Week 1 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | Aug 29, 2024

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

We preview and make our official predictions for the top FCS games on the Week 1 slate right here. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 4-1
2022-23 Record: 207-75

No. 25 Youngstown State at No. 6 Villanova

Kickoff: 5 p.m. CT (FloSports)

The first Top 25 FCS matchup of the season will kick off on Thursday. Youngstown State aims to avenge last season's FCS Playoff loss to Villanova. The Wildcats eliminated the Penguins, 45-28, in the second round of the FCS Playoffs in 2023.

Youngstown State has massive questions defensively after losing 12 of its top 13 tacklers from last season. Cornerback Jaylen Castleberry returns after starting the final seven games of 2023, while Dawan Martin and Hunter Allen bring some experience to the defensive end position. Former Northern Colorado defensive tackle Joe Brown will anchor the interior of the defense after playing in 18 career games for the Bears.

Villanova returns multiple key starters from last season's offense, which ranked No. 5 nationally in yards per play. Quarterback Connor Watkins is a dynamic weapon, posting 2,681 passing yards, 378 rushing yards, and 30 total touchdowns last season. The Wildcats also return four players with starting experience on the offensive line, headlined by All-CAA selection Temi Ajirotutu.

With a new starting quarterback, expect Youngstown State to lean on its rushing attack. Tyshon King earned MVFC All-Newcomer honors last season after rushing for 1,011 yards and nine touchdowns. The Penguins could take advantage of a revamped defensive line but will face the challenge of stopping one of the best linebacker cores in the FCS. All-American cornerback Isas Waxter, the highest-graded cornerback in the FCS in 2023, will lead the secondary.

Youngstown State has the talent for another run to the postseason but has too many question marks to be confident in an upset over one of the most talented teams at the FCS level. Watkins will be the x-factor in this game, and Villanova's defense will make enough plays to earn a huge ranked win for their postseason resume.

Prediction: Villanova (31-21)

South Carolina State at Florida A&M (1-0)

Kickoff: 5 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Florida A&M escaped with a 24-23 win over Norfolk State in Week 0. The Rattlers will put their 20-game home winning streak on the line as South Carolina State begins the Chennis Berry era on Saturday night.

Quarterback Daniel Richardson was spectacular in his first start for the Rattlers, earning MEAC/SWAC Challenge MVP honors. After a shaky first half, Richardson finished the game with 286 passing yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver Jamari Gassett also proved to be a matchup nightmare, posting eight receptions for 110 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

The biggest concern was Florida A&M's run defense, which allowed 227 rushing yards. South Carolina State will be confident in its ability to run the football after leading the MEAC in rushing offense last season. The Bulldogs also return one of the best offensive lines in HBCU football, led by All-American guard Nick Taiste.

Quarterback Eric Phoenix will also make his first start for the Bulldogs after spending one season at Murray State. He helped lead Benedict to back-to-back SIAC titles and earned All-Conference honors in 2022.

Defensively, the Bulldogs have question marks on the defensive line after losing multiple starters. Linebacker Aaron Smith will anchor the defense, but South Carolina State will need someone to emerge as a true threat off the edge this weekend. Florida A&M presents a challenge due to the Rattlers' ability to run the football, which will be a crucial factor to watch in this matchup.

The hype surrounding Chennis Berry's arrival in Orangeburg is justified, but the Bulldogs are a year away from being contenders. I expect Florida A&M to be able to run the football and Richardson will take advantage of a South Carolina State defense that lacks experience at key positions.

Prediction: Florida A&M (34-17)

Holy Cross at Rhode Island

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (FloSports)

It will be a new era at Holy Cross as Dan Curran replaces Bob Chesney as the Crusaders' head coach. Rhode Island is searching for its first FCS Playoff appearance since 1985 after adding some solid players from the transfer portal.

The most significant question mark will be the quarterback play for each team after both programs lost longtime starters. Joe Pesansky led Holy Cross to wins over Fordham and Lehigh last season, passing for 499 yards and five touchdowns. Devin Farrell and Hunter Helms are both expected to see playing time for Rhode Island this weekend. Farrell made six appearances last season, while Helms played nine games at Clemson over the past three seasons.

Holy Cross will be led by All-American running back Jordan Fuller, who holds the career record for rushing touchdowns (40). The Crusaders will need new faces to emerge at wide receiver but could rely on two-time All-Conference selection Justin Shorter to lead the receiving core. The defense only returns five starters, but expect a breakout season from Freshman All-American William Robinson and linebacker Frankie Monte.

Rhode Island added former FCS All-American Malik Grant, who joined Gabe Sloat in the backfield this offseason. Grant recorded over 3,000 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns for the Pioneers. Freshman All-American Marquis Buchanan looks like a potential superstar after posting 638 receiving yards last season. Linebacker A.J. Pena is a name to watch after leading the Rams with 15.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks. The addition of Carson Primrose solidified the defensive line, which also features Westley Neal Jr.

Both teams have some question marks entering this game, but Rhode Island's defense will be the difference. Pena and Westley Jr. should be able to take advantage of a revamped Holy Cross offensive line, while Grant and Sloat combine for an effective 1-2 punch offensively.

Prediction: Rhode Island (28-24)

Missouri State at No. 3 Montana

Kickoff: 8 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

After limping through out-of-conference play last season, Montana has a chance to make a statement to start the season. Missouri State returns an experienced team with over 20 returning starters and multiple FBS additions. The Bears will also be above the 63-scholarship limit due to their transition to the FBS level.

