Week 5 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | Sep 27, 2024

Mercer quarterback DJ Smith / Mercer Athletics

We preview and make our official predictions for the top FCS games on the Week 5 slate right here. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 52-15
2022-23 Record: 207-75

No. 12 Mercer at No. 23 Wofford

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Both of these teams have exceeded preseason expectations, earning Top 25 consideration with ranked wins on the road. Mercer made an early statement with a conference win over Chattanooga, while Wofford stunned Richmond in a Week 2 upset win.

Wofford quarterback Amari Odom is putting together an impressive freshman campaign, throwing for 709 yards and four touchdowns with zero turnovers. His connection with Kyle Watkins has given opposing defenses problems, while the emergence of freshman Isaiah Scott gives the Terriers another weapon.

The biggest question in this game is if the Wofford offense can move the ball consistently against Mercer's defense. The Bears are holding opponents to 243.5 yards per game and are allowing only 9.0 points per game this season. The rushing defense has been elite, holding opposing offenses to 1.2 yards per carry and 32.5 yards per game. Linebacker Marques Thomas leads the Bears with six tackles for loss, while TJ Moore and Myles Redding have anchored the secondary with four combined interceptions.

Wofford has shown the potential of being a dark horse in the SoCon race this season, but Mercer's defense is going to be too much for a young offense. The x-factor will be the playmaking ability of Mercer quarterback DJ Smith, who has amassed over 1,000 yards of total offense and 11 total touchdowns.

Prediction: Mercer (23-13)

No. 17 Southern Illinois at No. 5 South Dakota

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Injuries have changed the trajectory of Southern Illinois' season as the Salukis are missing key players at multiple positions. The Salukis will now face the task of facing three consecutive Top 25 opponents. South Dakota is still one of the biggest question marks in the nation, as the Coyotes have only faced one FCS opponent in their first three games.

Hunter Simmons had a solid performance in his first start last weekend but will need to take his game to the next level against the Coyotes. The dynamic wide receiver trio of Keontez Lewis, Nah'shawn Hezekiah, and Vinson Davis III have combined for over 600 receiving yards and three touchdowns. South Dakota's secondary has been solid, holding opponents to 130.6 passing yards per game and only one touchdown.

The duo of Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have combined for over 450 yards rushing and six touchdowns this season. South Dakota is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has leaned on the rushing attack, but will face a Southern Illinois defense that has only allowed one FCS opponent to surpass 75 rushing yards. Linebacker Ben Bogle has been a matchup nightmare, leading the Salukis with 35 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks.

The injuries were too much to overcome last weekend for the Salukis, which will be the story once again in Week 5. The Coyotes will put too much pressure on Simmons behind Mi'Quise Grace and Nick Gaes while the Salukis struggle to find any consistency on the ground. Another big game from the Coyoyes' rushing attack will propel South Dakota to a huge ranked win this weekend.

Prediction: South Dakota (31-20)

No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 18 Illinois State

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Despite multiple key injuries, Illinois State continues to find ways to win this season. The Redbirds have an opportunity to upset the Bison for the first time since 2010. North Dakota State has won three consecutive games since a Week 1 loss to Colorado.

This game will be determined by North Dakota State's ability to stop the run, a significant concern for the Bison. Over the past two games, the Bison have allowed over 200 yards on the ground and seven touchdowns. Illinois State has averaged over 205 rushing yards per game, led by Wenkers Wright with 445 rushing yards. Quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse is also finding his rhythm in this offense, recording over 600 passing yards and 11 total touchdowns.

Despite the concerns defensively, the Bison offense continues to be one of the most efficient units in the nation. Quarterback Cam Miller has taken his game to the next level, throwing for over 900 yards and 11 total touchdowns. Running back CharMar Brown has emerged as a breakout star, leading the Bison with 266 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Redbirds have been inconsistent defensively, allowing almost 400 yards per game.

This matchup should be one of the most explosive games of the weekend, as both offenses should find plenty of success. Cam Miller's experience will be the difference for the Bison, while the defense will make a key stop late to secure the ranked victory on the road.

Prediction: North Dakota State (38-35)

No. 4 Idaho at No. 14 UC Davis

Kickoff: 9 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Idaho will face its third consecutive ranked opponent, while UC Davis has a chance to make a statement with a Top 5 upset in their conference opener. The Vandals have played four of their first five games on the road, including two FBS matchups. The question will be, do the Vandals have enough gas to avoid a letdown this weekend?

Lan Larison has remained a star for the Aggies, making plays in the rushing game and a receiving threat. He leads the Aggies with 393 rushing yards and ranks second with 196 receiving yards. Wide receiver C.J. Hutton has developed into a top target for quarterback Miles Hastings. Hastings may be the x-factor this weekend, throwing for over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns but recording five interceptions. If Hastings fails to protect the ball, Idaho's defense has shown the ability to change a game.

As Jack Wagner finds his rhythm at quarterback, the Vandals have leaned on their rushing attack to win games. Nate Thomas and Eli Cummings have combined for over 400 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Aggies have allowed over 160 rushing yards per game over the past two weeks, including over 200 yards against Southern Utah. Wagner's development will also be a storyline against a UC Davis defense that has been stout in the secondary.

UC Davis is talented enough to pull off the upset this weekend, but I expect Idaho's defense to make enough plays to win a close game. The Aggies have allowed nine sacks over the past three games, which could lead to another impressive performance from Keyshawn James-Newby.

Prediction: Idaho (27-23)

No. 19 Lamar at No. 7 Central Arkansas

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Lamar has continued to exceed expectations under head coach Pete Rossomando, but the Cardinals will face their toughest test this season. Central Arkansas has been one of the most dominant teams at the FCS level, outscoring FCS opponents 135-47 over the past three weeks.

Everything starts with Central Arkansas' explosive rushing attack, led by ShunDerrick Powell. Powell, combined with Darius Hale, is helping Central Arkansas average over 260 yards per game on the ground. The Cardinals struggled to stop the run last week, allowing over 200 rushing yards to Texas Southern. Lamar's front seven will have to limit explosive plays, which has been the catalyst to Central Arkansas' success offensively.

The injury to quarterback Robert Coleman has created some uncertainty for the Cardinals, but Jakolby Longino has shown promise in limited action. Running back Khalan Griffin will be the x-factor as he leads the Cardinals with 483 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Lamar has not allowed a sack over the past two games but will face the challenge of slowing down David Walker, who has posted 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks for the Bears.

The Bears will have too many playmakers this weekend, putting pressure on Lamar's offense in this matchup. Expect another big performance from Powell while Central Arkansas makes enough plays defensively to pull away for a huge ranked win.

Prediction: Central Arkansas (42-20)

Other Week 5 FCS Predictions:

No. 3 Montana State 38, Idaho State 14
No. 8 Montana 41, Eastern Washington 20
No. 10 Sacramento State 24, Northern Arizona 17
No. 11 William & Mary 28, Hampton 20
No. 13 SEMO 41, Northwestern State 14
No. 16 Tarleton State 31, SLU 17
No. 20 Abilene Christian 42, Utah Tech 10
Chattanooga 31, Portland State 16
UT Martin 30, Kennesaw State 20
ETSU 37, The Citadel 17
North Carolina Central 35, Norfolk State 13
Grambling State 31, Prairie View A&M 20

More FCS Football News

Week 5 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
Walter Payton Award Power Rankings (Week 4)
FCS Football Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 5 Ballot
Behind The Numbers: Week 4 FCS Football Review
FCS Football Recap: Week 4 Takeaways

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