Florida vs. Tennessee: Picks and Predictions for Week 3

Picks and predictions for Florida's rivalry matchup with Tennessee from the All Gators staff.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Billy Napier has yet to defeat one of Florida's four top rivals in his 15-game career as the Gators' head coach. He has a chance to end a four-game losing skid to these adversaries on Saturday when the Gators open conference play at home against No. 11 Tennessee.

Florida hasn't lost to Tennessee at home since 2003, making the idea of UF dropping this game even more daunting than it was in paragraph one. 

But while the Volunteers enter the matchup undefeated, a season removed from an 11-2 (6-2 SEC) finish, Tennessee's typically elite offense has started the 2023 campaign without as much explosion, averaging a good 39.5 points per game through two weeks against underwhelming opponents, down from the nation's best 46.1 in 2022. 

If Florida is to win this game, it will need to maximize its defensive growth to capitalize on Tennessee's slight offensive regression. Oddsmakers aren't entirely ruling UF out from doing so, and neither is the All Gators staff. 

Florida is considered a 5.5-point underdog to Tennessee, per the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is currently 55.5 points. 

Find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida's 2023 home opener below.

Zach Goodall (2-0): Tennessee 27, Florida 22

Tennessee's offense once again presents a tall task for Florida to defend. But unlike the threat it posed through the air a year ago with Hendon Hooker at the helm, this season it pairs its fast-paced play calling with a dynamic rushing game that is supplemented by a dual-threat quarterback who can handle West Coast concepts in Joe Milton, rather than being reliant on a consistently vertical air attack that opened up the run.

It isn't as efficient and it might not score as many points as it did in 2022, but the Vols' offense remains dangerous. It will demand Florida's defense to continue playing like the significantly improved unit it has looked like so far this season, and I believe it will, but I'm not convinced that will be enough for UF to pull off an upset.

I envision Florida making this a close game late in the fourth quarter, scoring a touchdown and a two-point conversion to narrow Tennessee's lead to two points. But a failed onside kick will set the Vols up to burn some clock, extend its lead with a field goal and order the Gators to march down the field and reach the end zone again. 

As my previous game predictions and analytical writing about Florida's offense this year might suggest, I'm not convinced the unit is capable of such a feat. The showing against Utah when quarterback Graham Mertz threw 44 times for 333 yards, yet UF scored only 11 points, does not instill much confidence in the Gators' ability to come back from behind. 

Simple as this might sound (it isn't), the winner of this game will be the team that commits to and executes its game plan from start to finish. These teams are drastically different in how they operate offensively, and if one squad is forced to abandon the script to remain in the game, chances are the contest will be over at that point. 

I think Tennessee is currently the better-suited team to stick to its plan. The Swamp will have something to say about that, but remember, the Volunteers dismantled LSU in Death Valley last year right before the Tigers went on a run to win the SEC West. Under head coach Josh Heupel, UT has proven competent in a hostile environment. 

Alex Shepherd (2-0): Florida 27, Tennessee 23

Florida did what it needed to do this past weekend. It dominated an overmatched opponent to the tune of a 49-7 thrashing that left fans excited and optimistic for the week to come.

Now the real test begins. Florida will open SEC play against a talented 2-0 Tennessee team that is coming off a relatively uninspiring 30-13 victory at home over FCS opponent Austin Peay. The Volunteers boast a quick and experienced team with the vast majority of its starting lineup being seniors. Quarterback Joe Milton has flashed signs of being a genuine playmaker, but where the Volunteers shine is at running back. Led by junior Jaylen Wright and senior Jabari Small, its rushing attack currently sits at No. 4 in the nation, averaging 257.5 yards per game and 6.13 yards per rush.

If the Gators hope to pull off an upset, its defense will have to play impeccably. As I mentioned in my prediction last week, Florida’s youth will be counted on to make big plays and force turnovers. Linebacker Shemar James continues to lead the team in tackles, followed by freshman safety Jordan Castell — both of whom need to be vocal leaders for their respective position groups. 

One item I hope to see improvement in is the speed at which the defensive play calls come in. On multiple occasions, I saw Florida’s defenders looking at the sideline when the ball was snapped. Tennessee runs a quick, up-tempo style of offense that might catch the Gators off guard if they are not careful.

On the offensive side of the ball, Graham Mertz will once again be counted on to manage the game script, which will likely include the Gators trying to slow the game down and bleed the clock. The Volunteers will without a doubt be prepared for a strong rushing attack as its leading tackler, senior linebacker Aaron Beasley, will be tasked with shutting down the dynamic rushing duo of Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson. 

Mertz will need to have his best game to date and likely drop in some deep throws to keep the Gators in this one.

