Florida Gators vs. Missouri: Key Matchups That Could Decide the Game

Which personnel matchups could be the deciding factor when the Florida Gators host the Missouri Tigers on Saturday?

Long-time, no-see, Albert. We haven’t seen you roaming the sidelines for three weeks now, and, I’ll admit, it’s been quite sad. 

But, alas, you’ve returned. The Gator football team will take the field in the Swamp for only the second time this season when Missouri comes to town this coming Saturday.

The directions of both team's seasons are polar opposite. For Florida, you know the story: 37 COVID-19 cases in the month of October derailed the Gators season and forced two games to be postponed. For Missouri, it’s the story of a first-year head-coach who’s won back-to-back games and turned the Tigers into a tough matchup for anyone.

"I think the biggest thing is having that excitement and ready to go play and trying to get a sense of normalcy," Gators offensive coordinator Brian Johnson said on Monday. "You just have to be clean with your preparation, have a great week of practice and get ready to perform at a high level on Saturday." 

When the ball is kicked into the thick Gainesville air on Halloween night, here’s what will decide what will make this a Gator trick or treat.

Florida vs. COVID-19

The elephant in the room, and frankly the Gators' most important matchup. The looming questions for Saturday: Who will be available, and who won’t be? How many starters are out because they either contracted the virus or are in contact tracing? 

The answers to these questions won’t be known until right before kickoff. However, it is safe to expect there will be implications.

Missouri has dealt with its fair-share of COVID-19 problems as well. The Tigers had seven players out due to COVID-19 protocol for their game against LSU and their matchup with Vanderbilt was postponed due to an outbreak on the Commodores.

One benefit from the time away from the field, however, is guys who may be feeling the aches and pains of football were able to rest and recover before the Missouri game.

“I physically feel fresh." running back Malik Davis said. "This rarely happens during a season where your body can just recover and feel fresh. That’s a benefit out of having two weeks off. Guys that were banged up were able to recover.”

Florida front-seven vs. Missouri ground-game

The Gators will face another high-quality running back on Saturday in Missouri’s Larry Rountree III. Rountree has consistently been one of the best backs in the SEC during his four seasons in Columbus, and is the bell-cow for the Missouri offense. He rushed for over 100 yards in Missouri’s wins against LSU and Kentucky, averaging nearly 4.5 yards per carry in those two games.

Not to mention, Missouri has a dynamic, emerging scat-back in Tyler Badie, who has two receiving touchdowns coming out of the backfield. This kind of combo tends to give defensive coordinator Todd Grantham fits in game planning.

However, the Gators are expected to get a boost to the defensive line this week. Senior Kyree Campbell tweeted earlier in the week that he’ll be back on the field Saturday, and it was confirmed by GatorsTerritory that the 6-foot-4, 295-pound defensive lineman will be back in action against Missouri.

"We definitely depended on him," linebacker James Houston IV said. "We definitely were waiting and wanting him back as soon as possible. It should be interesting to see him in there next game.”

This is a massive return for a Gators front-four that has struggled with depth issues in their first three games. This will make a large impact on the likes of T.J. Slaton and Zach Carter, who have played a disproportionate amount of snaps thus far.

The biggest thing this will do is allow Carter to move back to his more comfortable strong-side defensive end spot. He’s been excellent at the three-technique this season, but he thrives in setting the edge at defensive end and is a dynamic pass rusher coming off-tackle. This should bump Brenton Cox Jr. from SDE to BUCK, a position he seems more suited to play.

Kyle Pitts vs. Missouri coverage

Pitts dealt with a foot injury against Texas A&M that limited his usage as the game went on. With three weeks off though, Pitts should be back at full-strength Saturday and return to his usual production.

With that being said, Pitts has a chance to have a monster game versus Missouri. Missouri is susceptible to allowing massive chunks of yardage to tight ends. They allowed six catches for 97 yards and a touchdown to LSU’s Arik Gilbert, and gave up big passing numbers to Alabama as well.

Missouri likes to run man coverage, especially since they have numerous corners that stand at our slightly above six-feet tall. This is ideal for Pitts. He’s too big and his arms are too long for even taller defensive backs to handle. If he’s back at full-strength, I’d expect him to have a huge game.

Kadarius Toney will also benefit from the increased man-to-man coverage as well. Toney is averaging over 13 yards a catch and has seen his production steadily increase through the first three games. Quarterback Kyle Trask has said in the past that he believes Toney can beat anyone in man coverage, so look for Toney to get some targets and touches.

With his ability to create separation at the top of his routes now, he’s proven to be a matchup nightmare coming out of the slot. Considering LSU touched this Missouri secondary for 430 yards, it should be a good day for Trask and his pass-catchers.

Gators run game vs. the clock

Another more ambiguous matchup, but one that has been, in my mind, the crux of many of Florida’s issues on defense. They can’t get off the field, and this has to do with their atrocious 3rd down defense. Grantham’s unit is allowing 59% of third downs to be converted.

What could help this is longer offensive drives. Right now, the Gators are averaging about two-minutes and 46 seconds per drive and only 27 minutes and 29 seconds of possession a game. That’s warp-speed pace and too much time on the field for a depleted defensive line.

The only game thus far this season that the Gators won the time-of-possession battle was against Ole Miss (33:29 to 26:31). What the Gators also did in this game was rush for nearly 200 yards.

Yes, Ole Miss is one of the most porous defenses in the nation, but running the ball helped Florida extend drives and keep the defense fresh enough to get crucial stops.

Florida must pound the rock versus Missouri if they want to win this game. Missouri has been decent against the run (allowing 122.5 yards per game through four outings) but allowed 232 yards to Tennessee on the ground in week two.

The Gator backs are probably the freshest position group on the team as they’ve only run the ball on 42% of their plays. Dameon Pierce leads the team with only 25 carries and 130 rushing yards (over five yards a carry) and has shown to be a force between the tackles. Florida should look to get Pierce more than the eight carries a game he’s currently getting.

This doesn’t even discuss his backfield running mates in Malik Davis and Nay’quan Wright, who both have shown to be quality options out of the backfield. Wright led the Gators in rushing against Texas A&M, averaging over five yards a carry and breaking off two 10-plus yard runs and a touchdown.

Running the ball will be imperative for both the Gator offense and, most importantly, the defense.