Behind The Numbers: Week 3 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Sep 18, 2024

Jackson State Athletics

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 3 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 3?

Southern Illinois quarterback DJ Williams / Southern Illinois Athletics

North Dakota State 38, ETSU 35

Success Rate: North Dakota State (51%), ETSU (47%)

The analytics show that both offenses performed at a high level throughout this game. The most significant difference was ETSU's ability to produce chunk plays. The Bucs only generated six explosive plays but consistently gained 8-12 yards per play against the Bison. ETSU averaged 7.1 yards per play, but the difference was evident on the ground. ETSU running back Bryson Irby posted 147 yards and three rushing touchdowns, averaging over 9.8 yards per carry.

North Dakota State's offense has been efficient, but the rushing attack has not consistently produced explosive plays. The offensive line struggled against the Bucs, allowing nine tackles for loss and three sacks. Despite North Dakota State's struggles, the Bison found an improbable way to escape with a win. ETSU's win probability was likely over 90%, but quarterback Cam Miller continued his stellar season, leading the Bison on two scoring drives to secure the win.

Southern Illinois 35, Incarnate Word 28

Success Rate: Southern Illinois (46%), Incarnate Word (42%)

Southern Illinois dominated the first half as the Salukis scored on five of their six drives before halftime. The Salukis generated explosive plays on 22% of their first-half plays, including a 57-yard touchdown run from wide receiver Keontez Lewis. Quarterback DJ Williams was the key for the Salukis, posting 301 passing yards, 79 rushing yards, and three total touchdowns. The Salukis were efficient on third down, converting 12-of-20 attempts. Defensively, the Salukis held the Cardinals to only 5.7 yards per play after Incarnate Word averaged over 7.0 yards per play against South Dakota State.

Duquesne 28, Youngstown State 25

Success Rate: Duquesne (50%), Youngstown State (47%)

In massive college football upsets, we usually see a statistical anomaly in turnovers, explosive plays, or red zone efficiency. This was not the case in Duquesne's upset win over Youngstown State. The Dukes averaged 8.0 yards per play and finished with a success rate of 50%. JaMario Clements led Duquesne with 204 rushing yards on only 12 carries, averaging over 17 yards per carry. Youngstown State was plagued by the same issues we've seen all season, averaging less than 5.0 yards per play. The Penguins dominate the time of possession but fail to capitalize on the offense's success. The lack of explosive plays has been the difference in Youngstown State's losses this season.

Abilene Christian 24, Northern Colorado 22

Success Rate: Abilene Christian (37%), Northern Colorado (36%)

Abilene Christian escaped with the two-point win after a last-second field goal. The Wildcats finished the game with a success rate of only 37% and converted only on 2-of-12 third-down attempts. Abilene Christian averaged 6.0 yards per play but was forced to punt on its first seven drives. Northern Colorado's defense has performed well against two explosive offenses, a sign of improvement for the Bears. The Bears struggled offensively, averaging 3.4 yards per play and 1.9 yards per pass attempt.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

McNeese Athletics

UC Davis 24, Southern Utah 21

Success Rate: UC Davis (41%), Southern Utah (45%)

UC Davis struggled in close games over the past two seasons but scored 18 points in the third quarter to erase a 14-6 halftime deficit. Southern Utah posted a better success rate than the Aggies, but that could be due to the Aggies' conservative approach in the fourth quarter. After an early interception, quarterback Miles Hastings completed 80% of passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Southern Utah struggled as Bronson Barron and Jackson Berry combined for 130 passing yards and one interception.

McNeese State 28, Stephen F. Austin 24

Success Rate: McNeese (37%), Stephen F. Austin (47%)

Stephen F. Austin had a clear success rate advantage, but three turnovers eliminated any momentum the Lumberjacks generated. The playmaking ability of quarterback Clifton McDowell was the difference in this game. McNeese struggled to generate any offense, but McDowell's 54-yard touchdown pass to end the first half sparked the offense. After that play, McNeese generated seven explosive plays and scored 21 points in the second half. McDowell led the Cowboys with 313 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns.

