FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 30 (Week 10)

Timothy Rosario | Oct 30, 2024

Mercer running back Dwayne McGee / Mercer Athletics

After each week, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2024 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 10.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State

Montana State is fighting for seeding over the final few weeks of the season. If the Bobcats finish the season 12-0, they will have an excellent chance to secure a Top 2 seed. Games against UC Davis and Montana are excellent chances to solidify their resume with ranked wins.

Should Be In: UC Davis

UC Davis moves into the "Should Be In" tier after a 10-point win over Eastern Washington. The Aggies will need one more win to jump into the "Lock" tier, which should come this weekend against Northern Colorado. The Aggies could solidify their case for a potential Top 3 seed with a win over Montana State on Nov. 16.

Work To Do: Idaho, Montana, Northern Arizona

Sacramento State has been removed from the playoff picture following a loss to Idaho State. Idaho and Montana are one win away from the "Should Be In" tier. The Grizzlies should secure their spot with a win over Cal Poly this weekend, while the Vandals will enjoy a much-needed bye week.

Northern Arizona is an interesting contender for an at-large bid. The Lumberjacks have already played their toughest games on the schedule and have an excellent chance to win their last four games. If NAU wins their final four games, the Lumberjacks will be 8-4 with a strong strength of schedule. They could shake up the bubble, which could leave a team from the SoCon or CAA on the outside looking in.

Big South-OVC

Locks: SEMO

SEMO has secured its spot in the postseason after earning its eighth win of the season. The Redhawks are 8-0 against the FCS and 5-0 in conference play. The margin of victory has decreased, but the Redhawks should be favored in their last three games, giving them an excellent shot to finish 11-1. If the Redhawks win out, they could be in the discussion for a Top 4 seed.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: UT Martin, Tennessee State

UT Martin improved to 5-3 with a dominant performance against Eastern Illinois. Their only FCS losses are to SEMO and Missouri State, both by less than eight points. The Skyhawks have been dominant over the past few games, winning their last four games by a combined score of 156-64, including an FBS win over Kennesaw State.

Tennessee State enjoyed a bye week in Week 9, but the Tigers have won four consecutive games, including a win over Howard. The Tigers host the Skyhawks in Week 10, which will have significant conference and playoff implications. The winner keeps their postseason dreams alive, while the loser is most likely sitting on the outside looking in. UT Martin has the stronger resume with an FBS win, while Tennessee State ranks No. 62 in the Massey Ratings and has a weak strength of schedule (No. 87).

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Villanova, Rhode Island, Richmond, William & Mary, Stony Brook, Hampton

The chaos in the CAA continued last weekend as 11 of the 16 teams in the conference still have a record of 4-4 or better. For the sanity of myself and the readers, we have removed all the 4-4 teams for now because seven wins will not be enough to secure an at-large bid this season. This removes Maine, New Hampshire, Towson, and Monmouth for now.

Rhode Island and Richmond are best positioned for the postseason due to 4-0 records in conference play. The Rams remain undefeated against FCS competition and could find their way into Top 8 seed consideration by finishing 11-1. Richmond is 6-1 against the FCS and has won six consecutive games, including a dominant win over Delaware. Stony Brook appears to be in a great spot after a win over William & Mary. The Seawolves are 6-1 against the FCS, and their only loss is against Villanova, who is also 6-1 against the FCS. William & Mary and Hampton both sit at 5-2 (2-2 CAA) and may need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. The Pirates dominated Elon in Week 9 but lost the head-to-head matchup against the Tribe.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State

North Dakota State has shifted its focus to securing the No. 1 overall seed. The Bison moved to 8-1 with a win over Murray State last weekend and will be heavy favorites over Northern Iowa in Week 10. The Bison will have two tough tests to end the season, including a road trip against South Dakota.

