Florida vs. Missouri: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More
Photo: Florida guard Riley Kugel; Credit: Zach Goodall
The Gators are currently 0-3 in true road contests during the 2023-24 campaign after suffering an 85-66 loss to No. 6 Tennessee on Tuesday.
On Saturday, Florida will take on the struggling Missouri Tigers with intentions to reconcile their away game woes. It's the first non-Quad I opponent for Todd Golden's squad in a hostile environment, making it uber-important for the sputtering Gators to take advantage.
You can find everything you need to know before tip-off below, including an in-depth rundown of the matchup, game prediction and more.
Florida Gators (11-6, 1-3 SEC) vs. Missouri Tigers (8-9, 0-4 SEC)
Where: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Mo.
When: Saturday, Jan. 20 at 8 p.m. ET
Watch: ESPNU | fuboTV (start your free trial)
Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com
Odds: The Gators are 2.5-point favorites over the Tigers on Saturday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 160.5 points.
Series history: Florida leads the all-time series with Missouri, 9-4. In their most recent meeting on Jan. 14, 2023, the Gators toppled the Tigers in Gainesville, 73-64.
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- Three Takeaways From Gators' 90-68 Drubbing of Razorbacks
- Florida Bounces Back With Convincing Win Over Arkansas, 90-68
- Column: Gators' Poor Defensive Effort Catalyzes Ugly Road Loss to Rebels
- Three Takeaways from Florida Hoops' Narrow Loss to Kentucky
- Florida Fails to Topple No. 6 Kentucky in SEC Opener, 87-85
- Column: Florida Guard Zyon Pullin Hitting Stride at the Perfect Time
- Florida Steamrolls Quinnipiac in Non-Conference Finale, 97-72
- Florida Gators Trounce Grambling State Tigers, 96-57
- Golden: Guard Zyon Pullin Will' Raise the Level' of Gators Squad
- Denzel Aberdeen a 'Great Example' for Gators' Program Under Todd Golden
- Exclusive: Golden's Gators Striving for 'Next Step' With Reconstructed Roster
The rundown
This contest is slated to consist of a lot of points, as Florida and Missouri rank 13th and 14th in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency, respectively, since league play began four contests ago.
The Gators' troubles are essentially summarized by lackluster physicality down low and lapses working through ball screens, but they find spurts of defensive fortitude.
Missouri's ailments on that end, on the other hand, are defined by struggles to defend in the half-court.
Ranking last in the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed and three-point percentage allowed, as well as No. 13 in two-point field goal percentage allowed, the Tigers have notably struggled to combat opposing offenses since the schedule turned over into SEC play in January.
It continues a year-long trend for the post-Kobe Brown Tigers' one season removed from the program's unparalleled 25-win season. It's No. 240 in scoring defense at 73.9 points per game allowed thus far this season, a facet of play the Gators will have the opportunity to exploit as one of the nation's top scoring units (No. 12 in points per game nationally at 85.2).
However, despite their ineffectiveness guarding on-ball, Dennis Gates' squad has been turnover-dependent, ranking second in forced turnovers per game.
The pressure the group applies is a staple of Gates-coached teams dating back to his time at Cleveland State. Displaying promise in generating blocks, steals and non-steal turnovers, the Tigers adequately contend shots at the rim, play aggressively to disrupt passing lanes — taking chances to turn defense into offense — and force erratic play from opposing passers.
Missouri rests at No. 65 in turnovers forced per game. But, the boom or bust nature hasn't elicited the success it seeks, playing a prominent role in its 0-4 start against SEC opposition.
As a result, Missouri's route to winning is through its offense. Operating a ball screen-heavy attack based at the top of the key, the Tigers aim to take advantage of mismatches and miscommunication guarding the pick-and-roll.
Whether an opposing forward gets switched onto a guard — allowing the Tigers' ball handler to blow by toward the basket — a guard onto a big, or there are complications hedging the screen, Missouri has a propensity to take advantage for easy looks at the rim. Accordingly, despite posing a limited threat from beyond the arc, the unit is ranked No. 67 in two-point field goal percentage this season.
Florida's defense has struggled in that area.
Mizzou's efficiency is a byproduct of its smart shot selection, ball security and ability to avoid blocks. The Tigers rank first in block percentage and steal percentage in the SEC since league play began.
Their effort is led by guard Sean East II, who's accounted for 16.5 points on 53% shooting from the floor. A dynamic shot creator with a steady hand as a floor general, East catalyzes the unit's offensive attack as the most oft-utilized player, similar to Zyon Pullin's role with Florida.
Before Missouri's 93-75 loss to Alabama on the road on Tuesday, East posted seven straight games with 15-plus points. It was just the third time he failed to eclipse the double-digit mark in points this season.
East also gets his teammates involved, as evident by his 3.8 assists per game to lead Mizzou in the category. Most notably, East works primarily with forward Noah Carter in the aforementioned pick-and-roll offensive sets.
Carter averaged 12.8 points and a team-high 5.7 rebounds per game to supplement East's play.
Tamar Bates and Nick Honor rotate as tertiary options to the guard-forward duo.
Stops will come at a premium for both squads in this matchup, making it uber-important to capitalize on the opportunities afforded by not taking the ball out of the net on the preceding defensive possession.
Brandon's Prediction (9-3): Florida 88, Missouri 83
Despite the evident roster talent that has allowed the Gators to play at a tournament-caliber level at points this season, the woes in hostile environments have plagued their success and, therefore, their standing in the national landscape for a potential return to the NCAA Tournament.
Accordingly, the losses in their lone three road games on the year present concern for deeming Florida as a victor in this prediction.
And while criticism of the style of the previous defeats is warranted, it's important to understand who the Gators dropped those games to. Wake Forest, Ole Miss and Tennessee got the better of Florida. Each opponent ranks in the top 60 of the NET at this stage, making all three contests fall within the Quad-I category.
Missouri, meanwhile, is No. 117 in the NET. The Tigers hold the second-worst rating in the SEC, in front of just Vanderbilt through 17 games.
As a result, Florida, with the recent re-emergence of Riley Kugel, is in a position to overcome its struggles away from Gainesville as Todd Golden and Co. travel to Columbia on Saturday.
In what I expect to be a high-scoring affair, the Gators won't have it easy. They'll have to take care of the basketball and defend at a high level to put themselves in a position to overcome Mizzou.
Ultimately, I believe the Gators' presence on the boards and propensity to eliminate second-chance opportunities, while generating their own on the other end, can be the difference. Florida ranks first in the country in rebounds per game, with a +10 rebounding margin (No. 11) in each appearance. Missouri pales in comparison, grabbing just 32.71 rebounds per game (No. 317) with a -4 margin (No. 325) on the boards.
The Gators are able to control the glass en route to a near-90-point performance in enemy territory. They post a confidence-boosting, Quad-II road victory to bolster their resume and potentially kickstart their play as they hover around must-win mode.
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