Florida vs. LSU: Picks and Predictions for Week 11

All Gators staff picks and predictions for Florida vs. LSU.

Billy Napier will make his return to Louisiana in Week 11, set to take on the major program from an hour down the road during his tenure as Lafayette's head coach from 2018-21. 

Napier's Gators return to Death Valley for what might be their final biennial matchup in Baton Rouge with the Tigers due to the SEC's imminent expansion to 16 teams. Florida vs. LSU is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. 

LSU is favored by 14.5 points over Florida in Week 11, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is currently 66.5 points.

Find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida vs. LSU below. 

Brandon Carroll (7-2): LSU 41, Florida 24

Searching for bowl eligibility in the state that started it all for head coach Billy Napier, I expect Florida to play with some passion and purpose under the lights in Death Valley.

But it ultimately won’t matter, as contesting No. 19 LSU and the high-octane offense it sports will be a near-impossible feat for a struggling UF squad to overcome.

Florida’s offense will continue to tick at a rate high enough to remain in contention throughout the first half. 

The Gators will score on each of their first three possessions, leaning into their playmakers to do so by offering Eugene Wilson III and Trevor Etienne several touches throughout the opening series. But, like it has throughout Napier’s tenure, it will eventually fault in the raucous environment of Tiger Stadium.

From there, LSU will start to prevail.

The Tigers’ attack will prove to be too much to handle, however. As the top-ranked total offense in the country, LSU will take advantage of Florida’s susceptible defense.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels — who is expected to play after working through concussion protocol during the week — will continue building on his Heisman campaign with a dominant performance on the ground and through the air.

He accounts for multiple touchdowns in both aspects, leading the Tigers offense to eclipse the 20-point total and pull away from the Gators late in the third quarter.

LSU moves to 7-3 while Florida drops to 5-5 on the season with a 41-24 Tigers win in Death Valley.

Alex Shepherd (6-3): LSU 38, Florida 27

Death, taxes and the Florida Gators fighting for bowl eligibility. This has unfortunately become the new normal for a UF program in the depths of a massive rebuild.

Following a crushing overtime loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks, Florida is now tasked with taking on the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge. The “Bayou Bengals” are ranked as the top team in the nation in total offense, registering a whopping 544.6 yards per game. However, the major storyline everyone will be monitoring is the status of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Daniels has been the heart of the Tigers' offense this year. He currently sits within the top 10 nationally in completion percentage and passing yards per game while holding the top spot in the nation for passing efficiency. 

Should Daniels not be able to go on Saturday, a familiar name will be taking snaps for LSU. 

Garrett Nussmeier, son of former UF offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, has struggled in limited action during his career with the Tigers. Over his three years in Baton Rouge, he has completed 56.3% of his passes, totaling 1,325 yards passing with eight touchdowns on six interceptions. In relief of Daniels against Alabama, Nussmeier went 5-of-10 for 53 yards passing. Unlike Daniels, however, Nussmeier does not pose a threat on the ground.

All of this to say, the Gators may have a chance in this one should Daniels not be cleared to play. The Tigers defense has been susceptible to big plays. It currently ranks outside of the top 80 nationally in all major defensive categories (rush, pass and total defense). 

I believe the deciding factors will ultimately come down to two things: Can Florida’s defense find its footing again after allowing 39+ points in three straight contests, and will Daniels be unable to play?

If the answer to both is yes, I think the Gators can pull off a massive upset. But I’ll need to see it before I believe.

Zach Goodall (6-3): LSU 38, Florida 21 

I'll just be honest as I've struggled to piece my prediction together throughout the week: Barring a massive upset this week or next, I'll be picking against Florida in its three remaining games of the 2023 campaign. 

I'm just not sure how to creatively forecast a Gators matchup at this point in its season. Florida's issues are consistent in every phase of the game: The offense can't lean on the run and depends on an air attack with shady protection, the defense struggles to finish plays, and the special teams are good for multiple gaffes in nearly every game. 

This is a losing combination for any football team, especially one going against a ranked opponent in its home stadium, likely with a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback, so long as Jayden Daniels is fully cleared from his head injury as he appears on track to be.  

It is what it is, as Gators head coach Billy Napier often says. 

I envision an LSU backdoor cover to make the game appear further apart than it was between the first-through-late-fourth-quarter. That being said, the Tigers' lead will emerge quickly and remain in place from start to finish. 

Florida quarterback Graham Mertz will put together another efficient outing with 200+ passing yards and three scores, but that won't be nearly enough to contend with the Tigers. 

Conner Clarke (5-4): LSU 45, Florida 24 

The Gators, currently sitting at 5-4 on the season, are riding a two-game losing streak into arguably the toughest road environment in the country in Death Valley. 

Combine that with the fact that LSU leads the country in total offense and seems like a recipe for disaster as Billy Napier returns to the state of Louisiana for the first time since accepting the head coaching job in Gainesville.

With Jayden Daniels officially listed as probable for the game, there is a bit of intrigue as to whether the Tigers will have their Heisman candidate or if backup Garrett Nussmeier will be the trigger man Saturday night. To be frank, I don’t think it matters. With receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas — both of whom are top 25 in the country in receiving yards, Nabers being second nationally — it is going to be very tough for a Gators defense that has struggled in conference to get LSU off the field.

The emergence of Eugene Wilson III has been a welcomed development to give UF a weapon in the passing game aside from Ricky Pearsall, and both should be able to take advantage of a depleted secondary in Baton Rouge. That should lead Florida to put up points against an LSU defense that is in the bottom half nationally in just about every major category. But will that be enough?

The duos at receiver for both teams should make for an entertaining first half as the ball will likely be thrown early and often on both sides. But the firepower offensively on the LSU side will ultimately prove to be too much. I see the Tigers pulling away early in the second half to win this one comfortably.

Cam Parker (5-4): LSU 42, Florida 20

To put it bluntly, it'll take a miracle for Florida on Saturday to upset No. 19 LSU in Death Valley. 

Even with an injured Jayden Daniels, LSU shouldn't have any issue defeating Florida. The Tigers have won four straight in the rivalry and haven't lost to the Gators in Death Valley since 2016, a game which was supposed to be in Gainesville had it not been for a hurricane. 

After an initially positive start to the year, the wheels of the Gators' defense seemed to have fallen off. Since the 22-7 win over Charlotte, Florida has allowed an average of 434.8 yards per game, which includes at least 465 yards a game allowed over their last three contests. 

In that same timeframe, LSU averaged 556.2 yards per game, which includes 637 yards against Ole Miss and 478 yards against Alabama last week. 

The defensive positive for Florida is the return of linemen Cam'Ron Jackson and Tyreak Sapp up front, but combined with the loss of starting linebacker Shemar James and second-string EDGE Jack Pyburn, it still feels like the Tigers' offense will be too much for the Gators to handle. 

Should Daniels be unable to go, the Tigers will turn to Garrett Nussmeier, the son of former UF offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier. Although he's played in very limited action, Nussmeier would be boosted by the rushing threat of Logan Diggs (635 yards and six touchdowns) combined with the deadly duo of Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida finds a way to keep things interesting early. Graham Mertz and Co., mainly Eugene Wilson III, have had some of their best moments of the last couple of weeks in the first quarter. Over time, however, LSU will pull away. 

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