Crunching Numbers: Florida Needs to End Their Safety Rotation

Loads of data points to Shawn Davis and Brad Stewart being the only safeties that matter on Florida's roster. So why do the Gators insist on playing four guys at two spots?

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

The Gators have boasted one of the best defenses in the nation this season, but recently they have struggled without their two best players in defensive ends Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard. Injuries have been haunting this team all year, as cornerback C.J. Henderson, Greenard, Zuniga, linebacker Amari Burney, safety Jeawon Taylor, and others have all been out at some point this season.

Coming into the season, many had questions about the safety position, especially after some close to the program we’re raving about how much they improved in the offseason and through camp. 

Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham and safeties coach Ron English started the season without Brad Stewart for the first two games, and the staff elected to rotate the safeties to try and find a unit that would work moving forward. This has been the game plan since, as the Gators have continued to rotate the safeties throughout the season. Shawn Davis and Brad Stewart have been given the nod to start, and the other duo consists of Donovan Stiner and Taylor.

Interested to see how each tandem performed, I decided to track each duo's performance, drive by drive. Now, three of the four missed some time, so I took my data from a five-game set which contained the following contests; Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, and South Carolina. Each of the four played in these five games, so I decided to limit to just these to avoid any other factors which would sway the data.

Each recorded drive includes the final result (touchdown, field goal, etc.), the number of plays the defense played, the number of yards and points allowed, and if any turnovers were forced. To make it clear, I’m measuring the overall defensive stats with the two units on/off the field.

When Jeawon Taylor and Donovan Stiner were on the field, the defense gave up an average of 6.45 yards per play, as they played 95 plays together and gave up 613 yards. When the other duo consisting of Davis and Stewart was on the field, the defense allowed 896 yards on 163 plays. This comes out to 5.49 yards per play, almost a full yard less compared to the duo of Stiner and Taylor.

I wasn’t really surprised to come to this conclusion, but I expected a much wider margin when it came to average yards per play between the two duos. When you watch the film, you know how different the team performs when the different units are on the field, so I decided to see what would happen if I took out the data from the LSU game. Stiner and Taylor only played 14 snaps in the LSU game compared to Davis and Stewart’s 34 snaps, which is exactly what you want if you are a Florida fan.

Without the data from the LSU game, the differences become obvious between the two pairs. Excluding the LSU data, the average yard difference shoots up to 1.79 yards favoring Davis and Stewart. This is astounding, to say the least, but not very surprising as Stewart and Davis are widely considered as the better duo. 

After taking out the LSU data, you’ll find when Davis and Stewart were on the field, the defense gave up only 46 yards more than when Stiner and Taylor were playing - yet Davis and Stewart played 48 more snaps.

Stiner missed time as he was ejected from the Kentucky game due to a targeting penalty - which led to him missing the first half of the Tennessee game. This partially explains the snap differential between the two units, and Taylor has also been out due to a lingering shoulder issue at various points of the season. 

It’s no surprise that Davis and Stewart graded out highest on Pro Football Focus (PFF), as their overall grades both are classified as “starters” (if you aren’t familiar with the way PFF grades players, give this a look). 

Basically, PFF uses a +/- 2-point system to evaluate players, considering every play in every category. According to PFF, a starting-caliber player owns a rating of 70-84 - Davis currently is the highest-ranked safety on the roster at 76.9. Stewart is graded as 71.2.

Shawn Davis has been the best safety on the team all year, and his grades reflect that - even after having some rough weeks coming back from an injured ankle. Davis has been targeted the most of any of the safeties by a wide margin, and has allowed eight catches on 13 targets, giving up 91 yards and 11.4 yards per catch. 

Sounds like a bad stat line, right? Not so fast. Davis had racked up three interceptions, one pass breakup, and allowed a 42.9 passer rating when targeted. He has only allowed 25 yards after the catch, which averages out to only 3.1 yards after catch per reception. His coverage grade comes in at 78.0, which is easily the best on the entire team. 

Davis has been overaggressive on his angles which has costed him at times, as his tackling grade comes in at an abysmal 54.4 - however, that grade still puts him ahead of Taylor and Stiner in that department. The Miami product also boasts an 83.0 pass-rush grade, which shouldn’t come as a surprise as Todd Grantham occasionally send his safeties on blitzes. Despite a poor tackling grade, there is no denying Shawn Davis’ playmaking ability, as he has posted the most turnovers of anyone on Florida's defense.

Brad Stewart is the second-best rated safety among the four, as he grades out at 71.2. Run defense is a strong suit for Stewart, as he holds the highest grade on the team within this category at 70.2. Stewart understands the fundamentals of tackling better than any other safety on the team, and that is obvious as he holds the only starting grade within the tackling category at 75.6. Most importantly, Stewart isn’t afraid of contact, unlike some other safeties on the team. He doesn’t get beat often in coverage and tackles well in space. Stewart is a serviceable SEC safety and meshes well with Davis on the backend.

Now the bad news - brace yourselves, because no Florida fan wants to read what’s coming. 

Let’s start with the better of the two safeties in the second tandem, this being Jeawon Taylor. The veteran safety possesses a 64.9 overall grade, classified in the “backup” category. His coverage grade is 65.4, which is a bit better than I initially expected. However, his actual coverage stats are poor. When Taylor is targeted in coverage, he has given up one touchdown on only five attempts and his passer rating when targeting is horrific, coming in at 123.3. 

Taylor’s run defense has been bad too - he just doesn’t like to hit. This might be due to his injured shoulder, but regardless, his run defense has been suspect. And Taylor's tackling grade is even worse as at 34.9, which is just unbelievable. He is out of position constantly, and even when he is in the correct positon, Taylor typically fails to make a play.

Finally, let's move on to Donovan Stiner. Now, there’s no denying Stiner is the luckiest player in all of Florida football, as he always seems to be in the right place at the right time: The 2018 Mississippi State game, two weeks ago vs. Auburn, and so on.

Stiner’s grades are awful, with an overall grade is 58.3, which PFF considers to be "replaceable". Stiner has the worst grade among the four safeties in three of the four categories measured, which were run defense, tackling, pass rush, and coverage. Stiner’s tackling has been just as bad as Taylor’s, again graded as replaceable at a horrific 51.1 grade. 

Stiner still struggles with pursuit, and his run defense grade displays that at 47.1. Stiner’s coverage is rated at 63.9, and his best grade is 64.4 which comes in the pass rush category. Not exactly the category you want a safety to be his best at.

In conclusion, the safety rotation needs to stop. There is no need to play four players at a position that requires two when you have two clear-cut starters at said position. 

I get rotating guys in for a quick break and whatnot, but this whole drive-by-drive, flip-flopping idea needs to be left behind the bye week. This is Division 1, SEC football. There is no reason to willingly play two guys that are struggling while another two are doing their jobs well.

Imagine if Matt Elam was pulled to get Valdez Showers reps, or if Marcus Maye got pulled in favor of Nick Washington. 

I just don’t get it. 

Something has to give, and the Gators have a very talented Trey Dean III playing out of position at STAR, who used to play safety throughout high school. Burney is also great in coverage and would be capable of starting at STAR, if need be. 

It’s a bye week this week, and maybe we’ll see Todd Grantham and Co. change some defensive matchups to one-up Georgia within the scheme. All anyone could ask is for the Gators to play their best players, and not rotate in struggling safeties only to leave two better players at that position standing and watching on the sideline.