Florida Gators Four Key Matchups vs. LSU, Plus A Look at the Run Game

Which four personnel matchups will Florida need to win on Saturday against LSU?

The goal-line stand of 2016, the fake field goal of 2010, the pick-six of 2018, the tip to Percy Harvin in 2008. Those descriptions alone should invoke memories of classic Florida-LSU matchups over the last 15 years.

In all of those matchups, both the Gators and Tigers were ranked teams with lots to play for. In 2020, that won’t be the case. For Florida, it’s another chance for the SEC East division champions to smooth out some kinks before facing Alabama, while, for LSU, it’s one game closer to being done with the season.

This is also the second time I’ve written this piece on LSU. Back in October, I was listing off how the Gators need to get off the field on third down, stop Terrance Marshall and contain tight end Arik Gilbert. Well, a lot has changed since then.

Florida is a respectable sixth in the SEC on third downs, and since the loss to Texas A&M, Gator opponents have only converted 26% of third downs in the last five games. Marshall opted out of the season, and Gilbert opted out on Wednesday according to The Athletic. 

By no means should Florida take LSU lightly, they still have a fair amount of talent, and have shown, at times, the ability to move the ball well. However, this is a game the Gators should easily win. Here are the matchups I’m watching out for when LSU and Florida take the field on Saturday night.

Kyle Trask vs. LSU's secondary

Trask should shred this unit. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t. Out of 127 FBS teams playing this season, LSU ranks 125th in passing yards per game allowed with 313 per game. Trask, meanwhile, is 2nd in the nation in passing yards per game with 360. I’d call this a recipe for success.

Against Alabama, there were numerous coverage breakdowns for LSU. It wasn’t just being beaten by Devonta Smith repeatedly, the Tigers secondary was lost most of the night and left receivers wide open numerous times for Mac Jones.

With how sophisticated the Florida passing attack is, how deep the talent is among the pass catchers on the team, I don’t see why Trask can’t match or exceed Jones’ 385 yard, four touchdown performance.

“They've got DBs that can cover on the backend and a big, physical group up front,” head coach Dan Mullen said. “So, when you look at them I think they've had some up-and-down games, and with a young team.”

Time in the pocket shouldn’t be an issue either, as the Tigers are 58th in the nation in total sacks, and only got to the Alabama quarterbacks once. Trask should have plenty of time to pick the LSU secondary apart.

Florida's run game vs. LSU's front seven

The struggle has been real for the Florida run game since they rushed for over 200 yards against Arkansas, and even in that game, the Gators only averaged 4.6 yards per rush. They averaged 4.3 yards against Vanderbilt, 4.2 yards against Kentucky, and a lowly 1.1 yards per rush against Tennessee.

LSU is decent against the run, allowing 156 yards a game, putting them at 58th in the nation. It won’t be easy sledding for the Gators on the ground, but they should have a better showing than what they did against Tennessee a week ago.

The offensive line did not play well, yes. They didn’t move the line of scrimmage much, they didn’t reach the second level and prevent linebackers from filling run fits, and they missed assignments.

“We had a couple of missed blocks at Tennessee, just with different blitzes and stuff we should have picked up,” senior left tackle Stone Forsythe said. “But, we know we can run the ball when we need to, so, maybe that game is coming down the road or what, but we can do it."

However, the O-line should not take all the blame. Tennessee ran a lot of run blitzes through holes left by pulling guards, and this threw off run schemes. One that stood out was on the Gators second drive of the game where Florida tried running a counter to the left side. Stewart Reese pulled from his right-guard spot, and Keon Zipperer was coming across the formation behind Reese to lead block for Malik Davis.

Tennessee blitzed a linebacker through the A-gap where Reese came from and blew up Zipperer into Davis before he could get across the formation. Davis had to backpedal and try to get outside, only to find the man Zipperer was supposed to block, unblocked.

There was also timid running and poor vision at times from the Florida backs. Dameon Pierce wasn’t getting downhill quickly and dancing in the backfield some before hitting the hole. This, partially, appears it be from a lack of trust in the offensive line, similar to the issue Lamical Perine dealt with in 2019. 

For example, on Pierce's first run of the game, it looks like there's a crease for him to pick up a respectable gain.

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However, Pierce stutter-stepped in the backfield and allowed the play side linebacker to close into the gap.

