Illinois State at No. 5 UC Davis

Kickoff: 3 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Illinois State allowed over 600 yards of total offense but forced eight turnovers in a first-round win over SEMO. UC Davis is searching for its first win in the FCS Playoffs since 2018 after an impressive 10-2 campaign under first-year head coach Tim Plough.

An overlooked aspect of this UC Davis team is the rushing defense, which has held three of the past five opponents under 100 rushing yards. Illinois State has struggled to run the ball, only posting 45 rushing yards on 32 carries last weekend. It will be essential for Wenkers Wright to make some plays on the ground, taking the pressure off quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse.

The key for Illinois State's defense will be to generate pressure on quarterback Miles Hastings. The Redbirds allowed over 550 passing yards against SEMO, which could be a cause for concern against the Aggies, who are averaging 312 passing yards per game. It will be a challenge stopping Lan Larison, who leads the Aggies with 1,321 rushing yards and 755 receiving yards.

UC Davis has the talent to compete with the Top 4 seeds in the bracket, starting with an impressive win over Illinois State. The Aggies will be too much offensively, while the defense suffocates the Redbird rushing attack.

Prediction: UC Davis (31-21)

---

No. 13 Tarleton State at No. 4 South Dakota

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Tarleton State defeated Drake in the first round of the FCS Playoffs, winning its first postseason game at the FCS level. South Dakota won a share of the MVFC title for the first time in program history and looks to build on that momentum this weekend.

This game will be decided by which team can establish their rushing attack. Tarleton State is led by Kayvon Britten, who has recorded 1,896 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. He has surpassed 100 rushing yards in ten of the 12 games this season. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis combine to form a dangerous 1-2 punch for South Dakota. The duo has combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 28 rushing touchdowns.

The Coyotes have done a much better job stopping the run this season, holding opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. Mi'Quise Grace is a force off the edge, leading the Coyotes with 17 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. Linebackers Gary Bryant III and Nate Ewell are one of the best linebacker duos in the nation, recording over 150 total tackles and seven tackles for loss.

The Texans want to set up deep shots in the passing game with their rushing attack. Darius Cooper might be the most talented wide receiver in the nation, leading the Texans with 1,289 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. The Coyotes have done an excellent job against the pass, holding opponents to 6.45 yards per attempt.

Tarleton State has the individual talent offensively to give South Dakota's defense some problems. It's the other side of the ball where the concern begins to grow. The Coyotes should be able to run the ball and limit offensive possessions for Tarleton State's offense. It will be a heavy dose of Pierre and Theis as the Coyotes advance to the quarterfinals.

Prediction: South Dakota (38-17)

---

No. 15 Abilene Christian at No. 2 North Dakota State

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Abilene Christian won the first FCS postseason game in history, dominating Northern Arizona in a 24-0 shutout victory. North Dakota State won a share of its 11th MVFC title under first-year head coach Tim Polasek.

The biggest question in this game is if Abilene Christian can build on its dominant defensive performance last weekend. North Dakota State enters the postseason with one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, led by quarterback Cam Miller. Miller has completed 74.2% of his passes for 2,340 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and only one interception.

Abilene Christian allows over 160 rushing yards per game, which could be problematic against a physical North Dakota State offense. The Wildcats have allowed 100 or more rushing yards in 11 of their 13 games. CharMar Brown was named the Jerry Rice Award this week after leading the Bison with 965 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.

The one area in which Abilene Christian could shine is the passing attack against North Dakota State's secondary. Quarterback Maverick McIvor is projected to return this weekend after a late-season injury. McIvor has completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,675 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, and five interceptions. The Wildcats feature two elite pass catchers, Blayne Taylor and Nehemiah Martinez I, who have combined for over 2,000 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns.

Abilene Christian will need to be balanced this weekend, utilizing Sam Hicks and the rushing attack to set up some deep shots. The concern is that the Wildcats cannot match the physicality at the line of scrimmage for 60 minutes. I expect Abilene Christian to be able to score some points, but defensively will not have enough to keep the Bison from rolling in the Fargodome.

Prediction: North Dakota State (45-28)

---

No. 14 Montana at No. 3 South Dakota State

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

It will be a rematch of the 2024 FCS National Championship in Brookings. Montana advanced after defeating Tennessee State in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. South Dakota State, having won eight straight postseason games, begins its quest for a third consecutive FCS National Championship.

This game appears to be a mismatch for a Montana offense that has struggled to find consistency. South Dakota State ranks No. 4 nationally in total defense, holding opponents to 272.9 yards per game. The Jackrabbits also force a negative play on 10.2% of defensive snaps, recording 74 tackles for loss this season.

Montana's offense hinges on its ability to establish the run. Eli Gillman leads the Grizzlies with 1,092 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. The Jackrabbits have held seven opponents under 100 rushing yards, ranking No. 6 nationally in rushing defense. There is also a question surrounding who will take the most snaps at quarterback. Logan Fife has been the most consistent option, but Keali'i Ah Yat continues to find his way on the field.

The biggest key to the game for Montana will be stopping South Dakota State's potent rushing attack. The Jackrabbits are averaging over 240 rushing yards per game, topping the 100-yard mark in every game this season. Montana's defense was dominant at the line of scrimmage last weekend, holding Tennessee State to -19 rushing yards. The Grizzlies face a much more significant challenge this weekend but will need to win the battle at the point of attack.

College football is all about matchups, and this may be the worst matchup for Montana in the bracket. I expect South Dakota State to lean on the run while making Montana's passing attack beat them over the top, which is a recipe for disaster. The Jackrabbits make a statement with a dominant win over the Grizzlies.

Prediction: South Dakota State (34-14)

---

No. 6 Incarnate Word at No. 11 Villanova

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the second round. Villanova escaped with a 22-17 win over Eastern Kentucky last weekend after some questionable officiating. Incarnate Word won its third conference title in the past four seasons. Still, some of their performances this season have certain people questioning if this team is a title contender.

The defense is one of the most underrated aspects of this Incarnate Word team. The Cardinals have generated 82 tackles for loss, 35 sacks, and 13 interceptions this season. They rank top five among playoff teams in turnover and tackle-for-loss rates, generating a negative play on 9.9% of defensive snaps. Linebackers Dune Smith and Mister Williams have combined for 23.5 tackles for loss and ten sacks.

Villanova may be one of the sleepers in the postseason because of the experience at multiple key positions. The problem is that the offense appears stuck in third gear, failing to generate the same explosiveness as last season. Quarterback Connor Watkins is a dynamic athlete that can create problems outside the pocket. He has recorded 1,999 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 437 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns.

Incarnate Word's offense is one of the most explosive in the nation but has sometimes lacked consistency this season. Zach Calzada is completing over 65% of his passes for 3,351 passing yards and 33 passing touchdowns. The Cardinals have one of the best wide receivers in the nation on the outside. Jalen Walthall leads the offense with 1,149 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns.

I expect this game to be highly competitive early, with both offenses finding success in various ways. My biggest concern is the lack of explosiveness for the Wildcats, which could hinder their ability to match Incarnate Word down the stretch. I expect Calzada to have another impressive performance while the Incarnate Word defense makes a few key stops in the fourth quarter to secure the win.

Prediction: Incarnate Word (38-28)

More FCS Football News

Behind The Numbers: FCS Playoffs Second-Round Preview
2024-25 FCS Football Head Coaching Change Tracker
McKinnell: Official Ballot For The 2024 Buck Buchanan Award
McKinnell: Official Ballot For The 2024 Walter Payton Award

BTN: 2nd Rd. Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs Second-Round Preview. dark. Next