Indiana State 24, Dayton 13

Success Rate: Indiana State (11%), Dayton (34%)

This was one of the most unique outcomes of the 2024 season. Indiana State had one of the worst offensive performances of the season, generating only 92 total yards and posting a success rate of 11%. The Sycamores scored two defensive touchdowns and found a way to win despite being outgained by almost 250 total yards.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 3?

Jackson State Athletics

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

Jackson State 33, Southern 15

Success Rate: Jackson State (49%), Southern (35%)

Southern quarterback Noah Bodden passed over 300 yards, which helped Southern score some late points to make this game look more competitive. Jackson State dominated the line of scrimmage, holding the Jaguars to 1.4 yards per carry. The Tigers rolled up over 200 rushing yards and averaged almost 5.0 yards per carry behind a deep running back room.

Idaho 41, UAlbany 13

Success Rate: Idaho (47%), UAlbany (25%)

The Idaho passing attack must improve for the Vandals to be an elite team, but the defense and rushing attack are two of the best in the FCS. The Vandals suffocated UAlbany's offense, holding the Great Danes to only 60 rushing yards on 33 attempts. Idaho's defense recorded eight tackles for loss and four sacks, led by Keyshawn James-Newby and Dallas Afalava. The rushing attack was efficient as Nate Thomas and Eli Cummings combined for 146 rushing yards and 7.7 yards per carry.

Villanova 14, Towson 13

Success Rate: Villanova (48%), Towson (32%)

This was one of the most interesting results of the weekend. Villanova escaped with a one-point win after Towson missed three field goals, but the Wildcats dominated this game according to success rate. The Tigers took advantage of two Villanova turnovers but struggled on third down and in the red zone. Towson converted on 29.4% of third-down attempts and failed to score on all three red zone attempts. Villanova's two turnovers prevented the Wildcats from pulling away in this game. The Wildcats also struggled to generate explosive plays in the passing game, which was their identity last season.

Mercer 10, Chattanooga 3

Success Rate: Mercer (40%), Chattanooga (28%)

Mercer won a crucial SoCon matchup over Chattanooga, as the Bears made an explosive Chattanooga offense one-dimensional. The Bears held the Mocs to 19 rushing yards on 20 attempts and 0-for-12 on third-down attempts. Mercer's offense failed to establish consistency but found success on the ground in critical moments. The Bears scored on both red zone opportunities and controlled the game, holding the ball for over 36 minutes. Dwayne McGee was a workhorse with 86 rushing yards on 24 carries.

Sacramento State 34, Nicholls 7

Success Rate: Sacramento State (47%), Nicholls (24%)

This was a dominant defensive performance by Sacramento State. The Hornets did not allow an offensive touchdown, posted 14 tackles for loss, and held the Colonels to only 2.8 yards per play. Nicholls had one of the best rushing attacks in the FCS last season but only produced 10 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Linebacker Will Leota led the Hornets with 10 total tackles, three tackles for loss, and two sacks.

Quick Hits:

• South Dakota State won an uneventful game against Augustana but failed to dominate an overmatched Division II opponent. However, an interesting trend has developed for All-American quarterback Mark Gronowski. Gronowski finished last season with five interceptions but has thrown four interceptions in the first three games, including two this weekend. It will be an intriguing development to watch moving forward.

• Western Carolina won a competitive road matchup against Elon. The Phoenix missed a field goal and turned the ball over twice in Western Carolina territory, including a 55-yard field block that was returned for a touchdown. Western Carolina finished the game with a success rate of 48%, while Elon was limited to a success rate of 37%.

More FCS Football News

Week 4 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
FCS Football Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 4 Ballot
FCS Football Recap: Week 3 Takeaways
Behind The Numbers: Week 2 FCS Football Review
Behind The Numbers: Week 1 FCS Football Review

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