ESPN's Post-Spring Rankings See Gators Just-Outside Top 25

ESPN's post-spring SP+ rankings show the Florida Gators to be improved, but the schedule is daunting.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier vs. Tennessee 2023 / Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The Florida Gators dropped their final-five games in 2023 after a promising 5-2 start. They finished 5-7 on the season; their third-consecutive seven-loss campaign.

The last two were under the guidance of head coach Billy Napier. It's not a hot-take to say he won't survive a third.

There are signs of improvement in Gainesville, but will they be enough for Napier to remain the head coach in 2025? There is immediate help coming in the transfer portal including a recent commitment from former Arizona State wide receiver Elijhah Badger.

Cormani McClain is a former 5-star cornerback headed to Gainesville from Colorado, and Jason Zandamela was considered the top interior-offensive line prospect in the portal. 247Sports considers Florida's transfer haul the fifth best in the nation.

A top-15 recruiting class will be on campus including the nation's No. 1 quarterback DJ Lagway who participated in spring practice.

ESPN's Bill Connelly likes what he sees from the Gators and has them ranked No. 33 in his updated SP+ rankings. However, he takes special note of Florida's schedule and calls out its difficulty in his rankings. (More on SP+ Rankings)

"I base SP+ strength-of-schedule ratings on a simple premise: How would the average top-five team fare against your schedule," asked Connelly rhetorically. If you have Florida's schedule, which features four projected top-nine teams (and nine top-25s), the average top-five team would produce just a 0.762 win percentage, or about 9.1 wins on average.

"That's absolutely brutal, and it's why, despite fielding what should be a borderline top-30 team, the Gators start out with only a 27% chance of achieving bowl eligibility.

"If they get to 8-4, give Billy Napier the national coach of the year award."

In short, Connelly thinks the Gators should be considerably better in 2024. However with a slate that features road games against No. 4 Texas, No. 12 FSU, and No. 16 Tennessee along with home games against No. 1 Georgia, No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 13 Texas A&M and an opener against No. 19 Miami, the record is unlikely to reflect a large improvement.

Would a record cracking .500 and some upset wins be enough to get Napier another year?

Gators fans are hoping the team is considerably better than a "borderline top-30 team" and all questions are put to bed with a season that would earn Connelly's vote for Napier as the national coach of the year.