Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs: Picks and Predictions
Like teams aiming to narrow the talent gap between their roster and that of the Bulldogs, Florida is looking to taper the scoring margin of its annual rivalry matchup with Georgia after losing the past two by a combined 49 points.
In an ideal world for the Gators, they'd knock off the nation's No. 1 team and their top rival in Jacksonville on Saturday. Not only would such a win taste sweet to those who achieve it, but it would suggest that the Billy Napier era of Florida football has gotten on the right track. That UF is capable of beating anyone.
Of course, this would be the reality if Florida won against the back-to-back reigning national champions. Oddsmakers, and most of the All Gators staff, don't believe that will be the case in Week 9.
Georgia is considered a 13.5-point favorite over Florida as of Friday morning, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under, which was pulled on Thursday, has been re-listed at 49.5 points.
Find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida vs. Georgia below.
Alex Shepherd (6-1): Florida 27, Georgia 24
In a true David vs. Goliath-esque matchup, Florida is tasked with taking on perennial SEC behemoth Georgia in Jacksonville this Saturday. The Bulldogs enter the matchup as the No. 1 team in the nation, a spot it has held countless times during each of the last three seasons which included hoisting back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022.
Therefore, it is no surprise that the Dawgs are a clear favorite in this game. However, could the Gators have something in store that dethrones the Kings of the East?
Working in Florida’s favor is the absence of Georgia’s generational tight end talent, Brock Bowers. With Bowers unavailable for the matchup, the pass-first Bulldogs offense (ranking No. 5 nationally) will look toward two key wideouts: Senior Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and junior Dominic Lovett.
UGA quarterback Carson Beck has proven to be an incredibly efficient field general in his first season as a starter. He currently sits just three spots behind Florida quarterback Graham Mertz nationally in completion percentage, with 73.6% of his passes landing on target. Additionally, Beck holds a spot within the top 15 nationally in passing yards per game (306.71) and passing efficiency (163.81). Georgia’s rushing game is no slouch either, averaging 172.4 yards per game.
On defense, the news doesn’t get much better for Florida fans. The Bulldogs currently hold the No. 6 ranked defense nationally and sit in the top 10 in multiple other categories including No. 9 in least passing yards allowed, No. 10 in rushing defense and No. 1 in opponent third down conversion percentage.
All of this to say, do the Gators really have a chance? I think yes.
Florida has been an inconsistent team, I know. But when it shows up to play, it feels as if they can take on anyone in the country.
In my opinion, this will by far be the most challenging game of the year and will be a measuring stick for how far behind Florida is in its rebuild. However, this is also the most vulnerable the defending champions have appeared in recent memory. If Florida plays its best football to date, I can see some wild things happening.
I expect a healthy dose of the Mertz-to-Ricky Pearsall connection with Eugene Wilson III playing a massive role in moving the offense down the field. With nothing to lose, I think Florida does just enough to pull off the massive upset and send the Bulldogs home with their tails between their legs.
Brandon Carroll (6-1): Georgia 34, Florida 20
Unlike in years past, the Bulldogs have faltered out of the gate to allow undeserving opponents to stick around longer than they should against the star-studded roster Kirby Smart and Co. have built since he arrived in 2016. Georgia's endured slow starts against South Carolina, Auburn and Vanderbilt, allowing them to hang around or even lead heading into the halftime break.
They've returned from the locker room rejuvenated, producing a second half worthy of victory in all three contests. Still, the trend presents the Gators an opportunity to start quickly inside Everbank Stadium.
As a result, Graham Mertz and Co. are the first to post points on the scoreboard as he maintains his effectiveness through the air on the first drive and takes advantage of the added confidence to produce a few first-half scoring drives.
But, it ultimately won't be enough to down the top Dawgs.
If the annual bout's history is any indication, this matchup is decided in the trenches and via the run game. Georgia has a clear advantage there. I expect the Bulldogs to overpower Florida upfront, making it difficult for the Gators' rushing attack to find sustained success while opening wide holes for running back Daijun Edwards and his counterparts to exploit throughout the afternoon.
While the game will be more respectable than it has been in years past, with the Gators sticking within striking distance early, Florida isn't there from a talent standpoint — specifically in the trenches — to contend with Georgia down the stretch.
The Bulldogs will pull away late despite a valiant first-half effort from the Gators to cover the 13.5-point spread with a 34-20 victory.
You can watch Brandon's in-depth Florida-Georgia preview with Dawgs Daily Lead Editor Brooks Austin via Carroll's Cadence here.
Zach Goodall (5-2): Georgia 31, Florida 21
The Bulldogs are bound to lose at some point, right?
Considering UGA is 24 games into a winning streak, impacted by injuries offensively, and frankly not as dominant as its teams of its national championship-winning last two seasons, that question has prevailed since Georgia went on bye and began to prepare for Florida in Week 9.
The Gators' 41-point offensive explosion at South Carolina before their week off has only amplified the query ahead of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, paired with the news of Bulldogs' All-American tight end Brock Bowers' ankle surgery last week.
