Florida vs. Charlotte: Picks and Predictions for Week 4
GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Before facing its onslaught of conference competition for the 2023 season sans Tennessee, which made its way to The Swamp last weekend only to be upset by the Gators, No. 25 Florida must handle its business at home against Charlotte on Saturday to sustain the crucial momentum it has generated with back-to-back victories.
Good luck finding someone who believes UF won't get it done.
Florida is favored to beat Charlotte by 27.5 points in Week 4, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is currently set at 48.5 points.
Find All Gators' picks and predictions for the Gators' matchup with the 49ers below.
Alex Shepherd (3-0): Florida 38, Charlotte 17
It has been confirmed: Joe Milton III can indeed lose in Florida.
The Gators stunned a ranked Tennessee squad in The Swamp last Saturday with a dominant victory that reverberated through the college football landscape. Florida will now look to continue its positive momentum against a struggling Charlotte 49ers team led by a familiar face.
Gator fans will likely remember the name Jalon Jones. The dual-threat quarterback out of Richmond, Virginia, originally committed to play for Florida out of high school before ultimately transferring from the program in the spring of 2019. Following multiple stints on various teams, including one season with Deion Sanders’ Jackson State squad, Jones landed with the 49ers in early 2023, reuniting him with his one-time high school coach, Biff Poggi.
Charlotte deploys a run-first style offense that has recently become reliant on a dual-quarterback system. Sophomore quarterback Trexler Ivey has seemingly taken over the majority of the passing duties, as Jones had only completed 58.5% of his attempts this season. While Ivey doesn’t possess the mobility that Jones does, he has shown the ability to accurately deliver passes. Ivey struggled in limited action during the 2022 season but is currently completing 75.8% of his passes over his last two games, albeit on far fewer attempts than the likes of Graham Mertz, who currently sits at No. 8 in the country for completion percentage (75.3%). On the rushing side of the ball, the 49ers average 144.3 yards per game (No. 79 in the FBS), led by none other than Jones himself, who averages 6.1 yards per carry.
Where the 49ers have struggled mightily is on the defensive side of the ball. It is currently giving up 422 yards per game to opposing offenses, ranking No. 108 in the country. Despite only being three games into his tenure with Charlotte, Poggi recently stated he is "on a warpath", publicly decrying his coordinators and their performances as he suggested he may be open to making changes this early in the season.
All of this to say, a struggling 49ers program will now be asked to face its biggest test yet against a Gators team that has seemingly found its stride. This game should serve as the final opportunity for Billy Napier and his team to iron out any remaining issues before SEC play resumes, namely the continued woes on special teams. For a program that has a strong history of superior kickers like Eddy Pineiro, Evan McPherson and Caleb Sturgis, the past three weeks have been almost unbearable to watch. It will be interesting to see if sophomore Trey Smack will take over all kicking duties from a struggling Adam Mihalek, who has yet to show the consistency needed to be trusted when it matters most. Mihalek is currently 1-3 on field goals this year and 62.5% for his career.
While I don’t believe this will be as big of a blowout as the McNeese State game, I feel the Gators will win this one in convincing fashion and roll into Lexington 3-1.
Zach Goodall (2-1): Florida 41, Charlotte 6
Florida made a huge statement in Week 3 with its upset victory over No. 11 Tennessee, vaulting into the AP Top 25 for the first time since losing to the Volunteers at Knoxville a year ago.
The Gators have also made me eat crow over my last two predictions. While I got the end result right in Week 2, I put my belief that Florida would be unable to reach 40 points offensively against an FCS squad in ink and was proven incorrect. I then failed to pick UF to pull off its Week 3 upset.
So, consider me all in this week. I've got Florida covering the spread and handling its business against a Charlotte team struggling under first head coach Biff Poggi to the point that he has openly criticized his coaching staff three games into his tenure, although he walked his comments back this week.
Graham Mertz will deliver another 70% completion rate and his first performance with two passing touchdowns in orange and blue. Freshman Andy Jean's will catch one of them for his first career touchdown. But Florida's running game will remain the focal point with Trevor Etienne, Montrell Johnson Jr. and Treyaun Webb each finding the end zone and combining for at least 200 rushing yards as a trio.
The Gators' first team-ish defense — expect plenty of rotation — will pitch a shut-out with the 49ers scoring two field goals only when it becomes clear the second team has taken over. The pass rush will come to life with a multi-sack day involving defensive lineman Caleb Banks and freshmen edge rushers Kelby Collins and TJ Searcy.
And, perhaps most importantly, sophomore Trey Smack will connect on each of his field goal attempts, including a 50+ yard try, in his first start as Florida's placekicker.
Brandon Carroll (2-1): Florida 45, Charlotte 6
On the heels of an emotional victory over Tennessee last weekend, the Gators will play host to Biff Poggi’s Charlotte 49ers on Saturday night.
The matchup presents an opportunity for the young Florida team to climb down from the high of defeating the nation’s No. 11 team, refocusing on the future, rather than the past, moving forward.
