Mullen Preaches, Defines Run Game Efficiency for Florida Gators' Offense

Florida's run game wasn't as disappointing a season ago to Dan Mullen as it was to others. He believes the team's rushing efficiency, rather, is something that can be built upon.

Photo: Florida Gators running back Nay'Quan Wright; Credit: University of Florida athletic association

As Florida transitions from pocket passer Kyle Trask to dual-threat Emory Jones at quarterback this offseason, a hot topic for debate has been whether or not the Gators can improve upon what was considered a lackluster rushing performance last season.

The thing is, not everyone believes UF was mediocre at running the football a year ago. In fact, head coach Dan Mullen believes it was quite the opposite. 

"Last year I thought was our most efficient, was our best running year, even though like the numbers weren't big," Mullen said on Monday. "I judge things off efficiency."

Judging Florida's run game by the eye test left something to be desired undoubtedly. However, Mullen brings up a fair point when you look beyond the box score and into deeper analytics. And it aligns with a point he's made several times before.

Yes, Florida's 131.3 rushing yards per game in 2020 were underwhelming, ranking 11th in the SEC. The Gators' eighth-ranking (SEC) 4.3 yards per carry was a bit more encouraging and actually outpaced 2019's production by a tenth of a yard, but was not totally dependable. Performances such as the Gators' 17-carry, 19-yard showing against Tennessee and 26-carry, 54-yard result against Alabama in the SEC Championship were disappointing, leaving onlookers curious how the team could improve toting the rock moving forward.

Rushing production is about more than yards per carry, though. Mullen continued to emphasize that UF's rushing efficiency was just fine, even if the basic stats didn't show it. 

"You don't go yards per attempt. You go each individual play," Mullen described grading rushing efficiency. "Then you're looking at percentage of plays where you rush for four yards plus, but then there is situations and other situations that it's less than that. So it's whatever your rushing gain is on a specific play within a specific situation, okay, and then within that situation, the percentage of the times that you are efficient."

This can basically be summed up as rushing game success rate, which CFBGraphs.com measures by expected points added (a measure of play value taking into account down, distance, and yards to goal on a given play) per rushing play. 

By those analytics, UF ranked seventh in the SEC and 43rd in the FBS last year in EPA/rush at 0.021. That figure stands far ahead of Florida's -0.108 EPA/rush in 2019 (11th in SEC/99th in FBS), but a bit behind the Gators' 0.051 mark (fourth in SEC/27th in FBS) in 2018.

Running backs Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett led a bruising backfield en route to a combined 1,602 yards two years ago, with Jones and quarterback Feleipe Franks offering a complementary 514 yards.

Even though the idea that UF owned its most efficient rushing attack to date under Mullen in 2020 is false, the premise that Florida ran the ball efficiently last year is fair. No one can reasonably expect Florida to replicate its No. 9-ranking EPA/pass play with a new quarterback in 2021, though, meaning the Gators will need to be more than efficient on the ground in the future.

Last season, Florida's leading rusher finished with 503 yards, that being rising senior Dameon Pierce. As Mullen suggests frequently, though: Florida was a pass-heavy team in 2020. Now, the team "can be anything we wanna be" as it identifies its strengths, believing that last year's efficiency is something that can be built upon.

"You really can be anything you want to be you can just, you know, what you're going to focus on, how you're going to focus it, how you're going to build it, how you're going to put people in there to go, to go do it," said Mullen. 

"We're in the evaluation stage of what we're going to be. I mean, heck, I can go run the wishbone if we want to, I'll get done. You know, I mean you can do anything you want to do," he continued.

Currently, Mullen and running backs coach Greg Knox are tasked with evaluating what Pierce, veteran Malik Davis, third-year back Nay'Quan Wright, former Miami five-star recruit Lorenzo Lingard, and star Clemson transfer Demarkcus Bowman have to offer the Gators' rushing offense in 2021. Jones, as well.

Although it is worth remembering that Florida is currently in its spring practice phase, Mullen does want to see more from his running backs in terms of their development.

"I think we've got to get a lot better. I think the biggest thing we're missing right now is our guys, the consistency of performance, little mental errors, not just on the offensive line but just everywhere," said Mullen. "Too many small mistakes being made with guys, which that happens sometimes in spring because you're worried about, 'Am I making plays, am I competing for a position? I'm learning what we're doing.' That loses the attention to detail on some small things."

Time will tell if Mullen and the Gators can turn efficiency into production in the run game, particularly as the unit must continue to recognize its deficiencies and correct them in spring and fall camp. But if you ask the fourth-year head coach, Florida certainly has something to build upon in that department.