Should Be In: South Dakota State, South Dakota

Both of these teams are one win away from moving into the "Lock" tier, which requires at least seven wins. South Dakota State defeated South Dakota in an overtime thriller, but both teams proved that they are contenders for the national championship. The Jackrabbits will be heavily favored in their remaining games, but Missouri State will be an interesting test on Nov. 23. The Coyotes will end the season with back-to-back ranked matchups, including hosting No. 1 North Dakota State on Nov. 23.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Illinois State

North Dakota and Illinois State are the only remaining MVFC teams with a chance to secure an at-large bid this season. The Hawks suffered an upset loss to Youngstown State last weekend and have a brutal three-game stretch to end the season. Games against South Dakota State, South Dakota, and Illinois State await the Hawks, in which they cannot afford to go 0-3. The Redbirds also sit at 5-3 but have a much easier path to the postseason with games against UNI and Indiana State. The must-win game for both of these teams will take place on Nov. 23 when they meet to end the season.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Robert Morris, Wagner

The NEC will be a one-bid league this season, going to the conference champion. Duquesne appears to be the favorite to win the conference, sitting at 5-2 with a win over Youngstown State. Robert Morris is the only other undefeated team in conference play after defeating Saint Francis in Week 9. The Dukes will host the Colonials on Nov. 9, which could determine who represents the conference in the postseason. Wagner still has an outside shot at the auto-bid but lost the head-to-head matchup against Robert Morris. The Seahawks could make this race interesting with a win over Duquesne on Nov. 16.

Patriot

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Holy Cross, Georgetown

After having multiple teams compete for bids the past three seasons, the Patriot League will be a one-bid league this season. Holy Cross is the early favorite to secure the auto bid, moving to 3-0 in conference play with a win over Lafayette. Georgetown is the only other team with more than one conference victory, winning three of its past four games. These two teams will meet on Nov. 23 determining which team represents the conference in the postseason.

Pioneer

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake, Dayton, Morehead State

Despite being another one-bid league, the race for the auto bid will be extremely competitive. After Week 9, Drake and St. Thomas appear to have separated themselves from the field as the only remaining undefeated teams in conference play. The Tommies are not eligible for the postseason, which positions the Bulldogs as the favorites to secure the auto-bid. Dayton and Morehead State are 3-1 in conference play but remain long shots to win the conference.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: Mercer

Mercer moves into the "Should Be In" tier after a ranked win over Western Carolina. The Bears have seven wins and need one more to secure their spot in the postseason. They will have a chance to secure a Top 8 seed by winning their final three conference games.

Work To Do: ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina

These three teams may be fighting for two at-large bids as the playoff bubble shrinks. Chattanooga remains in the best spot with a 5-1 record against the FCS and holds the head-to-head win over ETSU. If the Mocs can defeat Western Carolina this weekend, Chattanooga may secure a spot in the "Should Be In" tier. Western Carolina faces a must-win situation against the Mocs after starting the season 1-3. ETSU has a massive opportunity this weekend against Mercer. The Mocs and Bucs will most likely have to reach eight wins to secure their spot in the field.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: Incarnate Word

Incarnate Word still has work to do to clinch the auto-bid but holds a commanding lead in the race for the Southland championship. The Cardinals are 3-0 in conference play and hold key head-to-head wins over Nicholls and Southeastern Louisiana. This team could make a run at a Top 8 seed by winning their remaining four games, including a difficult test against Stephen F. Austin.

Work To Do: Lamar, Stephen F. Austin

Southeastern Louisiana exits the playoff picture after its fifth loss of the season. Stephen F. Austin has the best opportunity to earn an at-large bid, with games against Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word remaining on the schedule. Lamar will have to win out to have a chance at an at-large bid, which includes games against Incarnate Word, Nicholls, and Southeastern Louisiana.

UAC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah

North Alabama was eliminated after a tough loss to Central Arkansas, while the Bears improved to 6-1 against the FCS and have a chance to earn a Top 8 seed. Abilene Christian had a Week 9 bye week but has games against three potential playoff teams in its final four games. The Wildcats will need to win two of those three games to cement their spot in the field.

Tarleton State remains in the best spot for the postseason, as the Texans remain 4-0 in conference play. The Texans are undefeated against FCS competition but lack a signature win on their resume. Southern Utah is hanging onto its postseason hopes by a thread with a 4-4 overall record. The Thunderbirds will need to win their remaining games, which include matchups against Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian.

Note: North Carolina Central and Jackson State have the potential to build solid resumes for an at-large bid. If these teams win their conferences, they will meet in the Celebration Bowl and will not be eligible for the FCS Playoffs. If either team slips up in conference play, both will most likely be in contention for an at-large bid. The Eagles have three solid out-of-conference wins and made the playoffs last season.