Florida vs. Vanderbilt: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More

Everything you need to know before the Florida Gators host Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Freshly removed from a heartbreaking loss despite a valiant upset bid of No. 13 Alabama, the Florida Gators return to action on Saturday as hosts to the Vanderbilt Commodores.

The matchup is as close to a get-right contest as Florida can get in conference play, as Vandy is the lowest-rated unit in the SEC per KenPom (No. 206) and in the NET Ranking (No. 230), by far. With just five games remaining in the regular season, fine-tuning the already well-oiled machine for March and producing another victory is the main focus for Todd Golden and Co. versus Jerry Stackhouse's squad.

You can find everything you need to know before tip-off between the two SEC foes below, including an in-depth rundown of Florida's opponent, game prediction and more.

No. 24 Florida Gators (18-8, 8-5 SEC) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (7-19, 2-11 SEC)

Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, Fla.

When: Saturday, Feb. 24 at 1 p.m. ET

Watch: SEC Network | fuboTV (start your free trial)

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com | SiriusXM 208 or 191 & SXM App

Odds: The Gators are 16.5-point favorites over the Commodores on Saturday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 152.2 points.

Series history: Florida is tied with Vanderbilt 73-73 in the all-time series. In their most recent meeting on Feb. 25, 2023, the Gators fell to the Commodores on the road, 88-72.

Important stories

• No. 24 Florida Falls Short of OT Upset vs. No. 13 Alabama, 98-93
• Column: Gators Guard Zyon Pullin Deserves More National Recognition
• Florida Gators Hoops Cracks AP Top 25
• Gators' Second-Half Surge Pushes Florida Past Georgia, 88-82
• Florida Gators Narrowly Escape LSU Tigers, 82-80
• Gators in 'Great Spot' for March Madness Bid
• What Todd Golden Said After Florida's 81-65 Upset of No. 12 Auburn
• Gators Topple No. 12 Tigers in Dominant Fashion, 81-65
• Todd Golden "Very Excited" for Gators' Bout with Bruce Pearl, No. 12 Tigers
• Gators Climb in ESPN's Bracketology Projections Following First Q1 Win
• Florida Tripped Up by Texas A&M in College Station, 67-66
• Social Media Reacts to Florida's Upset of No. 10 Kentucky
• Walter Clayton Jr. Forces OT, Uplifts Florida to Quad-I Win vs. Kentucky
• Gators Outlast Pesky Dawgs in Overtime Thriller, 102-98
• Florida Fends Off Mississippi State's Late Comeback Efforts, Post 79-70 Win
• Florida Gators Down Missouri Tigers in Columbia, 79-67
• Exclusive: Golden's Gators Striving for 'Next Step' With Reconstructed Roster

The rundown

Rivaled only by Missouri on tape, the Vanderbilt Commodores have produced the worst on-court product of any SEC team in the 2023-24 campaign.

Rated No. 211 and No. 221 on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, the unit has drastically underperformed even low expectations garnered in the preseason.

The Commodores operate out of a small ball lineup with 6-foot-8 sophomore forward Ven-Allen Lubin commanding the five spot while four guards make up the remainder of the group's starting five.

Despite working without a credible rim protector on the interior, rotational bigs Carter Lang (6-foot-9), Jaqualon Roberts (6-foot-8) and Tasos Kamateros (6-foot-8) also lack the size star seven-footer Liam Robbin provided the unit a year ago, Vanderbilt's found most of its success on that end of the floor defending inside the arc this season. 

Even then, it's relative. Opponents are connecting on just over half their shots from inside, according to KenPom's two-point field goal percentage metrics. Three-point shooting against the Commodores has drastically outperformed national averages, suggesting miscommunication on ball screen switches/hedging and failure to close out on shooters at a consistent rate.

That bodes well for UF's Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard.

On the other end, Lubin is joined by guards Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence in spearheading the Vanderbilt attack on the offensive end. 

Manjon leads the unit with a respectable 14 points and 3.7 assists per contest, while Lawrence (13.4 points, five rebounds and 1.5 steals per game) and Lubin (11 points and 5.8 rebounds) serve as valuable complements. 

However, the group as a whole has failed to supplement their efforts. The Commodores have shot a lowly 39.2% from the field and 28.8% from three on the year as a team, simultaneously struggling to share the basketball on made baskets throughout league play, ranking dead-last in the SEC in assists per made field goal in the 13 conference games thus far.

The inefficiency presents an opportunity for even an up-and-down defense, like Florida's, to find success in halting Vandy's scoring advances. 

One of the few areas the Commodores have performed relatively well throughout the season is in its ability to take care of the basketball in the halfcourt, ranking No. 111 in steal percentage, No. 92 in non-steal turnovers and No. 90 in turnover percentage.

Pairing that with an evident desire to slow the pace of the contest down, at No. 293 in adjusted tempo with an average possession length rating of 19.2 seconds, Vanderbilt could find a way to take Florida out of its usual rhythm by forcing the Gators to spend considerable energy on the defensive end.

It won't exactly correlate to points — if the numbers remain consistent — but it could make the game closer than the 16.5-point spread suggests.

Brandon's Prediction (15-5): Florida 92, Vanderbilt 69

The Gators have a chance to reconcile a heartbreaking loss to the Crimson Tide against the SEC's bottom feeder in the Commodores. 

Vanderbilt doesn't provide much impediment on either end to a Florida squad performing as one of the best teams in the conference at this stage, suggesting that UF can have its way offensively, per usual, while displaying an uptick in defense success against a mediocre attack. 

Vandy's four-guard lineup presents a considerable mismatch advantage for the Gators' quartet of frontcourt pieces — Tyrese Samuel, Micah Handlogten, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. It allows Florida to clean up on the boards and outrebound the Commodores by double-digits, produce over 20 second-chance points and win at the rim with a bevy of buckets coming in the paint. 

As a result, I expect Todd Golden's squad to handle business on Saturday in Gainesville. 

Florida dominates in all facets of the contest en route to a 92-69 victory over Vanderbilt and posts its 19th win of the season. 

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