Florida vs. South Carolina: Picks and Predictions for Week 7
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Hopeful to snap a five-game losing streak away from The Swamp, Billy Napier's Florida Gators (4-2, 2-1 SEC) are at South Carolina (2-3, 1-2 SEC) this week for their third SEC East matchup in a row.
After South Carolina opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Florida, the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook pulled the matchup's spread on Saturday morning. The over/under is 50.5 points at this time.
Find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida vs. South Carolina below.
Alex Shepherd (5-1): Florida 27, South Carolina 21
After an impressive win in The Swamp over Vanderbilt, Florida will now head to Columbia to face SEC East foe South Carolina. The Gamecocks sit at 2-3 on the season, with victories coming against Furman and Mississippi State.
The biggest issue South Carolina has faced is the fact that its offense has proven to be one-dimensional, with its rushing attack currently sitting at No. 124 in the country.
Its offense almost entirely relies on senior quarterback Spencer Rattler, who has shown flashes of being an incredibly efficient game manager. Rattler currently sits within the top 35 quarterbacks in the nation for passing efficiency (No. 32), passing yards per game (No. 18) and completion percentage (No. 9).
His top weapon, Xavier Legette, will need to be a focal point for the Gators secondary, which struggled to cover multiple explosive plays against the Commodores.
It is important to note that the common trend in South Carolina's two losses versus SEC opponents is Rattler being shut down. In matchups with Tennessee and Georgia, Rattler was held to a combined 60.5% completion rate, whereas in USC's two victories, he averaged an outstanding 91.3% completion rate.
The biggest question for Florida is how it will perform away from The Swamp. Head coach Billy Napier spoke of various minor adjustments to the team’s travel schedule, including an earlier arrival into Columbia and the importance of emphasizing sleep. But will these items prove to make the difference for a UF team that has only won a single away game during Napier’s tenure?
In my opinion, this game is likely the Gators' best remaining opportunity to secure a victory away from home. I had told myself I wouldn’t pick Florida again this season when it wasn’t playing in Gainesville, but something tells me the Gators will do enough in this game to keep it close and escape Williams–Brice Stadium with a win.
I don’t expect it to be pretty; however, if Florida can contain Rattler and the Gamecocks passing attack and exploit USC’s lackluster secondary, the Gators should come out victorious on the road.
Zach Goodall (5-1): South Carolina 24, Florida 17
I've gone back and forth on this prediction all week.
Perhaps I'm giving Florida, 1-7 away from home under Billy Napier, too much credit after its much-needed reset victory against Vanderbilt last week. But I believe the Gators match up well enough with the Gamecocks on paper that if the respectable UF defense can shut South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler down, a path toward victory will open.
But Rattler, paired with top wideout Xavier Legette and emerging weapons like O'Mega Blake and Trey Knox, is likely to come out firing in the passing game after a bye week of planning for this matchup. Legette is a deep threat and contested-catch weapon who can take advantage of the deep openings Florida's cornerbacks have allowed at times this season, while Blake and Knox will test UF's linebackers and young safeties in the middle of the field.
I expect South Carolina to score early and put Florida in a small hole, not nearly as deep as the one dug by Kentucky in Week 5 but enough to require the offense to lean on the passing game. But Ricky Pearsall, Eugene Wilson III and Arlis Boardingham will win their share of matchups against a Gamecocks defense that is prone to giving up completions of intermediate length, which bodes well for Gators quarterback Graham Mertz.
The UF rushing game, bolstered by the return of running back Trevor Etienne and left tackle Austin Barber, will complement Mertz well enough that Florida will respond with multiple scores in the second and third quarter, forcing a 17-17 tie just before the game's final 15 minutes.
Rattler and his pass-catchers will manage one more successful drive, though, and the "Sandstorm"-inspired crowd at Williams-Brice Stadium will create issues for Florida's offense as it tries to match the final score in crunch time, preventing a necessary Gators' touchdown.
Unlike Florida's first two road games of the 2023 season, this one will inspire hope that the Gators can compete away from home. It might not end in a victory, but the taste in fans' mouths won't be as bitter as it was two weeks ago.
Brandon Carroll (5-1): Florida 24, South Carolina 20
The Gators head into enemy territory looking to secure their second win away from The Swamp in Billy Napier's tenure on Saturday. While recent history tells me to pick against Florida due to its road struggles, the X's and O's notify me otherwise.
From a matchup perspective, the bout will be strength versus strength as the Gators' 14th-ranked pass defense faces dynamic quarterback Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks' pass-oriented offensive attack.
Whoever prevails in this in-game battle will win the war.
South Carolina likes to spread the ball around the field, looking to put pressure on the secondary with quick hitters to the boundary, forcing the defensive backs to tackle their wideouts in open space.
It serves as a supplement to the rushing attack, which has been ineffective for the unit through their first five games with just 3.9 yards per carry between Mario Anderson and Dakereon Joyner.