The Grizzlies are expected to enter this season with a two-quarterback system. Keali'i Ah Yat and Logan Fife were listed as co-starters ahead of this weekend's game. Ah Yat saw limited action last season, passing for 271 yards and one touchdown. Fife is an experienced transfer, seeing action in 21 career games at Fresno State.

Regardless of the starting quarterback, the Grizzlies have one of the deepest wide receiver cores in the nation. Junior Bergen, Keelan White, and Aaron Fontes combined for over 2,000 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in 2023. Eli Gillman leads the rushing attack after winning the Jerry Rice Award last season.

Defensively, the Grizzlies have question marks on the defensive line but added some experienced pieces through the transfer portal. Patrick Hayden, Andres Lehrmann, and Vai Kaho earned starting spots after joining the program this offseason. Kaho has superstar potential and played in over 41 career games before joining the Grizzlies. Cornerback Trevin Gradney also returns after earning FCS All-American honors last season.

Missouri State is talented enough to make things interesting if Montana struggles early, but the Grizzlies should win this game comfortably. The Grizzlies have too many weapons and I expect a big game from Montana's revamped defense on Saturday night.

Prediction: Montana (24-10)

North Carolina Central at Alabama State

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN)

This is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend, as the preseason favorites from the SWAC and MEAC face off in the Orange Blossom Classic.

After spending three seasons at Texas Southern, quarterback Andrew Body will make his Alabama State debut. Body recorded 2,839 passing yards and 15 touchdowns for the Tigers, earning second-team All-SWAC honors. He also set the program's single-season record for total offense in 2021.

North Carolina Central will have a new quarterback for the first time since 2018 as Walker Harris steps into the QB1 role. Harris started one game last season, recording 263 passing yards and five touchdowns against Mississippi Valley State. Harris is surrounded by plenty of experience, including Joaquin Davis, Quentin McCall, and running back J'Mari Taylor.

Alabama State's defense has been the identity of this program under head coach Eddie Robinson Jr. Defensive end Treqwan Thomas is a player to watch after posting 12.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks last season. Rico Dozier joins linebacker DeMarkus Cunningham to form one of the most talented linebacker cores in the SWAC.

North Carolina Central will have new faces in the secondary, but safety Kole Jones will remain a staple of this defense. Defensive tackles Jaden Taylor and Quantez Mansfield combined for 75 total tackles, 15 tackles for loss, and seven sacks in 2023. Cornerback will be the biggest question mark for the Eagles, which could present some opportunities for Body and Alabama State's wide receivers.

This is one of the most challenging games to predict due to the unknowns for each team. I'm going to put my trust in the continuity between offensive coordinator Matt Leone and Walker Harris, but both quarterbacks should have solid performances. The Eagles find a way to escape with a close one-score win in Miami.

Prediction: North Carolina Central (20-16)

Potential FCS Over FBS Upsets:

No. 17 Lafayette at Buffalo

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

The Patriot League has continued to dominate the MAC, winning five games over the past three seasons. Buffalo has lost back-to-back games to Patriot League opponents and will face the defending champions on Thursday night.

Lafayette won the first conference title since 2013 last season. The Leopards return 18 starters from last season's squad. All-American running back Jamar Curtis will lead the offensive attack after rushing for 1,460 yards and 15 touchdowns. All-American safety Saiku White also returns, headlining a secondary that returns all four starters. Freshman All-American Jaylon Joseph is a player to watch on the defensive line after being named the Patriot League Rookie of the Year.

Buffalo finished 3-9 last season and ranks among the worst FBS programs ahead of the 2024 college football season. The Bulls will be led by new head coach Pete Lembo, who served as the associate head coach at South Carolina for the past three seasons.

Jackson State at UL Monroe

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Jackson State enters Thursday night's matchup looking to make history. The Tigers have never defeated an FBS opponent, while the SWAC has not won an FBS matchup since 1985. There may not be a better chance to end that streak than a matchup against the lowest-ranked FBS program in the nation.

Louisiana-Monroe entered the season ranked No. 134 in ESPN's SP+ rankings. The Warhawks are entering a new era under head coach Bryant Vincent, who served as the offensive coordinator at New Mexico in 2023. The Warhawks only have three winning seasons at the FBS level, and there are plenty of question marks entering this upcoming season.

Jackson State was successful in the first season under head coach T.C. Taylor, finishing 7-4 last season. Quarterback Jacobian Morgan returns after starting the final four games of the 2023 season. He recorded 842 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, one interception, and six rushing touchdowns. The Tigers return eight defensive starters and signed some instant-impact transfers, headlined by defensive backs Robert McDaniel and Day Day Bright.

Other Week 1 FCS Predictions:

No. 4 Montana State 42, Utah Tech 10
No. 15 William & Mary 30, VMI 13
Eastern Washington 38, Monmouth 28
Samford 42, West Georgia 20
Morgan State 20, Hampton 13
Tennessee State 38, Mississippi Valley State 13
No. 16 UAlbany 38, Long Island 14
No. 14 Incarnate Word 59, Northern Colorado 14
Prairie View A&M 34, Texas Southern 10

More FCS Football News

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Week 1 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
Behind The Numbers: Week 0 FCS Football Review
Top 10 FCS Players To Watch In Week 0
2024 FCS Football Central Preseason All-American Team

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