Beating Georgia Might Not Be Enough to Save Billy Napier's Job

As Billy Napier continues the battle to earn another season at Florida, we look into how much a Georgia win would help his case

It's a uphill battle for Billy Napier to keep his job, and even beating Georgia might not be enough / Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The bye week is over, and the Florida Gators head to Jacksonville to take on rival Georgia. Head coach Billy Napier has been fighting the calls for his ousting since the start of the season. He finally beat Kentucky, but Georgia is on another level. 

In theory, beating Georgia would help save his job, but there are no guarantees. Let’s look at previous head coaches in their final seasons to determine if the outcome of what was once known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party was able to make or break their tenure.

We’re going to look at the last four Gators coaches to be fired: Ron Zook, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen. Urban Meyer is left out since he wasn’t fired, he retired. 

The Ones Who Lost to Georgia on the Way Out

Of these four head coaches being observed, only one was fired immediately after a loss to Georgia. McElwain was fired in 2017 after an ugly 42-7 blowout loss against second-year head coach Kirby Smart. It was McElwain’s first loss in Jacksonville. 

The Gators were in the middle of a tailspin following a 3-1 start. However, this firing goes beyond just the loss to Georgia. Controversy has started over McElwain’s claims of alleged death threats. On top of that players had been suspended for misuse of funds ahead of the start of the season. 

There were rumors before the game that McElwain was going to be fired for cause over not providing more information on the alleged death threats, but this was initially denied ahead of the Georgia game. The loss to Georgia was a good chance to pull the plug on what was considered a peculiar hire to begin with. 

The next coach we'll look at is Ron Zook. Like McElwain, he had a winning record against Georgia (2-1). His only loss came in his final year as head coach. In Zook's case, Georgia was just one of the losses that contributed to his firing. He also lost to rivals LSU and Tennessee as well as unranked Mississippi State. He also hadn’t won a bowl game. Florida just wasn’t performing well. Losing to Georgia was definitely a factor, but those other losses gave him no room for error. 

The third coach to lose to Georgia on the way out that we'll analyze is Dan Mullen. Like in 2017, this loss confirmed that a tailspin was imminent. With 2:16 seconds left in the first half, Georgia put up three touchdowns to turn a 3-0 lead into a 24-0 lead at the half. The Gators managed a fourth-quarter touchdown to avoid being shutout for the first time since 1988 in a 34-7 loss. 

He finished 1-3 against Georgia as the Gators head coach.

Mullen wasn’t fired following the game, but it didn’t help. He didn’t make it to the end of the season despite the Gators being a playoff contender the previous two years. Had that second win been enough to buy him another year to correct course, we’ll never know. He won just one more game, and it required a 70-52 shootout win against FCS Samford. Napier, at the very least, throttled Samford like he was supposed to. 

The One Who Beat Georgia on the Way Out

Obviously, losing to Georgia doesn’t help your case to stay. However, there is a precedent that beating Georgia doesn't buy you time either. 

Will Muschamp beat a ranked Georgia team for his first and only win against them as the Gators' head coach (1-3 overall). That didn’t help save him after a 6-6 finish to the season. Now, of course, he lost to three unranked teams at home as well. That'll do you in.

It also followed up a disastrous 4-8 season, where the Gators lost their last seven games, including one infamously to then-FCS Georgia Southern. That dominant 2012 season that earned them a Sugar Bowl appearance just didn’t matter anymore. Outside of that 2012 season, Muschamp didn’t do that much better than Napier has done. He was 11-2 one year and a combined 17-19 the other three years. Napier is currently 15-17. The only difference from year one was that he won the bowl game. 

After all of that, it’s difficult to use the Georgia game as an indicator of whether Napier will stick around next season. What can be concluded is the odds of him being fired after the game don’t appear to be very high. It’s possible, especially if the loss is bad enough, but even then, precedent doesn't favor the decision. 

So, Napier could beat Georgia, and it would be an incredible week. However, with the schedule ahead, there is plenty of time to make people forget about it. Maybe if he beats Georgia and then also beats Florida State and wins the bowl game, that could be sufficient. However, that means the Gators lose two more home games in this scenario. If he loses to a currently 1-7 FSU team, he's probably cooked no matter what.

It’s safe to say, win or lose in Jacksonville, his hands are tied.