Florida vs. Georgia: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More

Everything you need to know before the Florida Gators tip-off against the Georgia Bulldogs at home on Saturday.

Photo: Florida head coach Todd Golden; Credit: Zach Goodall 

Gators vs. Bulldogs, round two, is on the horizon for Florida this week.

Following an uber-important win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs at home on Wednesday, UF will host former head coach Mike White and the Georgia Bulldogs on Billy Donovan Court for midafternoon SEC hoops on Saturday. 

It's a crucial matchup for both squads as they hope to receive an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament field when March arrives.

You can find everything you need to know before tip-off below, including an in-depth rundown of Florida’s opponent, game prediction and more. 

Florida Gators (13-6, 2-3 SEC) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (14-5, 4-2 SEC)

Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, Fla.

When: Saturday, Jan. 27 at noon ET

Watch: ESPN2 | fuboTV (start your free trial)

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com | SiriusXM 381 & SXM App

Odds: The Gators are 7.5-point favorites over the Bulldogs on Saturday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 161.5 points. 

Series history: Florida is 122-103 in the all-time series against Georgia. In the most recent meeting between the longtime SEC foes, the Gators bested the Bulldogs in Athens, 77-67. 

Important stories

• Florida Fends Off Mississippi State's Late Comeback Efforts, Post 79-70 Win
• Florida Gators Down Missouri Tigers in Columbia, 79-67
• Gators Torched by Dalton Knecht, Fall to Vols 85-66
• Three Takeaways From Gators' 90-68 Drubbing of Razorbacks
• Florida Bounces Back With Convincing Win Over Arkansas, 90-68
• Column: Gators' Poor Defensive Effort Catalyzes Ugly Road Loss to Rebels
• Three Takeaways from Florida Hoops' Narrow Loss to Kentucky
• Florida Fails to Topple No. 6 Kentucky in SEC Opener, 87-85
• Column: Florida Guard Zyon Pullin Hitting Stride at the Perfect Time
• Florida Steamrolls Quinnipiac in Non-Conference Finale, 97-72
• Florida Gators Trounce Grambling State Tigers, 96-57
• Golden: Guard Zyon Pullin Will' Raise the Level' of Gators Squad
• Denzel Aberdeen a 'Great Example' for Gators' Program Under Todd Golden
• Exclusive: Golden's Gators Striving for 'Next Step' With Reconstructed Roster

The rundown

Georgia is realizing more success to begin the 2023-24 season than the program has in recent memory.

The Bulldogs' defensively oriented system has resulted in an uptick in favorable results, ranked No. 49 in adjusted efficiency on that end through 19 contests.

It's a fundamentally sound unit — primarily operating in man-to-man — and is predicated on the ability to play well-connected with consistent rotation, effectively communicate and defend without fouling. They don't take many risks in attempts to generate turnovers but rank in the top 100 in steal percentage due to their pesky nature on-ball.

UGA will likely throw different looks at the top-20 UF offense, disguising man and zone sets in an attempt to confuse the well-versed Gators attack into extended scoring lulls.

But, instead of slowing the game down as White-coached teams have in years past, the Dawgs aim to turn their disciplined defensive efforts into opportunistic points on the other end through transition.

Offensively, the 91st-rated Bulldogs, efficiency-wise, demonstrate a similar style to the one the Gators deployed during White's seven years at the helm of the UF program.

The unit takes care of the basketball (11.5 turnovers per game) but struggles to create second-chance opportunities due to their tendency to play small ball — ranking No. 224 in offensive rebounding percentage per Kenpom — and are largely dependent on their perimeter shooting.

They utilize a mixture of dribble drive sets and off-ball down-screen actions to create open outside looks for shooters.

While Florida has struggled to defend the three at times throughout the Golden era in Gainesville, including earlier this campaign, the unit has seemingly turned a corner in that regard of late.

“We’re definitely more connected on the defensive end now than we were two, three weeks ago," the Gators head coach said following his team's 79-70 win over Mississippi State on Wednesday. "I didn’t do a good enough job early in the year on emphasizing that end. We really wanted to focus on getting out and playing fast and scoring a lot, which is fun, but at the end of the day, you’ve got to get stops to win games.

"I think Georgia is going to be a really big challenge on that end for us because of the way they play, they spread you out a little bit they’ve got shooting at the 4, which is always unique with Tyrese and our bigs guarding that, so we’re going to have to do that again in Saturday if we want to make sure we have a big time week.”

UF posts the SEC’s second-best mark in three-point percentage allowed through six conference games.

Forcing the Bulldogs to win inside the three-point line has proven to be successful for the five opponents who have conquered the squad, given their standing at No. 250 — No. 13 SEC — in two-point field goal percentage this season.

But doing so is easier said than done, especially against a lineup built to play away from the basket. 

Much like White's scheme at Florida, the Georgia attack includes a guard-centric approach anchored by taller, dynamic guards serving along the wing in roles at the three and four.

Standing at 6-foot-8, 215 pounds, Jabri Abdur-Rahim — an uber-productive sharpshooter with the quick trigger needed to support UGA's offense as a spot-up option — leads the Bulldogs' offensive effort from his stretch forward spot.  

Abdur-Rahim averages 13.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from deep and 38.2% from the floor on the year and is just two games removed from a 34-point outing in which he knocked down seven triples on the road at Kentucky. His style reflects the unique percentages, with 88% of his production coming from beyond the arc or at the free-throw line through 19 contests in 2023-24. 

The impressive shooting presence at the four can hurt the Gators, given their traditional frontcourt lineup with Tyrese Samuel controlling the majority of time at the four while Micah Handlogten and Alex Condon have split time near-evenly at the five in SEC play.

He's one of just three Bulldogs to post double-digit points per game, as he's complemented by guards Noah Thomasson (12.1 points) and Silas Demary Jr. (10.2 points).

Justin Hill serves as the unit's leading facilitator (3.4 assists) with seven-foot center Russel Tchewa spearheading their efforts on the boards (6.6 rebounds).

The Bulldogs bench also supplements the scoring attack considerably, accounting for nearly 30 points per game. The mark is good for 21st-best out of 362 teams in college basketball.

Brandon’s Prediction (11-3): Florida 81, Georgia 73

Prior to Florida’s bout with Mississippi State on Wednesday, I highlighted the reoccurring attribute of foes the Gators have struggled to topple this season.

Five of the six losses have come to offensively dominant teams rated in the top 50 in offensive efficiency. UF’s lone loss to a squad not fitting that criteria, in game two against Virginia, came without the presence of its rather indispensable guard Zyon Pullin.

The Bulldogs, in both instances, don’t fit the criteria.

Chris Jans’ and Mike White’s teams are defensive-oriented. Florida has found ways to overcome the challenges those types of teams present this season.

And I think it’s positioned to do so again on Saturday.

While Georgia’s defensive performance on the year as a whole has been stout, the unit has realized a downtick since league play commenced in January.

It’s allowed teams to find and connect on open looks at a considerably higher rate than its year-long averages would suggest. It ranks third-to-last in the league in both two and three-point field goal percentage allowed.

The metric is concerning for the Dawgs' long-term success in conference play, as they’ve seemingly struggled to halt opposing attacks since the uptick in competition.

The Gators, meanwhile, have continued to produce promisingly scoring the basketball behind a dynamic, fast-paced offensive effort. They moved up to No. 18 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, following the win over a Mississippi State team predicated on winning through its defense.

As a result, I predict Florida will continue defending its home court well in front of another sold-out crowd, downing the Dawgs 81-73 to record a resume-boosting win against an evenly-matched opponent.

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