It’s important to remember that Tennessee has not won a game in The Swamp since 2003. One thing no team can authentically prepare for is a raucous crowd and an opponent vying for revenge after last year’s loss. Call it recency bias, but I think that makes the difference and the Gators pull off the upset in a close one. 

Brandon Carroll (1-1): Florida 23, Tennessee 20

Tennessee’s return to Gainesville brings the most viable opportunity to snap a two decade losing streak in The Swamp it’s seen in quite some time.

However, I’m not convinced they do.

The Florida improved defense in 2023 will determine this contest, forcing the up-tempo Tennessee offense off the field at a consistent rate to give the Gators the ability to control the clock and the pace of the game.

That means slowing it down.

It’s a daunting challenge given the Vols approach of wanting to run a play every 20 seconds, but I think Florida has the pieces to stifle the run with a light box while creating confusion and chaos for quarterback Joe Milton in coverage. It’s the exact recipe for success to beat Tennessee.

Linebackers Shemar James and Scooby Williams, as well as the defensive line depth, play significant roles in the Gators success on Saturday night.

The Gators run game maintains some of the success it saw a week ago after producing just 13 yards against Utah, granting them the ability to churn the clock.

The pace of the game adheres more to UF’s style, slow and methodical.

Florida’s defense — and the raucous environment — forces the Tennessee offense into difficult situations and Milton throw his first interception while at UT in a crucial moment.

As a result, the Gators upset the No. 11 Volunteers, 23-20, in a low-scoring affair. The win gives Billy Napier his much-needed first victory over a rival.

Conner Clarke (1-1): Florida 23, Tennessee 21

Florida's defense this week will be tasked with trying to shut down the high-powered offense of Josh Heupel and Tennessee. And while it hasn’t looked extremely explosive to this point in the season under new-ish starting quarterback Joe Milton, it doesn’t take much to get it rolling.

Tennessee boasts one of the more formidable backfields the Gators will see this year with the trio of Jabari Small, Jaylen Wright and Dylan Sampson. Small is the veteran leader of the group, but Wright is the team’s leading rusher. Wright has run for 233 yards in two games for an outstanding 9.3 yards per carry. While the deep ball of Milton is what most people will be watching, the run game is where Tennessee has made its money this year.

If Florida wants to defend The Swamp, the defensive line and linebackers will have to slow down the Volunteers' potent rushing attack.

On the flip side, offensively Florida seemed to find its identity last week against McNeese State. Montrell Johnson, Trevor Etienne and Treyaun Webb all found their way into the end zone and the Gators were able to run at will. While I don’t expect the same kind of production against a much better opponent, I do believe that Billy Napier and Graham Mertz have found the team's recipe for success this year.

And then there is the -factor, spark plug or whatever you want to call him in Eugene “Tre” Wilson III. While I expect the Gators to lean on the running game primarily on the backs of Johnson and Etienne, it can’t be stressed enough how important getting Wilson touches is. When he has the ball in his hands, it’s just different. Look for the talented freshman to be a big part of the game plan as he is by far Florida’s most explosive weapon.

This rivalry goes back over 100 years and these two teams do not like each other. Tennessee definitely has the more explosive offense and can put up points in a hurry. But can Milton take care of the ball and be accurate against the best defense he’s faced to this point in the year? I really don’t know. Couple that with the fact that UT has only won in Gainesville five times in over a century and it’s hard not to pick Florida here. 

I think the 88,000+ screaming fans will play a role and Billy Napier finds a way to get his first rivalry win as the head coach at UF.  

Cam Parker (1-1): Florida 21, Tennessee 20

The score screams 2006, and that's about how I predict it to go on Saturday night. This one should be a true four-quarter game. Like the game 17 years ago, this one will come down to consistent defense, veteran quarterback presence and clutch plays down the stretch. 

Looking at Tennessee ,there's no question that quarterback Joe Milton III hasn't played his best football, but a major positive is he hasn't thrown an interception yet. On the other side, as good as Florida's defense has been, they have yet to intercept a pass. Can the Gators get over the hump and create true turnovers? 

Looking at Florida, last weekend's win over McNeese State was a true tune-up game. The Gators did a good job establishing the run and playing mistake-free football. Now, how will they do against a major SEC rival? 

Can the offensive line give Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson room to run and Graham Mertz time to throw? Tennessee has an SEC-leading 11 sacks this year, while the Gators' offensive line has given up five sacks. Can Mertz continue to play efficiently in the passing game? 

All these questions will be answered on Saturday. Not to mention, it's a sold out crowd in the Swamp at night.

Between the evening environment, Florida's confidence after last weekend and Tennessee's recent struggles, I think the Gators pull out a close one at the end of the game. 

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