Florida Gators vs. Georgia: Key Matchups That Could Decide the Game

Which personnel matchups could be the deciding factor when the Florida Gators host the Missouri Tigers on Saturday?

The unofficial SEC East championship game is on the doorstep. Despite the lack of pregame partying this year in Jacksonville, there’s sure to be plenty Gator fans have to drink about leading up to their annual tussle with Georgia.

Slowly, Florida has closed the gap with Georgia, going from a 36-17 loss in 2018 to a frustrating 24-17 defeat a season ago. Now, in 2020, it’s about as good an opportunity for Dan Mullen to best Kirby Smart for the first time in the orange and blue.

The matchup couldn’t be featuring teams that utilize polar opposite strengths. For Florida, it’s all offense. The Gators rank 15th nationally in total offense, averaging 476.5 yards per game. Even better, Florida is averaging 7.5 yards per play, good for the 5th best spot in the country. Florida is also averaging 42 points a game.

For Georgia, it’s all defense. The Bulldogs are allowing 16.2 points per game (12th nationally) and just over 300 yards per game (13th nationally).

Something is going to give. Here are the matchups that will decide who takes firm control of the SEC East, and has a clear path to Atlanta for the SEC title game.

QB Kyle Trask vs. Georgia's secondary

If Georgia has a weakness on defense, it’s the secondary. Mac Jones and Alabama shredded the Georgia secondary in Tuscaloosa less than a month ago, throwing for 417 yards and four touchdowns.

It isn’t every season that Florida gets compared to Alabama in any category, but the Gator passing attack is on the same level as the Crimson Tide this season. Both the Tide and the Gators are in the top-10 in the nation in passing yards per game, and average near or over 10 yards an attempt. Even Tennessee’s Jarrett Guarantano had some success against the Georgia secondary, throwing two first-half touchdowns on downfield passes.

The Gators won’t also have to worry about All-American safety Richard LeCounte roaming the back end of the Georgia defense on Saturday. LeCounte was hospitalized after an auto accident last Saturday and will miss several weeks with non-life-threatening injuries. In 2019, LeCounte was responsible for covering Kyle Pitts.

"Obviously, you don't want to see anyone get into an accident like that," offensive coordinator Brian Johnson said. "But, they recruit well, so it's not like they won't have anybody that's not talented come out there and go play."

Pitts is the key for Trask and the Gators in this game. Georgia could not stop Pitts with single coverage in 2019 and they had to double Pitts to manage the shifty tight-end. This led to Freddie Swain having a massive game, hauling in eight catches for 91 yards and a score.

With the emergence of Kadarius Toney as a pass-catcher (22 catches, 297 yards, six touchdowns), he may be the guy that gets an increased volume of targets, much like we’ve seen over the Gators last couple games. Toney will probably have Georgia STAR Marc Webb lined up against him in the slot, and this will be a matchup that tests Toney’s route running quite a bit.

"He demands double teams," defensive coordinator Todd Grantham said of Toney. "But, you say, that when he gets, you know, the ball in his hands; still made more than one guy miss so he's a problem and you know I'm certainly glad that I don't have to go execute that question."

However, it all comes down to Trask. He’s been deadly accurate this season, completing over 68% of his passes, and showing plenty of arm strength on passes downfield to fit balls into tight windows. He’ll need to be incredibly sharp to slice up the Dawg defense.

Florida's offensive line vs. Georgia's front four

Along with LeCounte, Georgia will be without two key defensive lineman. Starting defensive tackle Jordan Davis is out with an elbow injury and depth piece Julian Rochester tore his ACL versus Kentucky.

Georgia always has depth in the trenches, but losing two key pieces in Davis and Rochester is huge. Couple that with what is a vastly improved Gator offensive line, and this battle went from a place where Georgia could dominate, to a place where Florida could hold their own.

Florida's pass protection is holding up well for Trask thus far. The Gator offensive line is giving up one sack a game, good for the 9th least in the nation. They’ll face their toughest test Saturday, with or without the missing defensive tackles. Georgia averages roughly 3.5 sacks per game, the highest total in the SEC.

In 2019, Florida only allowed two sacks, but they were costly. They turned promising drives into punts, and both were made worse by Trask back peddling and making the yardage loss worse. Trask has significantly improved his ability to recognize pressure and cut his losses, yardage wise, and get back to the line of scrimmage to avoid taking bad sacks.

However, the run blocking has been up and down. The biggest concern for Florida in the ground game is on plays where guards and tackles pull. Missouri doesn’t have an elite defensive line, but it’s quality. On plays where the Gators tried pulling lineman, the unblocked defensive lineman behind the play made tackles on a way to a consistent basis. This won’t bode well against the speed Georgia has on the defensive line.

Florida's pass rush vs. QB Stetson Bennett

Lack of pass rush, and mainly actually getting to the quarterback, is the biggest hurdle for Todd Grantham and his defense come Saturday. Jake Fromm shredded the Gators in 2019 when under pressure, and no play embodied that more than the 3rd and 8 play with less than three minutes to go in the game. Fromm took a shot from a blitzing linebacker, but delivered a strike to his tight end Eli Wolfe to move the sticks and seal the win for Georgia.

Florida needs to pressure Bennett repeatedly, because he’s been poor under pressure this season. Both interceptions he threw versus Kentucky came while under duress, and considering Bennett is 5-foot-11 and throws from a ¾ arm slot, a lot of balls come out low and can be batted down.

Florida needs to push the pocket on Bennett and not let him break contain, because he is good at rolling out to his right and he was able to extend plays against Alabama in the first half that led to some scoring drives for Georgia.

Brenton Cox Jr. is one of the most important players for the Gators. The former Georgia player needs to have his best game Saturday. He played his most complete game, both rushing the passer and defending the run against Missouri, and he needs to continue his upward trend.

The Gators average 2.75 sacks a game, and if they can overachieve and put Bennett on his back at least three times, that may be enough to give the Gator offense more possessions and thus chances to score.

Florida's offense vs. the clock

In 2019, Georgia had three drives that took up a combined 18 minutes and 36 seconds. They ended with over 11 minutes more of possession than the Gators, and it kept the Florida offense from being able to get back into the game. Not to mention, the Gators final scoring drive also took over six minutes, and it gave the defense only one chance to get Georgia off the field at the end of the game.

Florida has had trouble winning the time of possession battle this season. They had a deficit of 10 or more minutes against South Carolina and Texas A&M, and it led to the loss against the Aggies.

The key to this: getting off the field on third downs. In 2018, Georgia was 8-of-14 on the “money down”, and they were 8-of-12 in 2019. It’s vital Florida keeps Georgia below 50% conversion this year.

Up until Missouri third down had been a massive issue. But, they improved significantly last Saturday, keeping the Tigers to a 20% conversion rate.

On the flip side, this means Florida also can’t go three-and-out. Florida started 0-of-5 on third down versus Missouri, and they only got away with it because of how well the defense played. This can’t happen against Georgia, because the Dawgs will make them pay for it.

"I think the big thing is staying on the field, obviously, you gotta be on the field to score points," Johnson said. "You got to get first downs. All right, keep the chains moving and once you get down in the red zone you got to make contested type plays in the red zone to come away with seven and not kick field goals.

Florida was 2-of-9 on third down last year. If they can get that number up around 50%, the Gators should be in good shape.