I think the unit may start slow, but ultimately regain its traction to produce another convincing victory.
The Gators' rushing attack, led by Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr., will maintain the success it has seen over the past two weeks despite the makeshift offense line created by Micah Mazzccua and Dameion George Jr.’s first-half suspensions and Kingsley Eguakun’s injury absence.
Rushing for over 250 yards, the unit will prove stout as the Gators' offense ticks at a high level within its identity. Quarterback Graham Mertz will post his fourth-straight performance of over 70% completion to begin his UF career as a complementary piece to the smooth attack.
Florida’s defense will make it difficult for the run-first Charlotte offense to find its groove on the ground, likely deploying a spy to ensure Jalon Jones can’t find chunk gains on quarterback keepers, to force a poor pass-protecting unit to throw the ball at a higher volume than desired.
The Gators will take advantage to come away with three-plus sacks on the day.
As a result, despite Charlotte’s above-average roster for the American Athletic Conference, Florida will simply overpower the 49ers to come away with another lopsided victory over an inferior opponent — as it produced in Week 2 against McNeese State.
Florida extends its winning streak to three, triumphing over Charlotte 45-6, to compound momentum before a difficult matchup on the road against Kentucky next weekend.
Conner Clarke (2-1): Florida 38, Charlotte 6
Florida is set to return to the Swamp Saturday night to take on Charlotte, freshly removed from a major rivalry win against then No. 11 Tennessee in Week 3.
The Gators struggled to sustain momentum following big wins last year, and the question that remains to be answered is, can this year’s team turn that around?
While I don’t think the game against Charlotte will provide an honest answer, it’s more likely to come next week on the road against Kentucky, they can make steps in the right direction on Saturday.
With more than half of the starting offensive line out for at least the first half and several players on both sides of the ball banged up following last week’s game. I fully expect the Gators to come out with a similar game plan to what we saw against McNeese State two weeks ago, leaning on the rushing attack, trying to shorten the game and doing their best to get out healthy.
Trevor Etienne is coming off a career game and should be able to rack up from yards in the first half as UF tries to build an early lead and put this one away before halftime. Montrell Johnson looked to be a bit hobbled late in the game against Tennessee, so I don’t know how much we will see him. Should he be limited, true freshman Treyaun Webb would earn an opportunity to show was he’s got in the tank.
The aspect of the game that I will be most intrigued by will be Florida's special teams. Adam Mihalek was pulled early in the game last week against Tennessee after missing a field goal and an extra point. While the extra point miss can partially be accredited to the lack of protection from the line, it was a miss nonetheless.
Trey Smack came in, much to the delight of Florida fans, and hit every extra point as well as a 27-yard field goal. Will Smack get the entirety of the kicking duties this weekend? That remains to be seen as the depth chart that was released on Wednesday had an "or" between the two kickers.
I think it should be Smack's job from here on out but we shall see what happens under the lights Saturday night.
Offensively for Charlotte, the 49ers have used two quarterbacks this season — one in which Gator fans are familiar with, Jalon Jones, who leads the 49ers in rushing this year with 196 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries. He has thrown for 252 yards and two touchdowns, but has also tossed three interceptions and owns a less-than-ideal completion percentage of 58.5% through three games.
Florida’s defense under new coordinator Austin Armstrong has been better than expected to this point in the season but has yet to be tested by a truly dynamic running threat behind center for four quarters. After observing the game plan and what Armstrong was able to draw up last weekend, I don't expect UF to have much trouble. The unit has done a great job of executing, making tackles and forcing teams into bad situations that allow Florida's defensive line and linebackers to rattle the passer.
At the end of the day, the talent gap and athleticism should take over and the Gators should win this game comfortably.
Cam Parker (2-1): Florida 45, Charlotte 10
A tune-up game two weeks ago against McNeese State was just what the doctor ordered to prep Florida for its matchup against Tennessee. And now, the Gators get one more before going full steam ahead into SEC play.
In recent years, Florida's struggled in games following big wins, but this season feels different. In front of another sold-out crowd at night, the Gators should be much of the same team from the McNeese State game two weeks ago.
Offensively, expect Graham Mertz to complete a high percentage of his passes while Florida looks to establish the run early with Trevor Etienne, Montrell Johnson and Treyaun Webb. Once the lead is established, expect a plethora of backups and reserves, including Jack Miller III and Max Brown, to see the field.
Defensively, Florida faces a familiar name at quarterback in 2019 signee Jalon Jones. A running threat, Jones leads the 49ers with 196 yards and two scores on the ground. That being said, the Gators' defense should be able to continue its dominance from the last two weeks. Like the offense, expect to see plenty of reserves defensively once a comfortable lead is established.
Really, there are only two questions. First, can special teams show any improvement? Expect to see both Trey Smack and Adam Mihalek kicking, but considering Smack's performance last week, it seems like placekicking will be his job to lose on Saturday.
Second, can Florida cover the spread, or will it suffer another bad beat from a late touchdown? Riding high from last week's win, the Gators should be able to cover the 28.5-point spread.
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