Every Florida Gators Bowl Projection So Far

The Florida Gators are now in the conversation to go bowling, so here is where they are projected to start the week

Despite the tough start to the season, the Gators made their way back into bowl contention / Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At long last, the Florida Gators (5-5, 3-4 SEC) )are in the bowl projections discussion. The upset over LSU put them within striking distance of getting to their second bowl game under Billy Napier. 

They just need to win one of the next two games: 8-2 Ole Miss (No. 11) or 1-9 Florida State.

With Florida back in the discussion, let’s look at their current bowl projections. These are the published projections as of Monday morning on Nov. 18 and are subject to change. Anything published later on was not able to be included in this edition.

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20) 

Projected Matchup: USF (College Football News), Virginia Tech (Action Network)

The Gators have played in the Gasparilla Bowl once. They lost 29-17 to UCF in 2021 to cap off the disastrous season that saw Dan Mullen ousted and replaced by Billy Napier. 

Florida has played USF three times (3-0 all-time), most recently in 2022 - Napier’s first season. USF set off some alarms as Florida scraped away with a 31-28 win in Gainesville. USF has made strides under head coach Alex Golseh, but Florida would still be the favorite - they just would need to play that way. 

In the alternate Gasparilla Bowl scenario, the Gators would play Virginia Tech for the first time since 1985. Like Florida, it hasn’t been a great year record-wise for Tech, but they similarly have had some stronger games against ranked opponents. They lost to Miami on a controversial review and they put up a fight against Clemson. 

Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27)

Projected Matchups: Louisiana (ESPN), Texas Tech (247 Sports, Sporting News)

Florida appeared in the Birmingham Bowl once back in January 2015, beating East Carolina, 28-20. I clarify the month because the following season had the bowl game played in December of the same calendar year. 

The more fun projection for this game is Louisiana, Napier’s old school. Florida is 5-0 against them all-time, and Napier would love to extend that streak to cap off the season. He needs to be careful. The Ragin’ Cajuns are still the top team in the Sun Belt, and that would be a nightmare of an upset. 

According to Winsipedia, Florida has never played Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are currently 6-4 on the season. 

Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27)

Projected Matchup: Arizona State (CBS Sports)

Like with the Gasparilla Bowl, Florida fans are probably still scarred by the blowout loss in the Las Vegas Bowl a couple years back. It’s currently the only bowl appearance under Napier - albeit one of two potential bids.  

Oregon State throttled them 30-3. A field goal by Adam Mihalek kept the shutout streak intact. 

Arizona State is one of the stronger opponents Florida is projected to face. They’ve had a good inaugural season in the Big 12. They’re currently 8-2 and third in the conference. While they aren’t ranked in the College Football Playoff poll (as of Nov. 18), they’re ranked 21st in the latest AP Poll. 

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)

Projected Matchups: Michigan (ESPN), Nebraska (Athlon Sports) 

Florida has yet to play in the Music City Bowl. It’s an SEC tie-in bowl. It’s just never lined up. 

It feels like fans will take any bowl game this season, but one of the matchups could potentially cause some eye rolls. Michigan? Again? For a time, Florida couldn’t get away from this team. At least they finally won 41-18 in the 2018 Peach Bowl - Mullen’s first season as head coach. 

While it’s normally scary to play the defending national champs, Michigan has not defended its title in the slightest. The post-Harbaugh is off to a 5-5 start with all five wins coming at The Big House. So, the Gators will have that going for them.

Florida hasn’t played Nebraska since 1996. Every Gen X fan who suffered through this game would prefer it never come up, but the projections force me to. In the 1996 Fiesta Bowl, the de facto national championship, the Cornhuskers stomped Florida, 62-24. 

So, for that generation, there is a chance for redemption, though it can be argued they already got it the following season.