Florida vs. Arkansas: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More

Everything you need to know before the Florida Gators attempt to avoid a 0-3 start to SEC play against the visiting Arkansas Razorbacks.

Photo: Florida head coach Todd Golden; Credit: Zach Goodall 

Florida will strive to flush away the rough loss it endured in its most recent outing, at Ole Miss on Wednesday, at home against Arkansas on Saturday. 

Each team is looking for its first win of the Southeastern Conference slate and aiming to avoid a troubling 0-3 start in league play, and will do so in front of a sold-out Stephen C. O'Connell Center. 

You can find everything you need to know before tip-off below, including an in-depth rundown of the matchup and game prediction. 

Florida Gators (10-5, 0-2 SEC) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-6, 0-2 SEC)

Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, Fla.

When: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4 p.m. ET 

Watch: ESPN | fuboTV (start your free trial)

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com

Odds: The Gators are 7.5-point favorites over the Razorbacks on Saturday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 163.5 points.

Series history: Florida leads Arkansas 26-15 in the all-time series. In their most recent meeting on Feb. 18, 2023, the Gators were steamrolled by the Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Ark., 84-65.

Important stories

• Column: Gators' Poor Defensive Effort Catalyzes Ugly Road Loss to Rebels
• Three Takeaways from Florida Hoops' Narrow Loss to Kentucky
• Florida Fails to Topple No. 6 Kentucky in SEC Opener, 87-85
• Column: Florida Guard Zyon Pullin Hitting Stride at the Perfect Time
• Florida Steamrolls Quinnipiac in Non-Conference Finale, 97-72
• Florida Gators Trounce Grambling State Tigers, 96-57
• Golden: Guard Zyon Pullin Will' Raise the Level' of Gators Squad
• Denzel Aberdeen a 'Great Example' for Gators' Program Under Todd Golden
• Exclusive: Golden's Gators Striving for 'Next Step' With Reconstructed Roster

The rundown

Two teams without wins in the Southeastern Conference will compete to add their first tally to the 'W' column on Saturday evening in Gainesville.

Florida's seen opposite ends of the losing spectrum. Win close against a contender at home. Lose big to a rebuilding program on the road.

Arkansas, meanwhile, endured their worst home loss in program history at the hands of Auburn to open league play, followed by a ten-point loss to Georgia in Athens.

As a result, this game means a lot. A chance to avoid a 0-3 start is on the horizon.

The Razorbacks are led by junior guard Tramon Mark, who's averaging 17 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Mark, a three-level scorer with a nuanced midrange pull-up jumper game, has flashed his worth as a dynamic guard talent in the SEC since transferring from Houston to Fayetteville this season.

He's been the sole hand in keeping the nation's No. 76 most efficient offense afloat throughout the year. Fellow guard Khalif Battle and forward Trevon Brazile have complemented his efforts. At their peak, the trio was crucial in upsetting No. 7 Duke, 80-75, in the ACC/SEC Challenge.

But they haven't played to that level all season. 

Despite Mark's scoring prowess, the Hogs offense has struggled throughout the campaign, mainly due to the inconsistent backcourt play.

The unit's poor passing, bad decisions, and propensity to leave feet when working in the pick-and-roll game at the top of the key have proved detrimental to offensive efficiency and sustainability. Arkansas accordingly ranks No. 272 in assist-to-turnover ratio in the country, averaging more turnovers (12.5) than assists (11.9) per outing.

And while the Gators defense has notably struggled throughout the year — including the catastrophic breakdown against the Rebels — on-ball pressure in isolation and the ability to jump passing lanes haven't been the most glaring issues.

Arkansas presents opportunities to take advantage through those mediums. 

However, while Eric Musselman's squad has failed to replicate its usual offensive success so far in the 2023-24 season, the unit does pose an intriguing threat at the free throw line, as 24% of the team's point production this year comes from the charity stripe.

They draw fouls at an uber-effective clip — ranking No. 6 with just over 26 attempts per game — to create additional scoring opportunities outside of live action. They knock down 71.3% of the attempts from the line.

On the other end of the floor, the Razorbacks have been gashed in the first 15 games, posing the third-worst defensive efficiency rating (No. 12 SEC, No. 95 overall) in the SEC through 15 games per Kenpom.

They're allowing opponents to score at a high volume. And it's happening quickly, as Arkansas ranks No. 22 in average possession length defensively.

Given the fast-paced style Florida intends to operate in each contest, the Razorbacks' weakness in the area could elevate the Gators' strength, allowing UF to continue producing fruitfully on the offensive end.

But, like Ole Miss, Arkansas' length inside could prove to be an issue. The Hogs account for 6.5 blocks per game, good for the fourth-best mark in college basketball. After enduring 16 swats from the Rebels, the Gators are privy to the unforgiving nature of having opportunities taken away at the rim.

They'll aim to improve in that area on Saturday.

"We have to do a better job of playing with poise in the paint," head coach Todd Golden said on Wednesday when asked about the keys to the game against Arkansas. 

"We were trying to fight but not necessarily in the most intelligent way in that Ole Miss game in terms of trying to get downhill and challenging their rim protectors at the rim. We were being a little stubborn about that. We have to do a better job playing off two feet and making good decisions and not allowing them to turn our offense into offense for them in terms of taking quick shots or turnovers."

The matchup is critical for both squads as each attempts to get on track following slow starts to league play.

Brandon's Prediction (7-3): Florida 83, Arkansas 72

On a statistical scale, Florida is the better team in this contest, offensively and defensively.

However, after watching the Gators crumble against Ole Miss — who they were also considered better than by the season-long numbers — picking them now is more complicated. 

But, given the magnitude of this contest on their home court, I think Florida produces. It rebounds.

The home-court advantage they pose will be a significant factor in this matchup, as the crowd can manufacture some of the juice Florida notably lacked on the road in Oxford. 

I think UF plays to its strengths, taking advantage of Arkansas' propensity to allow a multitude of buckets on short possessions defensively. 

On the other end, Florida anchors down, executing within their assignments on defense to make the needed improvements that true freshman forward Alex Condon stressed following the team's 18-point loss on Wednesday. Poor possessions from a Razorbacks team susceptible to making bad decisions with the basketball throughout the 2023-24 campaign.

Florida jumps out to a comfortable lead and maintains it throughout. 

Thus, the Gators bounce back in a big way on Saturday, rolling over the fluttering Hogs en route to a double-digit, 83-72 victory.

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