Florida vs. Texas A&M: Picks and Predictions
Florida has only played one true road game through the first nine weeks of the 2022 season. That number will increase significantly over the month of November and the final weeks of the season with three of the Gators' final four contests being away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
The slate of road games starts this week in College Station as Florida travels west to take on an underwhelming Texas A&M Aggies that sit at just 3-5 on the year and 1-4 in the SEC, well below what was expected following an offseason loaded with hype for Jimbo Fisher's squad.
Even with the team's disappointment in mind, Texas A&M is viewed as a three-point favorite over Florida entering the matchup, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under has been set at 55.5 points.
You can find All Gators' picks and predictions for the Gators' matchup with the Aggies below.
Zach Goodall (5-3): Texas A&M 24, Florida 21
Note: I made this prediction prior to reports surfacing that Texas A&M would be without numerous contributors due to illness and injury, including projected starting quarterback Conner Weigman. I won't officially change my prediction considering the timing of the report, but wanted to make note that if this news had come out prior to this story being published, I would have picked the Gators to win.
Even amid Florida's struggles this season, I had begun to like the Gators' chances against the Aggies weeks ago. In fact, I might have even picked UF over A&M if this game took place in, say, Week 7 instead of Week 10 before the Gators began a two-game slide.
Texas A&M has been brutally disappointing this season. It might be hard to remember that the Aggies compiled the greatest recruiting class in college football history last year due to the headache-inducing noise coming from the calls for head coach Jimbo Fisher's job, nine months removed from the haul of prospects being finalized under his watch.
However, Florida has proven over its last two matchups that it remains removed from truly competing with the more talented teams of the SEC.
While UF's third-quarter comeback attempt against Georgia was inspiring this past weekend, the Gators got into a 25-point hole the quarter before and were also down as many as 21 points to a previously unranked LSU in their matchup before the UGA game. Both teams rank above Florida and within the top ten of 247Sports' team talent composite rankings.
Texas A&M does, too, standing at No. 4 in the country in that respect.
With home-field advantage, a talent gap and some life within their offense thanks to the debut of freshman quarterback Conner Weigman in their favor — his 338-yard showing gave A&M a chance to upset No. 15 Ole Miss last week — I feel obligated to pick the Aggies here and I can see them snapping a four-game losing streak (three games on the road) of their own.
It'll be a close one, though. Texas A&M's rushing defense is one of the worst in the conference and will be vulnerable to Florida's running back tandem of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne, who I am expecting a touchdown apiece from on Saturday.
Brandon Carroll (5-3): Florida 35, Texas A&M 33
The 4-4 (1-4 SEC) record that the Florida Gators currently hold tells the story that was largely expected when Billy Napier took over the unit in December: They're a mediocre team in need of roster reinforcements moving forward.
However, the losses they've suffered come at the hands of three top-ten teams and a Kentucky team that until this week, after a loss to No. 1 Tennessee, graced the top 25 since the season's beginning. And, for the most part, they've remained semi-competitive against the top-tier programs in college football this year while triumphing over the teams they should beat, even if it’s not to the degree some expect.
I think much of the same remains when they travel to Texas A&M. But, which side of the coin do the 3-5 Aggies land on?
I think they’re on the latter.
Florida has dropped two in a row, which could very well result in a snowball effect throughout the rest of the year. But, showing promise in both games — pairing explosiveness offensively against LSU and flashes defensively and a third-quarter flurry against Georgia — the Gators have things to build on in the final four games.
Traveling to College Station for a matchup against another struggling unit, Florida has the potential to right the ship in a comforting way to finish the season. Those signs of improvement are imperative for a first-year staff to pitch to upcoming talent.
That's my long-winded way of prefacing that while I don't think there is a convincing, logical argument for picking either of these underperforming squads to win on Saturday, I'm optimistic (I don't know how) about Florida's chances.
The thing I'll hinge my argument on is the Gators' ability to produce on the ground against an A&M defense that ranks 120th in the nation against the run this season. Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. have the open window to elevate the Gators beyond the Aggies in a matchup I view to be as even as it gets.
As a result, despite Texas A&M holding the home-field advantage and boasting the considerable edge in overall talent, my gut tells me this is a close game all the way through that the Gators can pull out in the end.
The Florida backfield will be the difference in the game as a whole.
CJ Clarke (6-2): Florida 27, Texas A&M 24
In my preseason record prediction before we kicked off the year, I had this game against Texas A&M penciled in as a loss due to the overwhelming talent gap on the rosters that includes an uber-talented group of freshmen for the Aggies that made up the number one recruiting class in history.
Now, I’m not so sure about that.
While the Gators have not looked great this year, the team over in College Station seems to be in a bit of disarray. They are on their third starting QB, missing two RBs, and three freshmen from that talented class have now been suspended indefinitely.
All signs point toward true freshman passer Conner Weigman starting again this week after an impressive performance against Ole Miss where he threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in the loss. Regardless of the suspensions and team mayhem, the Aggies do still have plenty of playmakers, headlined by RB Devon Achane who has nearly 1,000 yards of total offense this year, and a true freshman WR that many Gator fans are familiar with, Evan Stewart.
Florida will have to find a way to limit explosive plays on defense and keep those dynamic playmakers in check, something the Gators have struggled to do consistently throughout the year.
I feel like l have been saying this all year, but the Gators' best chance to win this game is by shortening the game and running the football. Texas A&M’s run defense is abysmal ranked 120th in the country giving up more than 200 yards per game.
If Florida can be patient on offense and lean on running backs Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, they will be able to work the clock, shorten the game, and keep Achane, Stewart and Weigman off the field. If they are able to do that then they will have a chance to win their first SEC road game under Billy Napier.
Chris Thornton (1-0): Florida 35, Texas A&M 24
Chris Thornton joined All Gators' prediction story in Week 10
Despite the Gators entering this week's game against the Aggies on a two-game skid, I have a surprising amount of optimism that UF's offense, specifically, the run game, will be able to kick it up a notch and really fire on all cylinders.
Although I think Anthony Richardson could very well have a big day on the ground, my eyes are toward running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne. Etienne enters the game with touchdowns in his last two games and Johnson Jr. is the only Gators back this year to have over 100 rushing yards in a game.
My guess is Texas A&M will remain competitive for much of the game with freshman quarterback Conner Weigman providing the offense a spark, but it will not be enough to keep up with a potentially potent and fatal Gators rushing attack.
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