Analytics Reveal just How Difficult Florida Gators Football Schedule Really Is

The Florida Gators football schedule has been acknowledged as the toughest in the country, and even that is underselling it.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier needs a big season, but his schedule is brutal in 2024. / Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY

It is not the first time this offseason that the Florida Gators have seen their program and the words “hardest schedule in 2024” grouped in the same sentence. 

In fact, everyone agrees that the Gators have structured a terrifying schedule filled with top-25 opponent after top-25 opponent and just one "easy" out-of-conference game. 

Now, a new ranking has appeared courtesy of KFordRatings.com

Florida has the most difficult schedule in the nation, per my Preseason v1 power ratings

The No. 12 power-rated team would be expected to win just 6.9 games against the Gators regular season schedule

That’s 0.5 wins fewer than would be expected against any other team’s schedule pic.twitter.com/tM70zqx5LA

— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) June 19, 2024

This ranking predicts the number of expected wins the No. 12 power-rated team in the country would have against a given team’s regular season schedule.

For the Gators' schedule, the expected wins for a theoretical No. 12 team came out to be 6.9. This is the lowest win total and would be a 0.5 win lower than the next team, Vanderbilt. 

Put into real terms, ESPN ranks the Penn State Nittany Lions No. 12 in their post-spring rankings. Penn State would go 7-6 against Florida's schedule.

The Gators were unranked and not listed among the 34 teams who received consideration.

This just shows what is ahead for the Gators in 2024.

Their out-of-conference games are Miami, Samford, UCF and Florida State. Only one of those is going to be labeled as an automatic win. 

Then, they dive into a daunting SEC schedule that will test them to the max. At home, it’s Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU and Ole Miss. 

On the road, Florida travels to Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas and a neutral site against presumed No.1 Georgia.

Of all these teams, seven are tabbed as post-spring Top-25 teams by ESPN’s Mark Schlabach. 

Those are No.1 Georgia, No.3 Texas, No. 6 Ole Miss, No.11 Florida State, No.14 LSU, No.15 Tennessee and No. 24 Miami. 

It’s astonishing for a team that has taken its fair share of punches over the past two years to have assembled this schedule, but here we are. 

Napier is somehow going to have to succeed under harsh conditions next season or else the fanbase that is already generating a lot of dangerous noise will make it hard for him to see another year with the program.