Florida vs. LSU: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More

Everything you need to know before the Florida Gators take on the LSU Tigers in Gainesville on Tuesday night.

Photo: Gators guards Will Richard and Riley Kugel; Credit: Zach Goodall

A quick turnaround from a win over No. 12 Auburn has arrived as the Florida Gators are set to take on the visiting LSU Tigers inside the Stephen C. O'Connell Center on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET.

Florida's aiming to avoid a letdown following their second Quad I win of the season — and maintain a perfect record against non-Q1 opponents. However, despite its standing in the bottom half of the league, LSU has proved it won't roll over this season.

You can find everything you need to know before tip-off below, including an in-depth rundown of Florida's opponent, game prediction and more.

Florida Gators (16-7, 6-4 SEC) vs. LSU Tigers (12-11, 4-6 SEC)

Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, Fla.

When: Tuesday, Feb. 13 at 8 p.m. ET

Watch: SEC Network | fuboTV (start your free trial)

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com | The Varsity Network App

Odds: The Gators are 10.5-point favorites over the Tigers on Tuesday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 160.5 points.

Series history: Florida trails LSU 52-66 in the all-time series. In their most recent meeting, the Gators capped off the 2022-23 campaign by besting the Tigers 79-67 in Gainesville on March 4, 2023.

Important stories

• Gators in 'Great Spot' for March Madness Bid
• What Todd Golden Said After Florida's 81-65 Upset of No. 12 Auburn
• Gators Topple No. 12 Tigers in Dominant Fashion, 81-65
• Todd Golden "Very Excited" for Gators' Bout with Bruce Pearl, No. 12 Tigers
• Gators Climb in ESPN's Bracketology Projections Following First Q1 Win
• Florida Tripped Up by Texas A&M in College Station, 67-66
• Social Media Reacts to Florida's Upset of No. 10 Kentucky
• Walter Clayton Jr. Forces OT, Uplifts Florida to Quad-I Win vs. Kentucky
• Gators Outlast Pesky Dawgs in Overtime Thriller, 102-98
• Florida Fends Off Mississippi State's Late Comeback Efforts, Post 79-70 Win
• Florida Gators Down Missouri Tigers in Columbia, 79-67
• Column: Florida Guard Zyon Pullin Hitting Stride at the Perfect Time
• Golden: Guard Zyon Pullin Will' Raise the Level' of Gators Squad
• Denzel Aberdeen a 'Great Example' for Gators' Program Under Todd Golden
• Exclusive: Golden's Gators Striving for 'Next Step' With Reconstructed Roster

The rundown

The Tigers present a relatively balanced squad in terms of KenPom metrics, ranking No. 90 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 86 in adjusted defensive efficiency to sit at No. 87 overall.

However, the production on tape tells a slightly different story.

LSU is geared toward its offense. Lately, skilled seven-foot forward Will Baker has spearheaded the group's scoring attack, which ranks 82nd in points per game with 77.7 on average.

Turning in 12.4 points on 53.6% shooting from the floor — and a respectable 35% mark from beyond the arc — Baker presents an uber-effective scoring option for the Tigers to lean on. He's found success in the paint and as a midrange shooter, offering a viable post-up option with the ability to make a consistent impact off the dribble.

In his latest three contests, the Texas native has seemingly reached his full form, producing games of 24, 16 and 25 points against the likes of Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama.

Baker also leads the unit in rebound with 5.1 boards per outing. 

As a result, he's a player of interest for the Gators heading into the bout.

Jalen Cook and Jordan Wright have shined alongside Baker, turning in 15.6 and 15 points, respectively, as well as over five combined assists per game.

The backcourt duo plays critical roles in the team's fast-paced approach — ranking No. 50 in adjusted tempo and No. 60 in average offensive possession length.

The style coincides with Florida's desired pace, suggesting a rapidly developing, back-and-forth affair similar to the 78-possession game LSU participated in a loss to Alabama on Saturday.

"I think LSU is really talented. They have multiple guys who could hurt you. Jalen Cook can really score it, Will Baker is a really tough cover at the five spot and then they have long, active wings who can make some shots. Watched a little bit of that game on Saturday live against Alabama and just a lot of baskets going back and forth. We've got to be ready to go. 

"It's going to be a challenge to guard them. They're a tough cover that way. My hope is that we can bring the same energy and enthusiasm on our home floor like we did this past Saturday."

While the tempohas the potential to pay dividends, especially with how the Tigers lineup stretches the floor and knock down shots at a high clip, it can also be a detriment.

They're ranked No. 342 in steal percentage and No. 280 in turnovers per game (13.2) offensively. The carelessness with the basketball allows opponents to take advantage of the live-ball turnovers to produce points on the opposite end.

Defensively, LSU recovers from its lackluster ball security by forcing takeaways of its own through a hyper-active halfcourt defensive, ranking No. 33 in steal percentage.

Wright catalyzes the effort with a team-leading 1.9 steals per game, utilizing his 6-foot-6 frame to work into passing lanes and disrupt opposing ball handlers as an on-ball defender.

While largely dependent on the disruption, like its offensive form, the unit's strength can quickly become a weakness.

The Tigers have struggled to defend without fouling, an area the Gators have notably taken advantage of when performing against foul-happy opponents. The former is positioned at the bottom of the nation in free throw rate.

Brandon's Prediction (13-5): Florida 87, LSU 77

This contest is a clash of similar run-and-gun styles, but I believe the advantage leans heavily in Florida's favor.

LSU hung with No. 15 Alabama on Saturday for the better portion of the first half. The Tigers ran the floor effectively, finding open looks inside to combat the Crimson Tide's hot shooting efforts.

However, when the contest rolled into the second period, the discrepancy in Bama's talent took over, allowing Nate Oats' squad to pull away for the win. 

I expect this game to be similar in that it's close in the first half before the Gators pull away out of the locker room break to seal the deal, showing their command of the style — especially of late, thanks to stellar play by guards Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton Jr. — is much stronger and more efficient than that of the Tigers.

Florida compounds its momentum by defeating LSU 87-77 in Gainesville but fails to cover the 10.5-point spread due to a slight hangover felt due to the emotional win over Auburn three days ago.

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