Why the Florida Gators Will or Won't Make a March Madness Run

What positions the Gators for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, and what could deter them from doing so?

The Florida Gators are scheduled for an NCAA Tournament contest for the first time since the 2020-21 campaign on Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET. They'll take on the winner of Boise State versus Colorado in the First Four game on Wednesday night at 9:30 ET.

Florida has flashed the fortitude to compete with some of the nation's top programs this season, including victories over fellow tournament teams like Auburn, Alabama (x2), Kentucky, Mississippi State and Texas A&M, suggesting the potential to make noise in the Big Dance.

Are the Gators equipped to produce some madness in March?

All Gators provides cases for and against Todd Golden's squad making a deep run in the 2023-24 NCAA Tournament.

Why Florida Will Make a Run

Several signs point toward the Gators making noise on college basketball's biggest stage this year.

Florida poses a high-octane scoring attack with the propensity to pile on points in a hurry. Ranked as the nation's No. 6 scoring offense, averaging 85.1 points per game, the Gators present elite scoring guards and capable big men to present a mismatch nightmare for even highly ranked defenses. 

The tempo in which they employ and the ability to maximize possessions in quantity — with second and third chance points — has guided them to this stage.

And, despite flashing signs of peaking at varying points this season, Florida is freshly removed from playing some of its best basketball in the SEC Tournament.

The Gators haven't plateaued. They've continued to grow, and peaking at the right time is critical for March Madness success.

No strength is amplified more in the postseason than guard play.

In recent memory, the recipe for lower seeds climbing the ladder to compete with expected contenders has been stellar production from the backcourt. The Gators have that. It's helped them compete with the upper echelon of the SEC — highly regarded as the second-most competitive conference in the sport — this season.

Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton Jr. have served as one of the most dynamic guard duos in the country this season, accounting for a combined 32.7 points and 7.5 assists per game to flip the script on a struggling Florida program en route to returning to the tournament field by posting a 24-11 record thus far in 2023-24.

Florida Gators backcourt duo Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton Jr. are working in transition against Michigan. The guards have been critical to the Gators' success throughout the 2023-24 campaign / © Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Their abilities as scorers (both on and off the ball), facilitators and ball handlers — not to mention the added contributions they make beyond the stat sheet on both ends of the floor — are critical to the Gators' success.

And if history is any indication, those skills directly translate to tournament success.

To make matters even better for Florida, the starting point guard and shooting guard are not the only ones who can produce from the backcourt.

Junior Will Richard has served as a vital asset in the starting lineup as a true 3-and-D piece throughout the year, showcasing the ability to catch fire from beyond the arc and produce winning plays that span beyond the stat sheet. Sophomore Riley Kugel, amid an up-and-down year, also has the skill set to elevate the Gators roster when he sees the floor. The recent emergence of sophomore Denzel Aberdeen — who posted a career-high 20 points to lead Florida's 18-point comeback win over Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament semifinal — also aids the unit in that area.

Simply put, Florida's guard corps is deep and talented. It could be the difference between a first-weekend exit and an unexpected move into the Sweet 16, just like it has for other teams in the past.

If the Gators get rolling past round one, under the right circumstances, stellar guard play makes anything possible.

Why Florida Won't Make a Run

Contrary to the aforementioned reasoning for Florida's ability to post several wins en route to an appearance in the second weekend of the tournament — or even beyond — the Gators have some glaring deficiencies that suggest the potential for an early exit.

The most often criticized aspect of UF's gameplay this season has been its free-throw shooting. Knocking down just 71.2% of shots from the line, the Gators dug a steep hole early in the campaign as they struggled to move above 70% at the line during an extended stretch of the out-of-conference schedule.

Even Clayton, who connected at a 95.3% mark a season ago at Iona, stumbled out of the gate from the line. Like Florida, he's cleaned up his performance throughout the year, finding the net on his last 33 free-throw attempts and 42 of his previous 43.

He finished the year shooting 87.6% from the stripe. 

The Gators rank No. 225 in free throw percentage on the season, and while the product has certainly improved as the year has rolled on, the spurts of inconsistency are still prevalent.

