Florida vs. Auburn: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More

Everything you need to know before the Gators host the No. 12 Auburn Tigers on Saturday afternoon.

Brandon Carroll | Feb 10, 2024

Florida vs. Auburn: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More /

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Florida Gators

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- For the third consecutive contest, Florida has the opportunity to attain a Quad-I victory on Saturday as it takes on the Auburn Tigers at home

The Gators split the first two games in the three-game series of high-caliber opponents, with an upset win at then-No. 10 Kentucky on Jan. 31 before falling to Texas A&M on Feb. 3.

Now, it's a rubber match of sorts for Florida.

UF head coach Todd Golden aims to knock off one of his mentors, Bruce Pearl, to add another highlight win to the Gators' resume for March.

You can find everything you need to know before tip-off below, including an in-depth rundown of Florida's opponent, game prediction and more.

Florida Gators (15-7, 5-4 SEC) vs. Auburn Tigers (19-4, 8-2 SEC)

Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, Fla.

When: Saturday, Feb. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET

Watch: SEC Network | fuboTV (start your free trial)

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com | The Varsity Network App | SiriusXM 390 & SXM App

Odds: The Gators are 1.5-point underdogs to the Tigers on Saturday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 158.5 points.

Series history: Florida trails Auburn 82-91 in the all-time series. In the most recent meeting on Dec. 28, 2022, the Tigers fended off the Gators in Todd Golden's first SEC contest as head coach at UF, 61-58.

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The rundown

Auburn is, statistically, the most complete team in college basketball through the three quarters of the regular season.

The Tigers are the only team in the country in the top ten in both adjusted offensive efficiency (No. 10) and adjusted defensive efficiency (No. 3), per KenPom, and sit at No. 4 overall in adjusted efficiency margin. The impressive marks are characteristics of legitimate national title contenders over the past two decades.

"I think they're playing like the best team in our league right now," Golden told media during his pregame press conference on Friday. "And I don't want to say it's not close, but I think they've kind of separated themselves as the top team right now.

"I think Auburn — I think they're 10th offensively, and I think they're third defensively on KenPom — they definitely have the potential to make a deep, deep run this year."

As a result, the Tigers pose a considerable challenge for a Gators squad needing another resume-bolstering Quad-I victory as they trek to Gainesville on Saturday.

Auburn's impressive campaign has been led by a stingy defensive unit, ranking No. 2 in effective field goal percentage allowed, No. 1 in two-point defense, No. 20 in three-point defense and No. 2 in block percentage. Accordingly, they're one of the toughest teams to score against consistently, slotted at No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency on the year.

Veteran guard KD Johnson sets the tone for the Tigers' defense as a terrific on-ball defender with active hands, nimble feet and a palpable energy that trickles down from him to his teammates.

On Wednesday, Johnson was assigned to Alabama's Mark Sears, a player firmly in the conversation for SEC Player of the Year. Although Sears still posted 25 points, 12 came from the free throw line and his live-play impact was relatively limited in Auburn's blowout win over the Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl of basketball.

Now, for the second game in a row, Johnson will be expected to take on another one of the SEC's most efficient producers in Florida's Zyon Pullin. The matchup on that end of the floor will be a key factor in deciding the contest's outcome.

Pullin's impact on the game — as he averages 15.4 points and 5.1 assists per game — will be immense for the Gators chances, but even more so than usual given Johnson's uber-aggressive man-to-man style.

Junior forward Johni Broome anchors Auburn's stout two-point defense from inside, posting a team-leading 8.7 boards and 2.4 blocks per showing on average as an athletic rim protector.

His showings on the other end of the floor are equally impressive, a microcosm of the team.

Emerging as one of college basketball's shining stars this season, Broome has spearheaded the group's offensive advances, turning in 16 points on 55% from the field and two assists per game. His rim-running ability has proven vital to his success, as well as his expanded range to knock down open three-point looks on occasion.

AU leans on the reliable veteran big as a result.

He's complemented by his fellow frontcourt member, Jaylin Williams.

Williams serves as one of the most efficient offensive players in the country, averaging 13 points per game while shooting 40% from beyond the arc, 50% from the field and 80% from the charity stripe.

While the Auburn offense primarily works through its two stretch forwards, the Tigers have found immense success sharing the basketball. They rank No. 10 in assists per game at 18.1, with sophomore guard Tre Donaldson leading the facilitation efforts with 3.5 assists per outing.

To nitpick, the Tigers' most notable lapse comes on the offensive end in their ability to shoot from beyond the arc, ranking No. 199 in three-point percentage (33.3%) on the year as a team. Florida, on the other hand, sits at No. 178 (33.7%), offering a slight advantage for the unit heading into the matchup.

The Gators, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage, also present a considerable advantage in creating second-chance points against a below-average defensive rebounding team in Auburn.

Florida will have to win both facets of the game to notch an essential upset win over the visiting side on Saturday.

Brandon's Prediction (12-5): Florida 81, Auburn 77

The Gators can contend with any team in the country when performing at its potential.

That includes on Saturday against the visiting Auburn Tigers.

Following a week off, UF enters the matchup fresh with ample time to prepare for one of the nation's top units. AU, conversely, is fresh off an emotional victory over arch-rival Alabama, setting up the possibility for a letdown in Gainesville.

Florida's scoring attack has proven it can continue to find success even against talented defenses. And while it hasn’t faced a team the caliber of Auburn statistically, I think it will produce at a rate conducive to pulling off an upset win in front of the sold-out home crowd.

The Gators use a dominant presence on the offensive glass to elicit consistent offense and knock down eight or more threes to seal their second Quad I win of the 2023-24 campaign.

Florida knocks off Auburn, 81-77.

Golden bests Pearl in the second chapter of a developing rivalry to pull even with his mentor with the win.

Stay tuned to All Gators for continuous coverage of Florida Gators football, basketball and recruiting. Follow along on social media at @AllGatorsOnFN on Twitter and All Gators on FanNation-Sports Illustrated on Facebook.

Published Feb 10, 2024

BRANDON CARROLL

Brandon Carroll is a recent graduate of the University of Florida. He serves as the lead reporter for the Florida Gators FanNation-Sports Illustrated website, covering football, basketball and recruiting. When he isn't hard at work, he enjoys listening to music, playing flag football and basketball, spending time with his friends and family, and watching an array of television shows. Follow him on Twitter @itsbcarroll.