Keys to a Florida Gators Victory Over the Vanderbilt Commodores

Both Florida and Vanderbilt enter Week 12 with momentum. What must the Gators accomplish to secure a victory over the Commodores on Saturday?

Photo: Desmond Watson; Credit: Alex Shepherd

The Gators head into their matchup against the Commodores firing on all cylinders. 

Florida's offense had its second-highest scoring total over two games this season over the last two weeks, scoring 79 points in wins over Texas A&M and South Carolina, only behind the two-game stretch where they scored a combined 85 points against Eastern Washington and Tennessee. 

The Commodores enter the game sitting at 4-6 but fresh off their first SEC victory in 26 games, a winless streak that had dated back to 2019 ended when they beat No. 24 Kentucky in the dying minute of the game this past Saturday. The Commodores will surely come ready to play in hopes of accomplishing their first winning streak within the SEC in years. 

The Gators have all the pieces required to handily beat Vanderbilt, just as they did last week against the Gamecocks. Where can Florida exploit the best matchups against Vanderbilt?

The run defense has a chance to repeat greatness

Led by PFF's highest-rated run defender in Week 11, the Gators' run defense put on a clinic against South Carolina, allowing just 44 rushing yards for the entire game, thanks again to the stellar play of Gators defensive lineman Desmond Watson. 

On only nine run-defense snaps, Watson recorded 2.5 tackles, two of which were stops and he even forced and recovered a fumble. Linebacker Ventrell Miller was second-best on the Gators' run-defense unit, recording a run-defense grade of 74.5 after his four-tackle, three-stop day.

Vanderbilt barely escapes the title of possessing the worst run-blocking unit in the SEC, only ahead of South Carolina (which, to remind those reading, got decimated by the Gators to the tune of 374 yards last week), so there is a strong potential for Florida's run defense to rack up more accolades and momentum before ending the regular season in Tallahassee against the Seminoles' fourth-best rushing offense in FBS football.

To cripple the Commodores' offense, the Gators must stop running back Ray Davis. Davis enters the Week 12 matchup as the Commodore's highest-rated running back on the team, coming in with an overall grade of 82.0 and a run grade of 85.4. Davis has racked up 610 yards after contact on the season thus far and 19 runs of over 10 yards. 36.4% of Davis's runs are categorized as breakaways, and he has rushed for 46 first downs, which means stopping Davis could drastically slow the offense.

The Gators' offense is primed for another big day

The Gators have scored 35+ points in three of their last four games and are primed to continue the streak to three games in a row of 35+ points scored. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has been a significant contributor in this stretch, having his hand in 10 total touchdowns over the last four games.

Richardson has proven to be a dual-threat quarterback in as many weeks, scoring a touchdown through the air and on the ground in three of his last four games. Richardson will have his choice to either pick up yardage on the ground against a weak Commodores run defense or attack through the air where Vanderbilt has been pedestrian at best in coverage.

One Commodores defender, the Gators, must keep tabs on is linebacker Anfernee Orji. Orji is the highest-rated Vanderbilt defender against the run and sits third on the team in overall defensive grades at 71.6. Orji leads the Commodores' defense in quarterback pressures (13), tackles (71) and stops (38).

With a Vanderbilt defense letting up 35.2 points per game this season, the streak for 35+ points looks in good shape for the Gators.

Containing Vanderbilt wide receiver Will Sheppard

If there were to be a focal point of the Vanderbilt passing game, it would lie on wide receiver Will Sheppard. Sheppard comes in at a 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, which should pose a decent test for UF's defensive backs. 

Sheppard has crossed the 700-yard receiving mark this season and tacked on nine receiving touchdowns to go with them. When targeting Sheppard this season, quarterbacks have had an 84.7 NFL passer rating, peaking at 144.7 in week three against Northern Illinois. 

On the flip side, Sheppard has started a streak of games in which he committed a penalty, now standing at three games. Before this streak, Sheppard had not been credited with an offensive penalty this season. The easiest way to beat your opponent is for them to beat themselves.

Sheppard has been a chain-moving receiver for the Commodores all season, averaging a 10+ yard reception every game, and has a reception of over 20 yards in 80% of his games this season. With an average target depth or ADOT of 13.9 yards, Sheppard has been making his money beyond the sticks and has been a catalyst in keeping the Vanderbilt offense on the field.

Gators head coach Billy Napier was complimentary of Sheppard on Wednesday. acknowledging that he briefly recruited The Boot State product when he was in charge at Louisiana.

"I'm proud of the guy. He's really made the most of his opportunity at Vanderbilt, and he's a matchup player," Napier said. "He's got height, length and speed, one of those unique Louisiana athletes that gets overlooked. We made a living off of 'em, and he's another good example of that."

There aren't many weaknesses the Gators have when facing the Commodores this week, and if Florida plays as it has been in recent weeks, UF should have a firm grasp on this game from opening to the final whistle. 

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