Top 10 Potential FCS Over FBS Wins In 2024

Zachary McKinnell | Jun 30, 2024

Joe Ellis/Special to Clarion Ledger /

Only four FCS programs defeated FBS opponents last season, the lowest number since 2020. This was an outlier compared to the 12 FCS over FBS upsets in 2021 and the eight upsets in 2023. From 2009 to 2018, there were five or more FCS over FBS upsets each season, including a season-high 16 upsets in 2013.

Despite the low number of upsets last season, there are plenty of opportunities for FCS programs to earn statement wins over FBS opponents in 2024. There will be over 120 FCS vs. FBS games next season, including multiple matchups where an FCS program enters the game with a significant advantage.

Below are the Top 10 potential FCS over FBS upsets for the 2024 season.

10. Idaho at Wyoming (Sep. 7)

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Despite losing multiple offensive contributors to the NCAA transfer portal, the Vandals return plenty of talent next season. The Vandals return four starters on the offensive line and added former South Dakota running back Nate Thomas.

Idaho returns nine defensive starters, led by Freshman All-American defensive tackle Dallas Afalava. The Vandals landed three major contributors out of the transfer portal, including North Alabama defensive back KJ Trujillo and Northern Iowa defensive back Corry Thomas.

Idaho is searching for back-to-back FBS upsets after defeating Nevada in Week 2 last season. The Vandals will be an extremely tough matchup for the Cowboys led by new head coach Jay Sawvel.

9. South Dakota State at Oklahoma State (Aug. 31)

Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

South Dakota State can make a national statement with an upset against Oklahoma State as the Cowboys are fresh off an appearance in the Big-12 championship game.

The Jackrabbits enter the season on a 29-game winning streak and have won back-to-back FCS national titles. Quarterback Mark Gronowski returns after winning the Walter Payton Award, while the Jackrabbits also return multiple starters from the nation's No. 1 defense last season.

Oklahoma State projects as a Top-20 team in ESPN's preseason SP+ rankings and will be led by Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II. South Dakota State is talented enough to compete with the Cowboys and a win could be the first step for a historic three-peat for the Jackrabbits.

8. Central Arkansas at Arkansas State (Aug. 31)

Central Arkansas QB Will McElvain / Jaden Powell (UCA Athletics)

Central Arkansas enters 2024 with high expectations as the Bears return over 15 starters from last season. All-American defensive lineman David Walker and safety TaMauarion Wilson are expected to lead the Bears' defense.

Quarterback Will McElvain returns after an impressive season, recording 2,477 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and only five interceptions. The Bears also have one of the deepest running back rooms in the nation, led by All-American ShunDerrick Powell and former Freshman All-American Darius Hale.

Arkansas State finished last season 6-7 under head coach Butch Jones. Central Arkansas is searching for its first FBS win since 2019 when the Bears stunned Western Kentucky.

7. North Dakota State at Colorado (Aug. 29)

Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

North Dakota State has a chance to make headlines nationwide with an upset over Colorado. The Buffaloes struggled in Year 1 under Sanders, finishing 4-8 and losing seven of the final eight games of the season.

North Dakota State will be led by an experienced defense, which returns multiple starters from last season's semifinal team. All-American safety Cole Wisniewski led the nation in interceptions in 2023, while linebacker Logan Kopp also returns after an All-Conference season.

The Bison are 9-4 all-time against FBS opponents and have won six of the past seven games, including a 23-21 win over No. 13 Iowa in 2016. It would be Colorado's first loss to an FCS opponent since 2012.

6. Fordham at Bowling Green (Aug. 29)

Fordham QB CJ Montes / Fordham Athletics

The MAC has struggled against FCS competition, losing five games over the past three seasons. Fordham defeated Buffalo last season and lost to Ohio by only seven points in 2022.

Fordham is expected to have another explosive offense led by quarterback CJ Montes. Montes finished last season with 3,000 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and only one interception. The Rams also return multiple key contributors, including wide receivers Garrett Cody and Mekai Felton and running back Julius Loughridge.

Bowling Green finished last season 7-6, the first winning season for the Falcons since 2015. The Falcons are No. 110 in ESPN's preseason SP+ rankings.

5. Sacramento State at San Jose State (Aug. 29)

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Sacramento State has defeated FBS opponents in consecutive seasons, including an impressive win over Stanford in 2023. The Hornets stunned former head coach Troy Taylor as Sacramento State scored the game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes remaining.

Eight offensive starters return for the Hornets, including quarterback Kaiden Bennett. Bennett will have plenty of experience around him as the Hornets return four starting offensive linemen and wide receiver Jared Gipson.

San Jose State hired former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo this offseason. The Spartans finished last season 7-6, but rank No. 103 in ESPN's preseason SP+ rankings.

4. Lafayette at Buffalo (Aug. 29)

Lafayette RB Jamar Curtis / Lafayette Athletics

Buffalo has lost back-to-back games against FCS opponents. The Bulls have suffered upset losses to Fordham and Holy Cross, which opens the door for Lafayette to extend the FCS winning streak over the Bulls.

Lafayette won the first Patriot League championship since 2013 last season. The Leopards return plenty of talent, including All-American running back Jamar Curtis and safety Saiku White.

Buffalo ranks No. 130 in ESPN's preseason SP+ rankings after a disappointing 3-9 season. The Bulls named Pete Lembo as the new head coach this offseason, but Buffalo will be on upset alert in Lembo's debut.

3. Jackson State at Louisiana-Monroe (Aug. 29)

Joe Ellis/Special to Clarion Ledger /

Jackson State will have a chance to make history against the Warhawks. The Tigers are looking to become the first SWAC program to defeat an FBS program since Grambling State in 1985.

Quarterback JaCobian Morgan will lead a talented Jackson State offense that returns multiple starters along the offensive line. Running back Irv Mulligan and wide receiver Fabian McCray return after All-SWAC seasons for the Tigers.

Louisiana-Monroe ranks last (No. 134) among FBS programs in ESPN's preseason SP+ rankings. The Warhawks will enter next season with plenty of question marks as new head coach Bryant Vincent takes over the program.

2. UT Martin at Kennesaw State (Sep. 28)

UT Martin Athletics

Kennesaw State is expected to struggle throughout the first season at the FBS level. The Owls failed to defeat a Division I opponent last season and enter the 2024 season as one of the worst FBS programs in the nation.

UT Martin has won three consecutive conference championships and returns multiple key players on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Kinkead Dent returns for his second season and will have plenty of weapons, led by wide receivers DeVonte Tanksley and Trevonte Rucker.

Kennesaw State ranks No. 129 among all FBS programs in the ESPN preseason SP+ rankings. The Skyhawks are searching for their first FBS upset since 2012.

1. Montana State at New Mexico (Aug. 24)

Erin Woodiel / Argus Leader / USA TODAY

There are rare cases when FCS programs should be favored over FBS opponents and this is the perfect example. Montana State enters the season as one of the favorites to win the FCS National Championship, while New Mexico is one of the worst teams in the country.

Montana State will be led by Tommy Mellott, who has developed into one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation. The Bobcats also return eight defensive starters, led by All-American defensive end Brody Grebe.

New Mexico ranks No. 131 in ESPN's SP+ preseason rankings after finishing 4-8 in 2023. The Lobos have not finished above .500 since 2016 and will be led by new head coach Bronco Mendenhall.

Honorable Mentions: Eastern Washington at Nevada, Nicholls State at Louisiana Tech, Chattanooga at Georgia State, Southern Utah at UTEP, Morgan State at Ohio, Eastern Illinois at Northwestern, Southeastern Louisiana at Southern Miss