Florida Gators Expectations - Embracing Underdog Role

For the first time in recent memory, the University of Florida heads into a football season a decided underdog in eight of its twelve games.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat, but also coaching with nothing to lose. / Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY

For the first time in recent memory, the University of Florida heads into a football season a decided underdog in eight of its twelve games. DraftKings places the over/under on win total for the Gators at a paltry 4.5. Pundits from Bristol, Conn. to Atlanta look ready to play a dirge for a season that hasn't started yet. 

As a result, a palpable sense of worry flows through the fanbase. Cursed with an unbelievably tough schedule, the Gators, in the eyes of many, appear headed for a disastrous 2024 season. Yet, something feels different. No one told the football team that their season ended before it started. Ignore those folks and enjoy the games ahead. 

The Schedule

Make no mistake, Florida will play a brutal schedule against some of the SEC's top teams. During the month of November, Florida plays Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. Not to mention, Tennessee and Texas A&M show up early in the season. 

On paper, all of these teams possess top-tier offenses, defenses, and coaching. Their rosters bubble over with blue-chip prospects and All-Americans. Correspondingly, NFL scouts representing all thirty-two franchises will attend these matchups. In a way, the schedule makers will end up helping the Gators more than anything else. 

The Hotseat

As profiled here and everywhere, Billy Napier needs a great showing to keep his job. He knows this, and fully understands the situation at hand. In all honesty, that fact should help the Gators. Napier comprehends the deal. In movie imagery, he will make his last stand in The Swamp. 

With pundits already choosing his successor via content, and those coaches looking at Zillow for homes in Alachua County, no play drawn looks unreasonable. With a job to lose, but a $32-million buyout, Napier can coach with a clear mind. The worst the school can do is fire him and pay an eight-figure buyout. No opponent will rattle Napier and his team. 

Upside

Florida enters the season with a seasoned quarterback, within a system he thrives. Graham Mertz fits the scheme. Only three of Florida's opponents will return a starting quarterback. As a result, many will use this season as a way of grasping a system. 

Meanwhile, Mertz will head in to games with a feeling that his opponent will not. Moreover, six of Florida's games occur in The Swamp. With 89,000 people, a majority clad in blue and orange, home-field becomes that much more important.

Opponent Expectations Burden

People continue to underdiscuss what Florida's opponents will face. Georgia, Ole Miss, Florida State, TAMU, and Tennessee all have playoff expectations. Probability being what they are, a couple of those teams will lose multiple games. Under those circumstances, their fate changes from a certain home game to possibly playing on the road or potential omission from the process altogether. 

One of these opposing will exhibit some variation of posterior puckering, making bad decisions, leading to an upset by Florida. Since 1988, only three Gator seasons ended with five or fewer wins. Somehow, somewhere, probably multiple teams will fall. Plus, the karmic nature of college football dictates conference chaos.