Florida vs. Mississippi State: Preview, Prediction, Odds and More

Everything you need to know before the Florida Gators tip-off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at home on Wednesday.

Photo: Florida forward Tyrese Samuel; Credit: Zach Goodall 

A January matchup with looming implications for March is on the horizon for Todd Golden's and Chris Jans' squads.

After exorcising their road demon on Saturday in Columbia, Mo. — convincingly taking down Missouri 79-67 — the Florida Gators return to the comfort of the Stephen C. O'Connell Center for a critical contest with the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Wednesday.

You can find everything you need to know before tip-off below, including an in-depth rundown of the matchup, game prediction and more. 

Florida Gators (12-6, 2-3 SEC) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-5, 2-3 SEC)

Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, Fla.

When: Wednesday, Jan. 24 at 8:30 p.m. ET

Watch: SEC Network | fuboTV (start your free trial)

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com | SiriusXM 119 or 190 & SXM App

Odds: The Gators are 3.5-point favorites over the Bulldogs on Wednesday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 155.5 points.

Series history: Florida leads the all-time series with Mississippi State, 67-53 (41-13 at home). In their most recent meeting in the SEC Tournament on March 9, 2023, the Bulldogs outlasted the Gators in overtime, 69-68, to advance to the quarterfinals of conference tournament action.

Important stories

• Florida Gators Down Missouri Tigers in Columbia, 79-67
• Gators Torched by Dalton Knecht, Fall to Vols 85-66
• Three Takeaways From Gators' 90-68 Drubbing of Razorbacks
• Florida Bounces Back With Convincing Win Over Arkansas, 90-68
• Column: Gators' Poor Defensive Effort Catalyzes Ugly Road Loss to Rebels
• Three Takeaways from Florida Hoops' Narrow Loss to Kentucky
• Florida Fails to Topple No. 6 Kentucky in SEC Opener, 87-85
• Column: Florida Guard Zyon Pullin Hitting Stride at the Perfect Time
• Florida Steamrolls Quinnipiac in Non-Conference Finale, 97-72
• Florida Gators Trounce Grambling State Tigers, 96-57
• Golden: Guard Zyon Pullin Will' Raise the Level' of Gators Squad
• Denzel Aberdeen a 'Great Example' for Gators' Program Under Todd Golden
• Exclusive: Golden's Gators Striving for 'Next Step' With Reconstructed Roster

The rundown

In five of Florida's six losses this season, the Gators have been hurt by the scoring firepower from their opponents, as each has ranked in the top 50 of adjusted offensive efficiency. Of those five opponents, only No. 6 Tennessee sports a defense (No. 2) rated higher than its offense (No. 19).

Baylor, Wake Forest, Kentucky, and Ole Miss are offensive-oriented.

Virginia is the lone squad to best UF without a prudent scoring prowess, and the Gators were notable without star veteran point guard Zyon Pullin as he served a three-game suspension to begin the year.

As a result, Florida seemingly holds an advantage against a Mississippi State team considered the No. 35 overall team per Kenpom in college basketball through 18 contests. The Bulldogs are slotted as a top-15 defensive team in the country but sit at just No. 76 in AdjO, though.

Jans' fundamentally sound defensive system is led by a notable ability to contest shots along the three-point line. On the year, they've allowed just 27.6% attempts from beyond the arc to find the bottom of the net, good for fourth-best in Division I. It's catalyzed the overarching No. 23 (45.3%) mark in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Mississippi State has also excelled in generating live-ball turnovers, accounting for 8.7 steals per game, a testament to the pestering on-ball defense the group deploys.

However, while closing out on perimeter shooters is a strength for the stout defending unit, the Bulldogs are susceptible to allowing good looks inside, ranking last in the SEC in two-point field goal percentage. 

The open looks for opposing offenses have come through consistent ball movement, as well as slashing guards and bigs working to the opposite block in pick-and-roll sets. The Gators have found success in that regard in recent contests, anchored by Pullin and Tyrese Samuel — posting an efficient 13.6 points and 8.3 boards per outing.

Their ability to earn trips to the foul line could also be a prominent factor as Mississippi State ranks No. 214 in free throw rate.

Offensively, MSST has leaned on true freshman guard Josh Hubbard for scoring production, as the 5-foot-10 sharpshooter accounts for 14.2 points per game on 39.7% from the floor and 36.9% from beyond the arc. Throughout the season, he's shot over 60% of his made field goals from behind the three-point line, with over 65% of his attempts being from long range.

Dashawn Davis leads the team in assists per game at 3.2, setting up the talented sixth-man in Hubbard with open looks as well as the likes of Jimmy Bell Jr. and Tolu Smith — who's produced 19 points per game since returning from injury six games ago — down low.

Brandon's Prediction (10-3): Florida 80, Mississippi State 74

A handful of games could decide the remainder of the Gators' 2023-24 season. Wednesday's matchup is one of those.

Despite a solid start to the year for the Bulldogs, exiting out-of-conference play at 11-2, they've limped through the first five games of SEC action in an unorthodox fashion. 

Losses to South Carolina, Alabama, and Kentucky and a monumental win over then-No. 5 Tennessee has Mississippi State looking more like a bubble popper than a bubble team itself through the early league slate. However, the roster talent suggests it could be with a midseason surge similar to the one it produced a year ago.

They got back in the win column against the league's bottomfeeder in Vanderbilt on Saturday, but question marks still loom regarding their consistency. 

Florida, while in the same boat, has one significant factor in its favor: The Gators are at home.

They've performed considerably better in Gainesville than on the road. And luckily for them, their next two games, both must-win, are in Exactech Arena.

So, while I think it's a closely contested bout, with Mississippi State's bigs leading the Bulldogs throughout against a UF frontcourt susceptible to allowing physical opposing forwards to heavily impact the contest, Florida feeds off the friendly environment en route to a crucial win over a fellow fringe NCAA tournament team.

The Gators claim the potential swing Quad-II game to move to 13-6 (3-3 SEC), beating the Bulldogs 80-74 in Gainesville.

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