Florida forward Tyrese Samuel takes a shot from the free-throw line. He's shot at a 56.3% clip form the line this season, presenting a potential concern for the Gators in the NCAA Tournament / Zach Goodall

Notably, forward Tyrese Samuel suffered a setback to his improved form to begin SEC Tournament play against Georgia. He missed nine of his 23 attempts on the evening after going 9-of-9 in his previous outing. He shoots at a concerning 56.3% clip from the line on the season and has also shown the propensity to slump below that mark.

As the second-most often fouled Gator on the team, at least pertaining to attempts from the charity stripe this season, behind only Pullin, Samuel could leave critical points on the board in inopportune moments.

Other players have held their own when offered chances from the line, especially since the start of league play in January.

But, if Florida falls into a single-game lull as it did against Georgia in the second round of the SEC Tournament, it could plague the unit's effort to advance in a tightly contested matchup against a higher-caliber opponent.

In addition, Florida's dominant rebounding efforts early in the year have become few and far between. This aspect of tournament play can elevate a squad's ability to post wins against any opponent it faces.

While the Gators flashed that ability to begin the campaign, the product has been thwarted to some extent recently. Both matchups against Vanderbilt — albeit a drastically smaller opponent — stick out.

The recent lull becomes magnified following the loss of starting big man Micah Handlogten, who suffered a broken leg against the Auburn Tigers in the SEC Championship game. Statistically one of the nation's premier rebounds — specifically on the offensive end, ranked No. 4 in the country for individual offensive rebounding percentage per KenPom — the sophomore big man from Marshall provided a high-caliber glass-cleaning presence to aid UF in maximizing possessions with second and third chance points.

Although his scoring production wasn't stellar, he frequently played above the rim to tip in the ball falling off the surface of the rim and pulled down boards to kick out to the array of capable scoring available on the floor for the Gators at all times.

Now, Florida is tasked with replacing 6.9 rebounds per game while simultaneously remaining dominant in the area to maintain its edge over the opposition.

Doing so is much easier said than done, especially as the unit has already slipped there recently.

Final Thoughts

If Florida wins one, it'll win several.

The former section (Why Florida Will Make a Run) seems more likely when examining the two scenarios, considering the trajectory the Gators have been on since the end of the 2023-24 conference slate.

The loss to Vanderbilt to end the regular season has been flushed away following an uber-impressive run to the SEC title game. Despite the loss of Handlogten, Florida's frontcourt depth is equipped to pick up the slack after an injury this season, unlike last.

Gators center Alex Condon finishes at the rim against Auburn in Gainesville. The freshman big man will take on a starting role in the Florida rotation following Micah Handlogten's injury / Zach Goodall

Handlogten's effectiveness on the boards will be sorely missed, but UF's offensive prowess with Samuel and Alex Condon commanding the floor together more consistently will grow as each forward has showcased the ability to score out of the pick-and-roll and with one-on-one paint touches.

Condon's presence on the defensive interior as a rim protector — he averages a team-high 1.2 blocks per game — also bodes well for Florida's contention with any opponent it faces. Pairing that with a backcourt rotation that has grown more dynamic in the last week with Aberdeen's emergence, the Gators continue to improve.

The ongoing development makes Florida a team to fear. The deeper the Gators go in the tournament, the more dangerous it becomes to advance.

The first bout with either Boise State or Colorado will be difficult, given the unit's propensity to play at the level of its opponents this season. However, if the Gators get past the first round, a date with Marquette is expected to be on the slate, barring an unexpected upset by Western Kentucky in round one. 

Florida matches up well with Marquette, despite the dominance of Golden Eagles guard Tyler Kolek, as both teams attempt to push the tempo and maximize the number of possessions to score early and often.

The Gators would hold a considerable advantage on the glass in that contest. 

It suggests the potential for a monumental upset of Shaka Smart's No. 2-seeded squad to move Florida into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016-17 — when they reached the Elite 8 in the second year of Mike White's tenure in Gainesville.

Will history repeat itself with the Gators again pushing toward a National Championship in Arizona, to cap off Golden's second year in command? 

---

Stay tuned to All Gators for continuous coverage of Florida Gators football, basketball and recruiting. Follow along on social media at @AllGatorsOnFN on Twitter and All Gators on FanNation-Sports Illustrated on Facebook.