Florida vs. McNeese State: Picks and Predictions for Week 2

All Gators' staff picks and predictions for Florida's home-opening matchup of the 2023 season, against McNeese State.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- In addition to introducing orange and blue LED lights at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this week, Florida is aiming to reintroduce itself to the Gators' faithful, tasked with putting together an impressive performance against an FCS opponent following its debacle of a defeat at Utah last Thursday. 

Considering the level of competition, the Gators should have no issue doing so.

There is no point spread or over/under provided for Florida's matchup with McNeese State by the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. Instead, the most important number surrounding this game is 500,000 — the number of dollars UF is paying its opponent to, ideally, lose in The Swamp this week.

Find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida's 2023 home opener below. 

Zach Goodall (1-0): Florida 35, McNeese State 7

Before Billy Napier's Wednesday evening press conference, I asked a group of reporters what would be considered an acceptable degree of Florida beating McNeese State of the FCS following a brutal Week 1 defeat. Each response included a point differential of 30 or more in the Gators' favor, with UF scoring 40+ points in the game.

Everyone on the AG staff submitted a prediction that perfectly reflects the consensus take, other than me. I'm not trying to hate on the Gators by doing so. I simply believe we will see what Florida's offense is supposed to look like firing on all cylinders, and it is not an offense designed to drop 40+ points right now. 

The clock moves too quickly for a team that wants to run the ball as much as UF does to score so frequently. Granted, I forsee the defense playing well enough to give the unit a chance to dominate the scoreboard, but the pace will naturally slow as backups and reserves rotate into the game.

Florida can probably choose to air it out this week. The receivers should have their way against coverage. But the game presents a perfect opportunity for Napier to hone in on the basics, fundamentals and execution — to make this offense look like what it's supposed to look like. 

All of this being said, the Gators' offensive line will look greatly improved, although the competition must be kept in mind while assessing the unit. Look for Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. to each eclipse 100 rushing yards — Florida last won a game when the duo last accomplished this feat, against South Carolina on Nov. 12, 2022.

I expect the pass rush to terrorize McNeese State quarterback Nate Glantz, who took six sacks in Week 1 against Tarleton State. Florida might reach 10, and I anticipate Princely Umanmielen, Caleb Banks, TJ Searcy and Shemar James being among the group who puts Glantz on the turf. 

Alex Shepherd (1-0): Florida 45, McNeese State 13

Following a rough week one performance in Salt Lake City plagued by a lack of discipline and execution, the Gators will now look to bounce back against a McNeese State squad coming off a putrid 52-34 loss at home to Tarleton State.

The Cowboys' defense gave up a whopping 554 yards to TSU while its own offense only mustered 278 total yards. To add insult to injury, McNeese State has not come out victorious against an FBS opponent since 2013, when they defeated a Willie Taggart-led South Florida team that finished with a 2-10 record. 

Simply put, this is a game Florida should not and cannot lose. 

The Gators are the far more talented team that will be expected to drop the hammer and win by at least four touchdowns, if not more. Anything less than a dominant victory and you may see a full-on revolt from even the most dedicated fans. I’ll be keeping a close eye on whether the Gators can execute a mistake-free game or if the same problems from last week persist.

I expect the Gators' defense will continue to build on its youth, led by Shemar James and Jordan Castell, with the offense getting its mojo back via reestablishing the run game. I anticipate that Graham Mertz will continue to improve as a game manager and should easily eclipse 200+ yards passing. 

Brandon Carroll (0-1): Florida 48, McNeese State 10

Despite only being week two, a tune-up game for this Florida squad couldn’t come soon enough. The expected objective is more than a tally in the win column for UF.

And rightfully so.

Under the current circumstances, this matchup calls for Billy Napier’s squad to play clean, well-oiled football against a favorable opponent. They need to show strides fundamentally, control the controllable and limit the self-inflicted wounds that hindered their success a week ago.

By establishing the run early, the Gators are able to find their offensive identity after just 13 yards on the ground in week one. Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne come away with one score apiece to highlight Florida’s offensive attack while Graham Mertz settles into his role as a regulator of the offense.

The defense builds off a strong week one showing, halting McNeese’s RPO-based run game while “elevating” to produce tangible results (sacks) as a pass rush against Nate Glantz — who was taken down six times in the Cowboys' week one bout vs. Tarleton State. Austin Armstrong’s group produces at an effective clip again and uses Glatnz’s erratic nature as a passer to come away with multiple takeaways.

The Gators get a much-needed victory to snap a four-game skid dating back to last season and do it handily to allow a bevy of young players to see meaningful reps in the third and fourth quarters.

Watch Brandon's extended preview and prediction for the contest here. 

Conner Clarke (0-1): Florida 52, McNeese State 13

Coming off a rough start to the season in Salt Lake City, Utah, a tune-up game against a program like McNeese State could not have come at a better time for Florida.

I don’t expect this one to be close at all. I'm looking for UF to get a lot of younger players involved and to showcase that the glaring issues displayed in Week 1 have been addressed, mainly on-field discipline.

Look for UF to establish the run game early and try to help the offensive line gain some confidence, leaning on running backs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, two of the better players across the entire team. By establishing a rushing attack, the front five should improve in pass protection and provide Graham Mertz ample time to read the defense and hit receivers downfield.

Defensively, I liked what I saw from the unit against the Utes outside of the blown coverage on the first play and a few missed tackles that led to explosive gains. Freshmen such as TJ Searcy, Kelby Collins, Jamari Lyons (redshirt) and several others flashed against Utah and should see even more playing time this week, in a game that many Florida fans hope will be well in hand by halftime.

I don’t expect defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to show much in the way of exotic blitzes or coverages against a McNeese State team that doesn’t have athletes near the caliber of UF's. Just keep things simple and try to keep the Cowboys out of the end zone.

This should be an easy victory for the Gators but they certainly need to show improvement on special teams, on offense and with procedural penalties. If they can clean all that up, they should run away with this one early. 

Cam Parker (0-1): Florida 41, McNeese State 10 

After last week's poor performance against Utah, Florida returns to the Swamp for what should be a tune-up matchup against McNeese State. 

To put it bluntly, there's no excuse for the Gators to not dominate this one. The Cowboys gave up 52 points at home last week to Tarleton State and gave up over 550 yards. 

Now in the Swamp at night, Florida should have no issue in this one. That being said, McNeese does like to air it out, and facing a young Gators secondary, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cowboys try to take some shots down the field. What do they have to lose? Florida cannot let this become a Samford shootout like two years ago or a run-them-down close game like USF last season.

The Gators need to limit the self-inflicted mistakes that cost them last week. The starters need to build a big lead early, get off the field healthy and let the young core behind them get some in-game experience. Florida also needs to find some success on the ground while keeping the passing game as efficient as it was last week. 

And, they should. McNeese State gave up over 200 yards on the ground and another 344 yards in the air against Tarleton State. For Florida, there is simply no reason to not dominate on Saturday night, and expect to see plenty of new faces on the field. 

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