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If Pierce hits the hole with power and toughness we've seen from him throughout his career, he probably runs through the linebacker and make's it through the line of scrimmage before the hole collapses.

Nay'Quan Wright also had his share of issues. He seemed to try and bounce runs when the intended rush lanes were open and a few occasions.

For example, there was a first-and-10 play mid-way through the third quarter, and Wright opened the drive with a straight dive play. 

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Tennessee brought a run blitz, but it was picked up well by the offensive line. There was a massive hole through the left-side B-gap that appeared to be the hole the play was supposed to go to. 

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If Wright hits it, it’s a 10-plus yard play, especially since Trevon Grimes got an excellent block on the defensive back downfield. Instead, Wright stutters in the backfield and tries bouncing the play out wide to the left and gets stuffed for a loss

“We didn’t execute very cleanly in the run game, but we didn’t really try to run, offensive coordinator Brian Johnson said. “Some people would argue we probably tried to run it too much. It’s a fine line. It’s a balancing act. I’m pretty sure if we really tried to scheme up a bunch of stuff in the run game we could manage to be OK.”

Between general poor blocking and poor vision from the backs, coupled with an objectively good game plan from Tennessee, it was tough for Florida to get going on the ground. We’ll see if those issues are fixed heading into this weekend’s game.

Pressuring LSU quarterbacks

With no Marshall, and now no Gilbert as he opted out of the season as well, the pass-catching options for quarterbacks T.J. Finley and Max Johnson have dwindled drastically. 

Since Myles Brennan went down after the third week of the season, the two have split time at quarterback. Finley has started all five games since, but Johnson has played a significant amount when Finley has struggled. The two combine for a 57% completion percentage, 1,336 yards (267 yards per game), six touchdowns and five interceptions (although all five are from Finley).

It doesn’t help that both quarterbacks are working with one of the worst offensive lines in the nation. The Tigers give up 2.75 sacks per game, putting them at 98th nationally. They allowed five sacks to Alabama and three to Texas A&M the week before. Now, the LSU O-line has to play the team that leads the SEC in sacks.

Florida has recorded 29 sacks this season, just over three a game. They had six a week ago versus Tennessee, and continue to get better as the weeks go along. The thing with the Gators pass rush, is it’s not just one guy getting to the quarterback. All six sacks a week ago were recorded by six different players and not one player on the team has more than four sacks on the season. Zach Carter leads the way with four.

“We know going against a young quarterback..., a lot of times they get rattled in the pocket, and things like that, they get uncomfortable in the pocket,” Carter said. “So, we know if we do our job, and get a lot of pressure on him, we can affect the game.”

Finley more than likely will start, and he’s been abysmal under pressure. He’s errant with the ball or takes too many sacks because he simply doesn’t throw the ball away. He’s somewhat mobile, but he doesn’t have the escapability that quarterbacks Florida played previously and if Florida continues to rush the passer with a collapse-the-pocket mentality, it’ll be a rough day for the freshman quarterback.

Letdown vs. packing it in

Florida is in a classic letdown spot. The SEC East title is clinched, Alabama looms on the horizon, Mullen admitted he’s already put together an advanced scouting team to study the Crimson Tide and prepare for the SEC title game. Will the Gators come out flat because of this and allow LSU to hang around?

I say no, for two reasons: One, it’s LSU and no matter how bad the Tigers are, the two teams don’t like each other, and Florida smells blood in the water with LSU struggling.

“We’re coming out ready to dominate this week,” Carter said.

After LSU pulled out a win in Death Valley last year and the crowd mocked the Gator chomp, there’s plenty of motivation for the Gators to obliterate the depleted Tigers.

Not to mention, LSU seems like they’re waving the white flag on the season. Between Marshall and Gilbert being gone, the secondary playing like they’d rather be in a chemistry class than on the gridiron, Florida has a chance to really pour it on.

Not to mention, there will be plenty of high profile recruits in the Swamp for the 2021 class that the Gators will want to make an impression on.

SI99 player and 17th ranked prospect in the nation, linebacker Xavian Sorey will be in attendance (and remember these are all unofficial visits, recruits are paying themselves to attend the games and no contact with coaches is allowed). As will 41st-ranked player, safety Terrion Arnold, and 61st ranked player, offensive tackle Tristan Leigh. These are guys the Gators can make big impressions on with early signing day on Dec 16.