The attack progressively expands in an attempt to stretch the field.
The Gators have been susceptible to big plays through the air — an opening that Rattler and talented wideout Xavier Legette could take advantage of, especially in front of the home crowd. However, the down-to-down consistency of defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong's unit against opposing air attacks will likely halt the Gamecocks' early efforts, derailing them from finding a rhythm.
If the big plays come at a minimum, which I think they will, Florida wins the strength-on-strength battle, which ultimately gives UF the upper hand.
But, the offense needs to supplement that effort.
Facing off against the nation's No. 118 total defense, allowing 443 yards and just under 30 points per contest, Florida’s offense has the potential to do that.
The Gators will sustain some of the rushing success they achieved via running back Montrell Johnson Jr. in Week 6 against Vanderbilt as a result. The offensive line will be able to generate significant push upfront against the 73rd-ranked run defense in the nation, creating holes for Johnson and the returning Trevor Etienne to exploit throughout the day.
The duo will give the Gators' offense just enough juice to edge out the Gamecocks' bottom-15 defense.
Therefore, Florida gets the road game boogeyman off their back and earns a hard-fought, crunch-time victory over South Carolina inside Williams-Brice Stadium, 24-20.
Watch Brandon’s in-depth preview and prediction here.
Conner Clarke (4-2): South Carolina 27, Florida 23
On paper, this is a game that Florida can and should win. However, South Carolina has two things working in its favor: The Gamecocks are coming off a bye week, and they are playing at home.
Since 2009, South Carolina is 14-2 coming off a bye and is 2-0 under Shane Beamer in that regard, including the Gamecocks' 2021 matchup against the Gators in Dan Mullen’s waning moments as the Florida head coach. Couple that with the fact that the Gators have been abysmal on the road under head coach Billy Napier, to the tune of a 1-7 record away from the Swamp, and there is little room for confidence about the program in Gainesville right now.
Though Florida’s defense has been much improved this season, it has been susceptible to the big play, something South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler and receiver Xavier Legette have been very good at producing through their first five games.
Legette ranks number eight in the country in receiving yards with 606 on 32 receptions, despite his idle Week 6, and three touchdowns to show for it. In addition, Rattler has significantly improved his completion percentage, jumping to 73% this season, up from 66.2% a season ago.
However, the Gators should be able to take advantage of the fact that the Gamecocks are extremely one-dimensional. Their leading rusher, Division 2 transfer Mario Anderson, only has 230 yards on the season with 75 of those yards coming on one carry against Georgia.
As I said before, on paper this is a very winnable and favorable game for the Gators. The Gamecocks' offensive line has been a revolving door, giving up 23 sacks on the season, putting them third worst in the entire country at protecting the quarterback.
Florida needs to get after the passer early and often to try to disrupt the timing between Rattler and his receivers and possibly force some turnovers, which is something the Gators' defense has really struggled to do with only two through six games thus far.
Offensively, Florida will be getting important pieces in tackle Austin Barber and running back Trevor Etienne back from injury to accompany Montrell Johnson, who is coming off his best performance of the season. If Florida can establish the running game early against a porous run defense that ranks twelfth in the SEC, it could do some real damage with two of the better backs in the conference hitting their stride.
A Gators win here would not surprise me at all, but until I see them get the gorilla that is winning a road game off their back, I can’t in good conscience pick them to come out with a victory. And for that reason, I’m going with the Gamecocks in a close one.
Cam Parker (4-2): South Carolina 24, Florida 21
Despite my score prediction, this game is one that Florida should win. However, it's hard to pick the Gators in an away game.
The Gators do have the benefit of playing a one-dimensional offensive team in South Carolina. Simply put, the Gamecocks don't have a Ray Davis-type at running back. They are dead-last in the SEC in rushing yards per game (87.0) while having the second-to-last number of attempts per game (160).
Seeing that the Gators are one of the better teams in the SEC at stopping the run, even following the Kentucky debacle, it makes complete sense that South Carolina turns to the passing attack with Spencer Rattler, who is in the top half of the conference in total passing yards (1,411) and No. 3 in completion percentage (73%).
Offensively, the Gators have the benefit of Austin Barber and Trevor Etienne returning along with Graham Mertz, Arlis Boardingham and Montrell Johnson coming off strong performances. However, I'd be surprised if much changed within the offense. It will be another run-first, short pass-second script, although I wouldn't be shocked if they attempt a couple of shots down the field.
That being said, the glaring red flag is how the Gators play on the road. They only have one win in eight games away from The Swamp under Billy Napier. Now, the team has made adjustments to its travel schedule in the hope that it will benefit their performance, but until Florida proves to me that it can win on the road, I struggle to predict a win for the Orange and Blue.
Overall, this should be a game the Gators win, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do so. Consider this prediction a personal "prove me wrong" kind of pick.
Once Florida wins an away game, I'll be more comfortable picking the Gators going forward. But they've got to win one first.
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