Analysis: Florida Is Teetering on the Edge of CFP Contention

In-depth analysis of Florida's performance in the SEC Championship and what UF can pull from the results moving forward.

Florida’s loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game is now multiple days behind us, and the result has had time to marinate. It was a climactic final game of the SEC's dramatic season, but an anti-climactic finish for a Gators team that had national title aspirations.

Twelve points separated the Gators from an undefeated season and three losses. Self-inflicted wounds plagued Florida in those three losses. On no day or night were any of the 11 teams the Gators played objectively better. Heck, even despite the vast disparity of talent difference between Florida and Alabama, the Gators looked equally as adept as the Crimson Tide did.

What can Florida pull from its performance on both sides of the ball from the SEC Championship?

Offense

If anything, this game, and season, shows that Dan Mullen and his offensive staff are elite developers of talent. Obviously, there’s Kyle Trask and his rise from a two-star, high school backup, to throwing for 408 yards and accounting for five touchdowns against the nation's 11th best scoring defense in Mercedes Benz Stadium.

Then there is Kadarius Toney, who came in as a gadget high school quarterback that would get two-to-three touches a game simply because of how athletic he was, yet, was unpolished and not a complete player. An extra year working with wide receivers coach Billy Gonzalez turned Toney into a potential top-50 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Toney ended up leading Florida in numerous pass-catching categories, with 984 receiving yards, 70 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

His improved route running was on full-display against Bama, particularly the drive that Florida cut the Crimson Tide's lead to 28-17. Toney caught all three passes from Trask, the first being a seam route that he bluffed as going up the sideline (a route he scored a touchdown earlier in the game on) and got inside leverage on the defensive back. Trask threw a perfect ball between the safety and corner, good for 39 yards.

Toney then caught an eight-yard hitch, sitting in the soft spot of the Alabama zone for an easy catch. His next route is what will make NFL scout's eyes pop.

Trask had Toney next to him in the backfield of his right, but Alabama still elected to put defensive back Malachi Moore on him. Toney started like he was running an option-out route five yards downfield and got Moore to open his hips up to the outside. Toney then stuck his foot in the turf and went up the seam, making Moore stumble as he tried to keep up. The play went down to the one-yard line, and the Gators scored a play later.

This level of route running is something that looked foreign to Toney a season ago. The biggest knock on him was his inability to run a full route tree, and he worked incredibly hard in the offseason to perfect his craft.

However, the game put further emphasis on the areas where Florida needs to improve, from a talent and scheme perspective, if they want to compete for national titles.

For starters, the offensive line. The left side of the line has been of the strength of the unit all season. Stone Forsythe at left tackle and Richard Gouraige at left guard have been an excellent duo, particularly in pass protection. Against Bama, Forsythe allowed zero quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.

The right side of the line is where things get shaky. Jean Delance is a liability, and it reared its ugly head on Saturday. Delance allowed a pressure that led to a strip-sack on Trask when Florida needed to score, down 42-31.

As much criticism as Delance gets, Stewart Reese at right guard hasn’t been stellar either. He’s been flat-footed at times, and allowed a few pressures against Alabama himself. He also has been slow on pulls and shown a lack of ability to get around the corner quickly and lead block for the running backs.

In total, the offensive line allowed five sacks on Saturday, the most they’ve allowed all season. Granted, the Crimson Tide has elite pass rushers in Christian Harris and Will Anderson Jr., but that’s what you’ll have to contend with playing against the nation's elite teams.

Defense

For starters, some good things. One: Brad Stewart Jr. This probably was his best game as a Gator from a holistic standpoint. Stewart recorded seven solo tackles, many of which were in open space that limited potentially explosive plays, and he had a key pass break up on a post route intended for Devonta Smith in the second quarter. It was the kind of game the STAR position on Florida’s defense has to play for the scheme to work.

The two biggest issues for Florida on defense are defensive line depth and coverage schemes.

There is talent on the defensive line. Kyree Campbell, T.J. Slaton, and Zach Carter are a very solid trio, and all could play in the NFL one day. Campbell and Slaton being seniors, that day could come sooner than later. Throw in Gervon Dexter, who has improved significantly throughout the season, and that’s four high-quality defensive tackles. However, that’s about it when it comes to high-quality options.

Once the second half came, the Alabama offensive line had its way with Florida's down lineman. They were blown off the ball frequently due to lack of attrition and being on the field for nearly 20 minutes in the first half.

This is where recruiting needs to be better. Florida signed two defensive tackles in the 2021 class in Desmond Watson and Christopher Thomas, and have rising sophomores Jalen Lee and Lamar Goods to go along with Dexter.

The likes of Marlon Dunlap Jr. and converted tight end Dante Lang will return as well. Is that enough depth and talent going forward to replace the three upperclassmen, if they all leave?

To the secondary, where it’s purely scheme and personnel decisions that are keeping the unit back. Kaiir Elam has shown he’s a solid number one cornerback, and thrives in press-man coverage. However, he wasn’t always in that look and was beaten underneath several times when giving up a cushion. This allowed John Metchie III to work underneath with little-to-no interference when lined up against Elam, who didn’t really have much chance playing 10-yards off. Let Elam play press, and it’s a different story, I think.

The biggest problem with the scheme against Bama is that the middle of the field was left vacated far too often. Alabama consistently hit crossing routes 10-to-15 yards downfield, over the heads of the linebackers, and in front of the safeties. Why no adjustment was made to prevent that from continuing to happen raises a lot of questions.

As mentioned previously, Stewart looks much more comfortable in the STAR role, and that’s a very promising sign for next season.

Shawn Davis and Rashad Torrence II didn’t play once again as they have been dealing with injuries, forcing Trey Dean III to start at safety. He played as well as anyone has on the back end all season for the Gators. He wasn’t beaten deep, he stuck in his assigned zones, and he recorded an interception.

The talent is there, and with the way Torrian Gray and Ron English have been recruiting in the secondary recently, more is coming. It’s a matter of making sure they’re in a position to succeed.

Conclusion

Florida is every-so-close to competing in the College Football Playoff. The hope would be that a lot of young players get opportunities in the Cotton Bowl versus Oklahoma, getting their feet wet before the 2021 offseason and flashing what this team could look like in the future.

Once the offseason does come, it’ll be the most pivotal one of the Dan Mullen era yet. Whether it be making coaching changes, landing a handful more of elite prospects, and making sure younger players are ready to step up and play major roles next season: Tweaks will need to be made to take the next step, getting over the hump and into contention.

Mullen must prove that New Year's Six bowls and two-to-three loss seasons aren't his ceiling, and build off of his first SEC title game appearance.