All of a sudden, Florida — 5-2, one win away from hitting the over on Vegas' 5.5-game win projection for its season — is gaining traction entering the matchup, believed by some to have a chance to upset its most hated rival, the best team in the country since 2021.
I'm not there yet. The combined record of teams Florida has beaten this year is 11-25.
Florida certainly looked improved against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, rebounding well from a bad loss at Kentucky and snapping a five-game streak of road losses in the process. But the Gators' performances in Lexington, and Salt Lake City against Utah, can't be forgotten about. They looked dysfunctional against respectable teams in hostile environments.
EverBank Stadium, although it will be split in half between orange-and-blue and red-and-black, qualifies as hostile. No. 1 Georgia is certainly respectable. A testament to the depth of UGA's roster, Bowers' replacement at tight end, redshirt freshman Oscar Delp, is tied for second on the team in touchdown receptions this season.
Even though multiple offensive line starters have dealt with injuries, Georgia has maintained a top-five rushing attack in the SEC and allowed only six sacks on the season.
I don't view Graham Mertz and Florida's offensive showings of its past two games as flukes. The unit, bolstered by receiver Tre Wilson and tight end Arlis Boardingham's emergence to pair with veteran receiver Ricky Pearsall in the passing game, can respond to the points Georgia will inevitably put on the board.
I just don't think it'll be enough, given UF's defensive struggles that have persisted since the Kentucky matchup.
Florida has struggled to make tackles weekly, has been gashed on the ground and has proven susceptible to explosive passing plays after shutting down Tennessee in Week 3.
61% of the 1,247 yards that Kentucky, Vanderbilt and South Carolina combined to gain against Florida were generated after contact, per Pro Football Focus, as those teams combined to force 36 missed tackles by the Gators. 53.7% of Georgia's total offensive production has been generated after contact this year.
Even without Bowers, Georgia's offense will take advantage of Florida's defensive deficiencies and any mistakes the unit makes. That's what will win the Bulldogs this game.
Conner Clarke (4-3): Georgia 31, Florida 20
When it comes to rivalry games, anything can happen. Throw the records out the window and watch two teams that circle this game on the calendar yearly battle it out in front of a sold-out crowd, split evenly right down the middle.
Since Florida’s last win in this storied rivalry back in 2020, Georgia has taken care of business in almost effortless fashion, winning both games by more than 20 points. In the last two years, the Bulldogs have been the unquestioned best team in football as they have recruited, coached, developed and played at elite levels on their way to back-to-back national titles.
Now enter the Dawgs of 2023, a team that has allowed lesser opponents to hang around early in games making them look a bit more vulnerable than in years prior.
This leaves a glimmer of hope that, should Georgia continue to sleepwalk through the early part of the game, Florida might be able to take advantage, so long Graham Mertz and the offense can continue to be efficient.
The Gators finally have their starting center, Kingsley Eguakun, back from injury as he is set to make just his third appearance of the 2023 season. Conversely, the Bulldogs will be without star tight end Brock Bowers, a loss for their offense that cannot be overstated.
However, the talent gap between Florida and Georgia still exists and I expect the Dawgs to take full advantage of it.
At the end of the day, Georgia is the better team from top to bottom and will prove as much on Saturday, even without its best player. Carson Beck has been very efficient and will look to get the ball to playmakers like Dominic Lovett and RaRa Thomas, while also leaning on a strong offensive line and run game that features a plethora of former blue-chip prospects at running back.
Cam Parker (4-3): Georgia 35, Florida 24
There's no question that the Florida football program took a major step forward two weeks ago against South Carolina. The Gators earned a rare win away from the Swamp and showed that they can consistently score points and even make a late comeback, something they weren't able to do against both Utah and Kentucky.
That being said, they face a completely different animal on Saturday: No. 1 Georgia. Historically, Kirby Smart has had Florida's number with only two losses in seven matchups. Not to mention, they've won back-to-back College Football Playoff titles and 24 consecutive games.
Even without Brock Bowers available, this is still Georgia's game to lose. It will ultimately be decided in the trenches, and for now, Georgia has the edge even with Florida getting center Kingsley Eguakun back.
I do expect Florida's offense to put up points throughout the game, and I absolutely wouldn't be surprised if Graham Mertz continues to completion a high percentage of passes with no interceptions.
However, he'll be facing one of the top defensive fronts in the country in Georgia. The Bulldogs allow an SEC-low 262.6 yards per game. It's hard to pick Florida in a game like this, especially after their struggles against Utah and Kentucky.
Yes, Florida did turn a corner against South Carolina, but the Gators' defense still showed that there's plenty of work to be done, and the offense had the benefit of playing one of the worst defenses in the SEC.
This is Georgia. The margin for error is too narrow, and the talent gap is still too wide for my comfort. That doesn't mean Florida can't make things interesting, though. Georgia has only covered a spread outright once this year, in its 51-13 thrashing of Kentucky.
Considering everything above, I expect this to be a game where Georgia either pulls away in the fourth quarter or Florida scores a late touchdown to make it seem closer than it was. The Bulldogs are simply the better team at the moment. Should Florida continue to recruit and develop at a high level, this rivalry could turn back in the Gators' favor.
For now, it's Georgia's to lose.
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