Florida vs. Oregon State: Las Vegas Bowl Picks and Predictions
Can first-year head coach Billy Napier secure a winning season for the Gators in fabulous Las Vegas, Nev., or will Florida replicate its 6-7 finish from a year ago?
We'll find out on Saturday when the Gators take on the No. 14 (CFP) Oregon State Beavers in the 2022 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium.
Florida enters the game as a 10-point underdog against Oregon State, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 53 points.
You can find All Gators' picks and predictions for the Las Vegas Bowl below.
Zach Goodall (7-5): Oregon State 27, Florida 21
Florida began to lose players to the transfer portal in October before a mass exodus began in the week after the Gators' loss to Florida State. So far, 18 scholarship players have entered the portal and another seven (including dismissed edge rusher Brenton Cox Jr.) have declared for the NFL Draft.
Of those 25 players, only three intend to play in the Las Vegas Bowl: Left tackle Richard Gouraige (draft), defensive lineman Gervon Dexter (draft) and edge rusher David Reese (transfer).
Not to mention, Florida ruled another seven players out due to injury on Wednesday night.
In place of Anthony Richardson who is going pro, UF will start Jack Miller III at quarterback. The season-long third-string signal-caller missed a chunk of the campaign with an injury but quickly rose up the depth chart following Richardson and dismissed QB Jalen Kitna's postseason departures.
Oregon State has had no such issues when it comes to postseason roster attrition.
Only three Beavers players, backup quarterbacks Chance Nolan and Jake Blair and reserve defensive back Fred Martin, have entered the portal this postseason, while two have declared for the NFL Draft. One, tight end Luke Musgrave, has been out since Week 3 with an injury while the other, defensive back Rejzohn Wright, will bypass the game.
Florida's size and strength in the trenches and Oregon State's comparative lack thereof should make this game closer than some might expect. I expect both teams to lean on their ground games, and UF's is proven to be one of the most dynamic in the nation, which will only help the Gators in a matchup where I'm predicting the under on total points scored.
But, ultimately, it's impossible for me to pick the 6-6 Gators to win a game in an unfamiliar environment with a depth chart that consists of just 55 players.
Football is a numbers game. With that in mind, Florida is at a clear disadvantage.
Brandon Carroll (8-4): Oregon State 24, Florida 21
Jack Miller III is set to participate in his first career start on Saturday. His inexperience encompasses that of the entire Florida unit heading into the game.
With a new starting quarterback in the mix to lead a drastically altered unit from the 2022 season slate, the Florida Gators are behind the eight ball as they head into battle against Oregon State. The goal, as a result, will be to finish the season strong by developing youth while playing to remain above .500 in Billy Napier's first campaign.
However, with a new quarterback, a new middle linebacker and the absence of a consensus All-American, accomplishing that goal will be a difficult one.
Given that drastic disadvantage for Florida from a roster standpoint, I am picking the Beavers to win this contest in the end. However, I expect the Gators' rushing game and defense to play a strong role in allowing the squad to hang around with the No. 14 team in the country until the end.
Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, who have combined to give the Gators a top-15 rushing offense, will likely be the offensive focal point to take pressure off Miller to produce at a high level. The duo will have a voluminous role that presents UF with the opportunity to control the clock and move the ball deliberately.
The Beavers will likely look to combat that with a slow, methodical pace of their own.
As a result, scoring will come at a premium. Each squad will be limited to the number of possessions they have and the team that is able to sustain their drives will be the victor.
The continuity on the Beavers squad will give them the upper hand in that area and ultimately in the contest. Florida covers the 10-point spread but falls short of conquering the Beavers by a field goal.
CJ Clarke (9-3): Oregon State 34, Florida 28
The Florida Gators are set to take on the Oregon St Beavers in Las Vegas (Nv.) for their final contest of the 2022 season. Florida enters the game with a 6-6 record and unranked while the Beavers who are 8.5 point favorites boast a 9-3 record and are pegged as the 14th ranked team in the nation.
The Gators will be without several starters for this matchup with Anthony Richardson, Ventrell Miller, Justin Shorter and O’Cyrus Torrence all choosing to sit out in preparation for the NFL Draft and rotational OL Richie Leonard and others due to injury. But, the Gators do get WR’s Xzavier Henderson, Marcus Burke and Ja’Quavion Fraziers back from injury. Those additions plus having both Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne should help first time starter Jack Miller III a bit as he takes over reigns.
While the Oregon St passing attack hasn’t been much to write home about they do boast three 400 yard rushers that includes Damien Martinez who ran for 970 yards and seven TD’s on an impressive 6.1 yards per carry clip.
Defensively Florida has struggled to stop the run, giving up just a shade over over 176 yards per game. And that was with their veteran leader and best LB Ventrell Miller on the field for most of the season. Without him they could struggle even more.
If Florida is going to have a chance to win this game they will need to lean on the running game (let me know if you’ve heard that before) and make life easier on their new starting QB. Unfortunately that still might not be enough. I think Florida is just too depleted with the loss of players due to the draft, injury and portal to be able to win this game. And for that reason I have the Beavers winning in Vegas.
Chris Thornton (4-1): Florida 35 Oregon State 31
Chris Thornton joined All Gators' prediction story in Week 10
THE SHOOTOUT ON THE STRIP
Do you ever get that weird gut feeling where it just feels like something ridiculous is going to happen? One about this game just hasn't gone away. Although the record doesn't show it, on paper, these teams are pretty hand in hand. I'll still agree that Oregon State has the better team overall, but despite all of the transfers and NFL declarations, I think this Gators team has one last spark in it for the season.
The Gators still have a tough task ahead. Oregon State boasts good defense and excellent coverage skills. Will Jack Miller III be able to conjure up some magic in his first start for the Gators? He has a healthier wide receiver corps to help lend a hand in this game. Running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne have a chance to make a splash on the big stage. The proverbial “Achilles heel” of this Oregon State defense could be the run defense. The elusiveness of Etienne could be the needed edge to put this Oregon State defense off balance and land some devastating blows.
Billy Napier ends his inaugural season as Gators head coach above .500 and maybe even gets a little boost in the offseason.
Viva Las Vegas.
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