Behind The Numbers: Week 7 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Oct 16, 2024

North Alabama quarterback TJ Smith / Joseph Romans (UNA Athletics)

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 7 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 7?

North Alabama Athletics

North Alabama 47, Abilene Christian 30

Success Rate: North Alabama (48%), Abilene Christian (42%)

There was nothing lucky about North Alabama's upset win over Abilene Christian. The Lions averaged over 8.0 yards per play, led by a massive performance from quarterback TJ Smith. He took over the game with 335 total yards and six touchdowns. Jalen Fletcher averaged 12.3 yards per carry, rushing for 123 yards on only ten carries. Maverick McIvor finished the game with 275 passing yards but only averaged 5.7 yards per attempt.

ETSU 31, Samford 28

Success Rate: ETSU (36%), Samford (36%)

Despite identical success rates, ETSU got the upper hand with explosive plays in the passing game. Wide receiver AJ Johnson led the offense with seven receptions for 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. ETSU produced explosive plays on 10.5% of its plays, helping the Buccaneers overcome four turnovers. ETSU's front seven played a key role in this game, holding Samford to 13 rushing yards on 28 attempts. The Buccaneers recorded 16 tackles for loss and seven sacks, producing a tackle for loss on 24.6% of plays.

New Hampshire 17, Elon 10

Success Rate: New Hampshire (29%), Elon (26%)

If you are a fan of offensive football, this was not the game for you. New Hampshire only managed 151 total yards and 2.6 yards per play but found a way to win the game. A well-timed punt block before halftime became the difference this weekend, leading to a 10-yard touchdown pass from Seth Morgan to Logan Tomlinson. New Hampshire posted 11 tackles for loss, while Elon's defense generated 12 tackles for loss. Defensive end Josiah Silver finished the game with five tackles for loss and four sacks.

Alcorn State 17, Grambling State 15

Success Rate: Alcorn (41%), Grambling (39%)

Alcorn State moved to 3-0 in conference play with a massive win over Grambling State. The Braves produced two explosive touchdowns, which became the difference in this game. Xzavier Vaughn connected with Tyran Warren for a 73-yard touchdown, while Jacorian Sewell opened the game with a 63-yard touchdown run. The Braves excelled in generating negative plays, finishing the game with a 15% tackle-for-loss rate. Defensive end Malachi Bailey led the Braves with three tackles for loss and two sacks.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Central Arkansas 34, West Georgia 33

Success Rate: Central Arkansas (27%), West Georgia (39%)

This was a shockingly poor offensive performance for Central Arkansas. The Bears have averaged over 50% success rate this season but only managed 26% this weekend. Central Arkansas had four consecutive 3-and-outs and five punts in the second half as West Georgia mounted a comeback. West Georgia generated 558 total yards compared to Central Arkansas' 363, but the Wolves fell short after failing to convert a two-point conversion to end the game.

Merrimack 32, Morgan State 24

Success Rate: Merrimack (30%), Morgan State (44%)

Merrimack only ran 37 plays, generating 172 total yards, but still scored 32 points. Morgan State nearly doubled Merrimack's total yardage and had zero turnovers but still found a way to lose this game. The difference this weekend was special teams. The Bears allowed a kick return touchdown, had a field goal blocked, allowed another 67-yard kick return, and gave Merrimack a short field on a 17-yard punt. This was a brutal loss for Morgan State ahead of conference play.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 7?

Brian Morse (Montana State Athletics)

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

South Dakota State 63, Youngstown State 13

Success Rate: South Dakota State (69%), Youngstown State (40%)

South Dakota State's offense found their rhythm this weekend, producing over 400 rushing yards and 16.2 yards per carry. The Jackrabbits produced an explosive play on 44% of rushing attempts, led by backup quarterback Chase Mason with 161 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only five carries. The defense managed a tackle-for-loss rate of 12.5%, led by Chase Van Tol, with two tackles for loss.

Montana State 38, Idaho 7

Success Rate: Montana State (68%), Idaho (26%)

The Bobcats dominated this game from the kickoff. Idaho had one of the best run defenses in the nation, allowing 3.0 yards per carry or less in three games, including Oregon. Montana State rushed for 360 yards and averaged over 6.7 yards per carry. It all started with quarterback Tommy Mellott, who led the Bobcats with 140 rushing yards on 11 carries. Montana State's defense held Idaho to only 4.5 yards per play, the lowest against an FCS opponent this season. It was an all-around dominant win for the Bobcats.

Tarleton State 42, Utah Tech 0

Success Rate: Tarleton (74%), Utah Tech (21%)

This was the weekend's most dominant net success rate as the Texans could have made this game much worse than the final score indicated. Tarleton State built a 42-0 halftime lead before benching their starters in the second half. Five of Tarleton State's first seven plays were explosive gains, leading to 14 points. Running back Kayvon Britten led the team with 135 rushing yards on eight carries, while wide receiver Darius Cooper posted 141 receiving yards. Quarterback Victor Gabalis completed ten passes but recorded over 200 passing yards.

More FCS Football News

FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 15 (Week 8)
FCS Football Recap: Week 7 Takeaways
FCS Football Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 8 Ballot
Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Midseason Review

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